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Daily Technical Analysis

EUR: A sustained break above 1.2850 later today

Mon, Nov 20 2006, 08:11 GMT
by Nicole Elliott

Mizuho Corporate Bank  |  View company's profile


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EUR

Comment: Trapped in a narrow range between the mid-point and the upper edge of the trading band of the last six months. A sustained break above 1.2850 later today should set off a squeeze to increasingly important resistance at 1.2900.

Strategy: Buy at 1.2840, adding to 1.2790; stop below 1.2745. Short term target 1.2880/1.2900.

EUR/JPY

Comment: Consolidating neatly at record highs. The cross is no longer overbought and momentum remains bullish. Implied volatility is at record lows. Sooner rather than later this pair should break higher.

Strategy: Attempt small longs on a dip to 151.10/150.90; stop well below 150.50. Short term target 151.45 and 155.00 medium term.

GBP

Comment: Bouncing nicely from the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and 26-day average, which happen to lie in the middle of the broad band of the last three months. With a little luck prices will hold above 1.8900 this morning, setting up for a short squeeze above 1.9000. Note that Cable is not overbought and that momentum is just bullish. Open interest has slumped since the 10th of this month.

Strategy: Buy at 1.8945, adding to 1.8900; stop below 1.8830. Short term target 1.9050 then 1.9150.

JPY

Comment: Still stuck in a narrow range, inside a fat Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Momentum is neutral and so is the RSI. Hopefully this holiday-shortened week will see price action get a little more interesting, with downside pressure building the longer we hold below the 118.20 area. For today expect messy work roughly between 117.20 and 118.20, noting that weekly trendline support lies at 116.75.

Strategy: Sell at 117.85/118.20; stop above 118.60. Short term target 117.25/117.00.


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