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Daily Outlook

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0

0

EUR/USD

Fri, Jul 10 2009, 08:23 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Elliott Wave Analysis

For more information and subscription to the full daily and weekly Elliott Wave analysis on Majors please e-mail to Dimo Dimov If you'd like to receive the daily updates for the US stock indices, please e-mail to anikolov@karoll.net

As you know my working count suggests that the fall started from 1.4339 (3 June) is wave 4 of a terminal impulse (ending diagonal). My wave count for it is presented on the chart. When the triangle in the position of wave B of 4 is over, I would expect a sharp fall in wave C with minimum target 1.3738 and most likely target 1.3500. A confirmation for this idea will be below 1.3833. A key resistance is 1.4200. With an eye on my bearish expectations I stay on the short position opened last week.

Trading strategy: 03:34 EST; 08:34 GMT

Short position from 1.3999, stop loss - 1.4205, target – open

Published on Fri, Jul 10 2009, 08:23 GMT

1

0

EUR/GBP

Wed, Jul 8 2009, 12:29 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Working count for EUR/GBP for the last two weeks movement. The recovery started from the reached low 0.8399 (22.06.2009) is corrective in nature and is developing as a flat correction. Wave C of it is a terminal impulse (ending diagonal) which should be already over. In such a case one should expect a sharp and strong sell-off for a low below 0.8399. A first signal for this idea will be a fall below 0.8616 and confirmation – below 0.8580. A key support is 0.8715 and a rise above it will abort the presented count. With an eye on the expected sell-off I am currently on a short position.

EUR/GBP

Trading strategy: 07:37 EST; 12:37 GMT

Short position from (0.8638), stop loss - 0.8720, target – open

Published on Wed, Jul 8 2009, 12:29 GMT

3

0

EUR/USD

Fri, Jul 3 2009, 10:32 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

EUR/USD has formed at least few years high last year at 1.6038 (15.07.2008). The subsequent sell-off was very sharp but turned out to be corrective in nature – flat correction. Wave A of it finished at 1.2549 (4 December 2008) and the following movement is wave B. My wave count for the said wave B is presented on the chart. I label it as a flat with currently developing wave c as a terminal impulse with extended fifth wave. This terminal impulse is still far from completing and I expect initial fall below 1.3738 (the most natural target is 1.3500) in wave iv. When wave iv is over, I would expect a sharp rise in wave v of c for 1.5500 (the minimum length for wave 5 in such a case is the length of the beginning of wave 1 to the end of wave 3). From a short term point of view I am currently short after yesterday’s fall below 1.4000 and I will look later for a level for a strategic long position once I see a fall below 1.3738

Trading strategy: 05:30 EST; 10:30 GMT

Short position from 1.3999, stop loss - 1.4205, target – open

Published on Fri, Jul 3 2009, 10:32 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY

Wed, Jul 1 2009, 07:55 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows the USD/JPY movement since the start of the year. It is corrective in nature and is developing as a zigzag. Wave B of it is a triangle which could be already over. If this is the case, one should expect a rise in wave C for a high above 101.44 and my personal expectations are for a movement toward 105.00. A confirmation for such a bullish scenario will be above 98.87. On the other side a fall below 93.85 will make the situation bearish for a new low below 87.11. From a short term point of view I was able to find a level for a relatively close stop loss so I entered long earlier today

Trading strategy: 03:52 EST; 08:52 GMT

Long position from 96.85, stop loss - 95.90, target – open

Trading strategy: 02:50 EST; 07:50 GMT

Buy at market (96.85), stop loss - 95.90, target – open

Published on Wed, Jul 1 2009, 07:55 GMT

9

0

GBP/USD

Thu, Jun 25 2009, 14:12 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my working count for GBP/USD for the last month. I think a bearish triangle is developing which could complete the whole rise started from this year’s low 1.3503 (23.01.2009). If this is the case, one should expect at least 61.8 % retracement of this year’s rise – the corresponding level is 1.4685. A firs signal for this extremely bearish idea is a fall below 1.6185 and confirmation – below 1.5800. A key resistance is yesterday’s high 1.6601. With an eye on these extremely bearish expectations I entered yesterday a short position

Trading strategy: 08:56 EST; 13:56 GMT

Short position from 1.6530, stop loss - 1.6630, target – open

Published on Thu, Jun 25 2009, 14:12 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD

Mon, Jun 8 2009, 12:40 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my working count for the movement started from 1.6038 (15.07.2008). I think it is corrective in nature and is developing as a flat correction. Wave A of it turned out to be a double corrective combination ended with a triangle. Wave B is currently developing. It has as a minimum requirement new high above 1.4718 (18.12.2008 high) but more natural target is 1.5500. From a shorter term point of view we are currently in wave c of B. I think it will turn out to be a terminal impulse (ending diagonal) with extended wave 5. If this is the case, we should see initial losses in wave 4 below 1.3738 (the end of wave 1) – the most likely downside target is 1.3500. When the wave 4 is completed, one should expect new sharp rise in wave 5 to 1.5500.

With an eye on the short term bearish picture I stay on the short position opened last week and once I see a fall below 1.3738, I will start to look for an entry level for a strategic long position

Trading strategy: 08:19 EST; 13:19 GMT

Short position from 1.4270, stop loss - 1.4345, target – 1.3500

Published on Mon, Jun 8 2009, 12:40 GMT

10

0

EUR/USD

Mon, Apr 27 2009, 13:48 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows the movement after the last week’s low 1.2885. The rise to 1.3300 is spectacular and is at first glance wave 1 of a rise from one higher degree. This scenario will become favored if the euro stays above 1.3044 (61.8 % retracement of the said rise) and rises above 1.3300 later.

However there is also an alternative scenario – the said rise to be wave C of a complex corrective structure and in such a case one should expect a sharp sell-off below 1.2885.

Both scenarios are real possibilities and I can not objectively favor any of them. However my feeling is that the bearish scenario will develop so I try to enter short with close stop loss.

Trading strategy: 09:19 EST; 14:19 GMT

Sell on recovery to 1.3170, stop loss - 1.3240, target - open

Published on Mon, Apr 27 2009, 13:48 GMT

7

1

GBP/USD

Wed, Apr 22 2009, 12:11 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

As you know I count the rise started from 1.3654 (11 march) as wave C of a flat correction developed since 1.3503 (23 January). This wave C is a terminal impulse (ending diagonal) which ended at 1.5065 (16 April). The break of the 2-4 trendline as well as the fall below the end of wave 4 is a confirmation for the presented count. In such a case one should expect a sharp sell-off in coming days with minimum requirement 1.3654 and more natural target the zone around 1.3000. From a short term point of view we are currently in a correction of the fall started in the end of the last week. This correction still could reach a high above yesterday’s 1.4708 however if my idea is correct, it should be limited to 1.4835 (61.8 % retracement of the fall started from 1.5065) and the expected sharp sell-off of at least 1000 pips should follow. A key support is 1.4466 and a fall below it will be a confirmation that the expected fall has begun. With an eye on these extremely bearish expectations I stay on my short position opened in the end of the last week.

Trading strategy: 07:56 EST; 12:56 GMT

Short position from 1.4878, stop loss - 1.4850, target - open

Published on Wed, Apr 22 2009, 12:11 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD

Fri, Apr 17 2009, 09:33 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

I assume the rise started from 1.3503 as a flat correction which has probably finished yesterday at 1.5065. Wave C of this correction developed as a terminal impulse (ending diagonal) and if this is the case we should see a sharp sell off for a low below 1.3503 in coming month and a half. A fall below 1.4600 (the low of the potential wave 4 of C) will be a confirmation for my idea. A key resistance is 1.5000. With an eye on these extremely bearish expectations I entered a short position yesterday.

Trading strategy: 05:14 EST; 10:14 GMT

Short position from 1.4878, stop loss - 1.5000, target - open

Published on Fri, Apr 17 2009, 09:33 GMT

7

1

GBP/USD

Wed, Apr 8 2009, 10:05 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my count for GBP/USD since the reached low 1.3503. I think that a flat correction is developing from this level with wave C of it currently under way. I suggest that this wave C will turn out to be a terminal impulse (ending diagonal) and if this is the case, we should see initial rise to 1.5000 followed by a sharp sell-off below 1.3500. From a short term point of view we should be currently in wave 4 of the said wave C. There is still no confirmation for the end of wave 4 of C but I entered long position (I should admit that it is too risky at the moment)

Trading strategy: 05:53 EST; 10:53 GMT

Long position from 1.4705, stop loss - 1.4580, target - 1.4960

Published on Wed, Apr 8 2009, 10:05 GMT

3

0

EUR/USD

Mon, Apr 6 2009, 15:24 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my working count. It suggests that we have a corrective fall developed as a double corrective combination ended with a triangle, followed by a corrective recovery. Today’s fall below 1.3516 confirmed this idea so I closed my Friday’s long position below it and turned short. If my idea is correct, we should see an acceleration of the fall with potential target 1.3100. A key resistance is today’s high 1.3581.

Trading strategy: 11:05 EST; 16:05 GMT

The long position from 1.3402 was closed at 1.3515 with profit 113 pips

Short position from 1.3515, stop loss - 1.3585, target - open

Trading strategy: 03:03 EST; 08:03 GMT

Long position from 1.3402, move the stop loss from 1.3310 to 1.3515 (stop and reverse), target - open

Published on Mon, Apr 6 2009, 15:24 GMT

1

0

EUR/USD

Fri, Apr 3 2009, 15:23 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

As you know I expected few days ago a fall of the euro to 1.2884. However the market has clearly shown that the direction is not down so I was forced to change my working count. The new one is presented on the chart and upon it the euro should be expected to be up from here. A confirmation of the presented idea will be above 1.3500. With an eye on this I entered a long position today.

Trading strategy: 10:08 EST; 15:08 GMT

Long position from 1.3402, stop loss - 1.3310, target - open

Trading strategy: 08:56 EST; 13:56 GMT

Buy at market (1.3402), stop loss - 1.3310, target - open

Published on Fri, Apr 3 2009, 15:23 GMT

12

2

EUR/USD

Wed, Apr 1 2009, 13:24 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

As you know I think that the rise of the euro started from 1.2457 (3 March) finished with a bearish triangle as is shown on the chart. So in my opinion the fall should reach at least 1.2884 (61.8 % retracement of the rise started from the beginning of Mach). The first phase of this fall finished at 1.3113 and a correction started from there. It has a potential to reach one more yesterday’s high 1.3341. However I expect later beginning a new fall with minimum target the indicated 1.2884. A key resistance is 1.3590 (but this level is currently too far from the market). A key support is 1.3113

Trading strategy: 06:46 EST; 11:46 GMT

Short position from 1.3280

Exit the short position at market (1.3237) with profit 43 pips

Sell again on up-move to 1.3340, stop loss - 1.3450, target - open

Published on Wed, Apr 1 2009, 13:24 GMT

5

2

EUR/USD

Mon, Mar 30 2009, 08:44 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my working count for the rise started from 1.2546. I think it is corrective in nature and finished with a bearish triangle. If this is the case, one should expect a correction of minimum 61.8 % retracement i.e. 1.2885. With an eye on this idea I entered short position on the break of the said triangle. A key resistance is 1.3465 with is 61.8 % retracement of today’s sell-off.

Trading strategy: 11:45 EST; 15:45 GMT

Short position from 1.3417, stop loss - 1.3540, target - 1.2900

Trading strategy: 06:04 EST; 10:04 GMT

Sell on break of 1.3418 (sell stop order at 1.3417), stop loss - 1.3540, target - 1.2900

Published on Mon, Mar 30 2009, 08:44 GMT

1

0

USD/JPY

Fri, Mar 20 2009, 16:15 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows the movement after the reached high 99.66. I think it is corrective in nature and is developing as a double corrective combination with its second phase currently under way. I suggest it will turn out to be a triangle but there are also other alternatives. When the correction is over, one should expect new rise to 100 yen per dollar. With an eye on this I will look for entry level for a long position but only when I have a clear pattern. Until then I prefer to be flat.

Published on Fri, Mar 20 2009, 16:15 GMT

0

2

GBP/USD

Fri, Mar 20 2009, 11:27 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 06:28 EST; 10:58 GMT

The long position from 1.4532 was closed at 1.4462 with loss 70 pips

Buy again at market (1.4455), stop loss - 1.4300, target - open

Published on Fri, Mar 20 2009, 11:27 GMT

1

0

GBP/USD

Fri, Mar 20 2009, 08:27 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 04:23 EST; 08:23 GMT

Buy on dips to 1.4532, stop loss - 1.4462, target - open

Published on Fri, Mar 20 2009, 08:27 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD

Fri, Mar 20 2009, 08:22 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 04:15 EST; 08:15 GMT

Buy on dips to 1.3615, stop loss - 1.3530, target - 1.3740

Published on Fri, Mar 20 2009, 08:22 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD

Thu, Mar 19 2009, 15:54 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 11:40 EST; 15:40 GMT

The short position from 1.4036 was closed at 1.4000 with profit 36 pips

Stand aside

Published on Thu, Mar 19 2009, 15:54 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY

Thu, Mar 19 2009, 15:22 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 11:14 EST; 15:14 GMT

Short position from 98.05, stop loss - 98.90, target - 95.70

Published on Thu, Mar 19 2009, 15:22 GMT

2

0

USD/JPY

Wed, Mar 18 2009, 17:39 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 12:27 EST; 16:27 GMT

Short position from 98.05, stop loss - 98.90, target - 95.70

Published on Wed, Mar 18 2009, 17:39 GMT

1

0

EUR/USD

Wed, Mar 18 2009, 15:20 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my working count for the rise started from this month’s low 1.2457. The up-move is very strong but I think that we deal not with an impulse but with a complex corrective combination. If this assumption proves to be correct, the said up-move should be part of a triangle (unfinished yet) which means that the expected stronger up-move for a re-test of 1.4718 high is still not started. With an eye on the above thoughts I exited yesterday the long position opened on Monday and even tried to sell unsuccessfully two times with close stop loss. However nevertheless of the market strength, I still expect a fall of at least 61.8 % retracement of the movement started from 1.2457. If the high is already seen (this is not likely upon me because a test of 1.3200 could be expected), the corresponding level is 1.2720. A first signal for this scenario will be a break below 1.2986 so I put a sell stop order below this level. Only a sharp rise from here of at least 200-300 pips will abort the idea for a forthcoming fall and will prove that the rise is impulsive, not corrective as I think.

Trading strategy: 10:50 EST; 14:50 GMT

The short position from 1.3010 was closed at 1.3075 with loss 65 pips

Sell again on break of 1.2986(sell stop order at 1.2985), stop loss - 1.3160, target – 1.2720

Published on Wed, Mar 18 2009, 15:20 GMT

2

0

GBP/USD

Wed, Mar 18 2009, 10:35 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 05:36 EST; 09:36 GMT

Short position from 1.4036, move the stop loss from 1.4120 to 1.4000, change the target from target 1.3840 to open

Published on Wed, Mar 18 2009, 10:35 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD

Wed, Mar 18 2009, 09:05 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 04:37 EST; 08:37 GMT

The short position from 1.2951 was closed at 1.3005 with loss 54 pips Sell again at market (1.3010), stop loss - 1.3075, target - open

Published on Wed, Mar 18 2009, 09:05 GMT

1

1

GBP/USD

Tue, Mar 17 2009, 15:20 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The rise of cable started from 1.3654 is corrective in nature and has probably finished at 1.4228. If this is the case, one should expect a deeper correction or direct fall below 1.3654. My working count is presented on the chart and it suggests further decline which could be impulsive or corrective. As long as cable stays below 1.4020, I would favor the impulsive scenario while in a case of a break above it – the corrective scenario. I do not want to lower the stop loss very close to the current market so I put it just above 1.4114 high

Trading strategy: 10:10 EST; 14:10 GMT

Short position from 1.4036, move the stop loss from 1.4140 to 1.4120, change the target from target 1.3855 to 1.3840

Trading strategy: 03:20 EST; 07:20 GMT

Sell at market (1.4036), stop loss - 1.4140 (stop and reverse), target - 1.3855

Published on Tue, Mar 17 2009, 15:20 GMT

1

0

USD/JPY

Tue, Mar 17 2009, 09:10 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 05:07 EST; 09:07 GMT

Sell on break of 98.06 (sell stop order at 98.05), stop loss - 98.90, target - 95.70

Published on Tue, Mar 17 2009, 09:10 GMT

1

0

EUR/USD

Tue, Mar 17 2009, 09:01 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 04:43 EST; 08:43 GMT

Sell on break of 1.2952 (sell stop order at 1.2951), stop loss - 1.3005, target - open

Published on Tue, Mar 17 2009, 09:01 GMT

1

0

GBP/USD

Tue, Mar 17 2009, 08:27 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 03:20 EST; 07:20 GMT

Sell at market (1.4036), stop loss - 1.4140 (stop and reverse), target - 1.3855

Published on Tue, Mar 17 2009, 08:27 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD

Mon, Mar 16 2009, 10:47 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

chart 8

The chart shows my working count which is unchanged for months. Currently there are conditions for a trend reversal after today’s break above the previous high 1.2991 so I entered long on break of the said high. If this is true, we should see an acceleration of the up-move in coming weeks and months with minimum target a re-test of the 1.4718 high. However I have to admit that my confidence is still low because the movement started from 1.2491 could be wave c of a bullish triangle. However I keep in mind that if the trend is already changed and the expected rise to 1.4718 has already started, there is a risk to miss this movement so I made a decision to enter long with relatively close stop loss.

Trading strategy: 10:50 EST; 14:50 GMT

Long position from 1.2995, stop loss - 1.2880, target - open

Published on Mon, Mar 16 2009, 10:47 GMT

1

0

USD/JPY

Fri, Mar 13 2009, 16:03 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows the movement after the reached high 99.66. The fall to 95.66 is obviously corrective in nature. This means that a new rise above 99.66 is forthcoming. The question here is if this will happen directly from current levels or after one more low below 95.66. I shown both possibilities on the chart and a key support upon me is 97.13. A fall below it will signal possible initial low below 95.66 before the expected rise above 99.66. On the other side as long as the dollar stays above the indicated support, the scenario for a direct rise is still possible. I don’t have any partiality for any of the shown scenarios so I prefer to be neutral until the situation becomes clearer.

Published on Fri, Mar 13 2009, 16:03 GMT

1

0

GBP/USD

Wed, Mar 11 2009, 15:10 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows the movement started from 1.4304 (6 March). I think that it is impulsive in nature and we have 5 completed waves down. If this is the case, one should expect at least corrective recovery with minimum requirement 1.3900. A key support is today’s low 1.3654 and in a case of a fall below it, I will look for an alternative count. With an eye on the possibility for a short term recovery I entered long earlier today.

Trading strategy: 03:18 EST; 08:18 GMT
Buy at market (1.3758), stop loss - 1.3650, target - 1.3900

Published on Wed, Mar 11 2009, 15:10 GMT

2

0

EUR/USD

Mon, Mar 9 2009, 16:18 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my working count which I follow from months. It suggests that the fall started from 1.4718 is corrective in nature and is wave B of a flat correction. If I am right one should expect a rise in wave C for a re-test of the 1.4718 high. The big problem here is to find an entry level for a strategic long position with relatively close stop loss. As you know I tried several times to buy in the last few weeks for the expected rise to 1.5000, but when the market didn’t rise I was forced to exit my long positions. Currently the short term picture is unclear and don’t give any signal for a forthcoming sharp rise. However two additional facts make me think that the low is either seen or will be seen in a few days time. The first is the shown triple divergence on the MACD indicator which is a potential very bullish signal. The other fact is the very strong up-move in EUR/GBP started few days ago which should accelerate upon me and should target the parity between the Euro and the British pound i.e. levels of 1.0000. With an eye on the above written I entered a long position earlier today (I should admit that it is too risky at the moment)

Trading strategy: 07:18 EST; 12:18 GMT

Short position from 1.2690 Exit the short position at market (1.2590) with profit 100 pips

Buy at market (1.2590), stop loss - 1.2525, target - open

Published on Mon, Mar 9 2009, 16:18 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD

Wed, Feb 18 2009, 16:18 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

My wave count for GBP/USD is presented on the chart. I think there is a high possibility that the movement started from 1.4977 (high from 9 February) could hit a new record low below 1.3503 (low from 23 January). If this assumption turns out to be correct, we should see an impulsive fall. Wave 1 of it finished at 1.4137 and wave 2 started from there. One of the possibilities is that wave 2 is already over at 1.4604 and the current fall is beginning of wave 3 for the anticipated low below 1.3500. However I think that the more likely scenario is that at 1.4604 finished not the entire wave 2 but a wave of one lesser degree – wave a of 2 i.e. wave 2 will turn out to be a complex irregular flat structure. If this is the case, one should expect one more attempt up in wave c with potential 1.4500 before the wave 2 is over and beginning of a sharp sell-off below 1.3500 in wave 3. The alternative is the fall started from 1.4977 to be not impulsive but corrective, However even if this scenario is developing, I would expect lower levels from current ones.

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Feb 18 2009, 16:18 GMT

9

0

EUR/USD

Mon, Jan 19 2009, 15:57 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

It shows my working count for the rise started from 1.3026. I think it is corrective in nature and finished this morning at 1.3363 with a bearish triangle. The forthcoming sell-off is a confirmation for the presented idea and the most likely downside target is a new low below 1.3026 till the end of the week. Currently even if we see some recovery of the euro, it should be temporary. With an eye on this I stay on my morning’s short position and the target will be determined later.
Trading strategy: 10:44 EST; 15:44 GMT
Short position from 1.3288, stop loss - 1.3370, target - open
Trading strategy: 03:56 EST; 08:56 GMT
Sell at market (1.3288), stop loss - 1.3370, target - open

Published on Mon, Jan 19 2009, 15:57 GMT

4

0

EUR/USD

Tue, Dec 9 2008, 14:45 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows the last few weeks movement which is developing in a triangle. Currently, the more likely scenario for this triangle is to be bearish one with downside target 1.1650. A first signal for this idea will be a break below the lower trendline of the triangle and confirmation below 1.2445. A key resistance level is 1.3081.

Trading strategy: 09:09 EST; 14:09 GMT

Short position from 1.2837), stop loss - 1.3000, target - open

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Dec 9 2008, 14:45 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Nov 17 2008, 16:43 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my working count for EUR/USD. As is shown on the chart, the movement after 1.2388 is sideways in huge borders 1.2328 – 1.3297. All movements shown on the charts are corrective in nature which signals a potential triangle started from 1.3228. If this idea proves to be correct, we should see further sideways movement in coming weeks and I guess we could be in wave C of the potential triangle. Only a fall below 1.2388 would signal that the triangle could be already over with potential downside target 1.1640. However as long as this level stays unbroken, I will favor long positions to 1.2900 as is shown on the chart.

Trading strategy: 10:50 EST; 15:50 GMT

Long position from 1.2536, stop loss - 1.2385, target - open

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Nov 17 2008, 16:43 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Sep 1 2008, 13:48 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

chart 5

The chart shows my working count. I think that the last two weeks movement is a bearish triangle which could be already over. In such a case one should expect a new low below 1.4570 from here (possible target is 1.4500). From short term point of view a key resistance is 1.4666. As long as we stay below it, I would favor the scenario for a finished triangle and a direct fall below 1.4570. However in a case of a rise above it, I would assume that wave E of the triangle is not over yet and I would expect in such a case a rise to 1.4730 prior to beginning of the expected movement for a low below 1.4570

Trading strategy: 09:35 EST; 14:35 GMT

Short position from 1.4775 (double position) and additions to it from 1.4738 (double position), 1.4723 (double position) and 1.4619 (double position), stop loss for the whole position - 1.4670, target - 1.4500

Confidence level - high

Published on Mon, Sep 1 2008, 13:48 GMT

1

0

EUR/USD daily

Tue, Aug 26 2008, 08:47 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

EURUSD chart

The chart shows my working count for the movement started from 1.4629. I think that this level is a temporary bottom and we should see some recovery in next 2-3 months to 1.5150 – 1.5500 zone. This movement should be corrective in nature which suggests big movements in both sides but euro should not fell below 1.4629 and the overall short term trend should be up.

My shorter term wave count is shown on the chart and I expect to be currently in wave C for a high above 1.4907. With an eye on this idea I entered long. In a case of a fall below 1.4694 there will be a signal that wave B is not over yet but 1.4629 should stay out of reach for the moment.

Trading strategy: 10:06 EST; 15:06 GMT

Long position from 1.4755 and addition to it from 1.4755, stop loss - 1.4690, target - open

Add to the long position again on dips to 1.4765, stop loss - 1.4690, target - open

Confidence level - high

Published on Tue, Aug 26 2008, 08:47 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Aug 11 2008, 15:57 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

chart

It looks like that the euro finally found a temporary bottom and some correction started. The chart shows my count for the said correction and I expect at least one more high above 1.5082. A key support is 1.4905 and as long as it stays unbroken, further recovery should be expected. However with an eye on the heavy last week's sell-off, this recovery should be only a correction prior no new fall below 1.4905

Trading strategy: 11:14 EST; 16:14 GMT

Long position from 1.4995, stop loss – 1.4900, target - open

Addition to the long position from 1.5008, stop loss – 1.4965, target - 1.5085

Confidence level - low

Published on Mon, Aug 11 2008, 15:57 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Aug 4 2008, 14:59 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

chart 2

I look at the fall started from 1.6038 as a corrective movement which suggests new record high once the current correction is over. The problem with the corrective movements is that they could develop in many different scenarios which makes the trading very difficult. My working count suggests that the said fall is developing as a triple corrective combination with currently developing third phase as a triangle. A key support upon the presented count is 1.5515. A key resistance is 1.5700.

Trading strategy: 10:11 EST; 14:11 GMT

Long position from 1.5590, stop loss - 1.5510, target – open

Add to the long position at market (1.5599), stop loss – 1.5550, target - open

Confidence level - low

Published on Mon, Aug 4 2008, 14:59 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Jul 28 2008, 08:25 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

chart 1

The chart shows my working count for the fall started from 1.6038. It is clear that I look at this movement as double corrective combination which ends with a triangle. This triangle could be already over so I started to build a long position because if my idea is correct, a movement for a new record high could start from here. A first signal for my idea will be above 1.5724 and a confirmation will be above 1.5752. A key support is 1.5626.

Trading strategy: 03:36 EST; 08:36 GMT

Long position from 1.5732, stop loss - 1.5625, target - open

Add again to the long position on break of 1.5727 (buy stop order at 1.5728), stop loss - 1.5680, target – open

Add again to the long position on break of 1.5755 (buy stop order at 1.5756), stop loss - 1.5680, target – open

Confidence level - high

Published on Mon, Jul 28 2008, 08:25 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Jul 23 2008, 15:10 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

chart 1

The chart shows the movement started from 2.0146. I think that it is a flat correction and could be already over. In such a case one should expect a new rise from here for a move above 2.0146. A key resistance is 2.0074. A key support is 1.9906

Trading strategy: 10:56 EST; 15:56 GMT

Long position from 1.9995, stop loss – 1.9905, target - open

Confidence level - medium

Trading strategy: 10:28 EST; 15:28 GMT

Buy at market (1.9995), stop loss – 1.9905, target - open

Confidence level - medium

Published on Wed, Jul 23 2008, 15:10 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Jul 16 2008, 15:49 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The cable fell significantly after yesterday’s high 2.0146. The big question here is if the said fall is impulsive or corrective in nature. In fact it is still unclear if we have a 1-2-3 or A-B-C movement so to avoid any risk I move the stop loss of today’s short position below the entry level. A fall below 1.9969 followed by an acceleration of the down movement would be in favor of the impulsive scenario. On the other side a rise above 2.0037 would signal that the corrective scenario is developing.

Trading strategy: 10:40 EST; 15:40 GMT

Short position from 2.0045, move the stop loss from 2.0101 to 2.0043, target - open

Trading strategy: 05:12 EST; 10:12 GMT

Sell at market (2.0045), stop loss - 2.0101, target - open

Confidence level – medium

Published on Wed, Jul 16 2008, 15:49 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Jul 14 2008, 15:23 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

chart 1

The euro fell sharply from today’s high 1.5970 to 1.5840. There was a possibility this move to be an impulse but it is no more likely after current rebound. It is clear now that the fall shown on the chart is corrective in nature and is probably wave A of a flat correction. In such a case we are currently in wave B with minimum requirement 1.5920 (61.8 % retracement of wave A). I would expect thereafter one more fall in wave C for a low below 1.5840.

I entered today a risky short position because there was a possibility for a sell-off but now I will look for an exit level for my main position. I will leave the target open at the moment and will determine it later when there is more clearness how deep will be the expected fall below 1.5840. A key resistance is 1.5970 and in a case of a break above it, a retest of 1.6018 high is inevitable

Trading strategy: 11:17 EST; 16:17 GMT

Short position from 1.5896, stop loss - 1.6025, target - open

Addition to the short position from 1.5870 was closed at 1.5915 with loss 45 pips

Confidence level – changed from medium to low

Published on Mon, Jul 14 2008, 15:23 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Jul 9 2008, 13:47 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

chart 2

The chart shows my working count for the fall started from 2.0004. I think that it developed as a double corrective combination which ends with a triangle. This triangle could be already over and in such a case we should see an acceleration of the rise. A confirmation for this scenario will be above 1.9794. However one should keep in mind that as long as we stay below 1.9794, there will be no signal that triangle is already over and one more fall to 1.9670 could be expected. A key support is 1.9663

Trading strategy: 09:15 EST; 14:15 GMT

Long position from 1.9743, move the stop loss from 1.9645 to 1.9660, target - open

Add to the long position at market (1.9729), stop loss - 1.9660, target - open

Confidence level - medium

Published on Wed, Jul 9 2008, 13:47 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Jul 7 2008, 16:03 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

EUR/USD daily

The chart shows the movement after the 1.5909 high. I think today’s low 1.5610 could turn out to be a temporary low and in such a case a correction of the most recent sell-off could be currently under way. The minimum requirement for it should be 38.2 % retracement which is the target of my current long position. At this stage I do not expect stronger recovery so if we see the expected recovery, I will look for an entry level for a short position. A key support is today’s low 1.5610

Trading strategy: 10:08 EST; 15:08 GMT
Long position from 1.5650, stop loss - 1.5605, target - 1.5720

Confidence level - medium

Trading strategy: 05:03 EST; 10:03 GMT
Buy at market (1.5650), stop loss - 1.5605, target - 1.5720

Confidence level - medium

Published on Mon, Jul 7 2008, 16:03 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Jun 30 2008, 15:37 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Chart

The chart shows the movement after today’s high 1.5835. The subsequent fall looks impulsive as is shown on the chart. This was the reason to enter short two times today. My idea suggests that we should see at least one more low below 1.5738 later today or tomorrow. The big question here is if the movement started from 1.5835 to 1.5738 is wave 1 or wave A. The former scenario suggests sell-off in wave 3 with minimum requirement 161.8 % of the length of wave 1 while the latter scenario requires only minor low below 1.5738 followed by another rise above 1.5835. It is still unclear what exactly is going on so I prefer to be with an open target and to determine it later. A key resistance in 61.8 % retracement of today’s fall but I prefer the stop loss of the short position to be above some minor high so I put it at 1.5820

Trading strategy: 09:38 EST; 14:38 GMT

Short position from 1.5775, stop loss - 1.5820, target - open

Confidence level - medium

Published on Mon, Jun 30 2008, 15:37 GMT

1

0

USD/JPY daily

Fri, Jun 20 2008, 15:40 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows the movement after the 108.56 high. In my opinion this fall is corrective in nature so I expect one more high. With an eye on this idea I continue to be long but I have to admit that the stop loss at 107.20 could be taken. However I don’t want to move the stop loss lower because my risk tolerance does not allow me such an action. A key resistance at the moment is 108.06. Only a rise above it will signal that the expected move for a new high is already under way.

Trading strategy: 10:59 EST; 15:59 GMT

Long position from 107.53 + addition to it from 107.77, stop loss for the whole position 107.20, target for the whole position - 108.60

Confidence level – changed from medium to low

Published on Fri, Jun 20 2008, 15:40 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daiily

Mon, Jun 16 2008, 14:33 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows the movement stared from Friday’s low 1.5302. It is spectacular but I think that we deal with a corrective movement, not with an impulse. If this suggestion proves to be correct, a complex corrective combination is currently under way. When it finishes, one should expect a retreat of at least 61.8 % retracement (the corresponding level is 1.5385 if the movement is over at 1.5518). With an eye on this idea I entered short position which target will be determined later. A key resistance is 1.5586, not the current high 1.5518 because the movement started from 1.5302 could turn out a triple corrective combination (in such a case the current fall from 1.5518 could be a second wave X before another three waves movement up)

Trading strategy: 10:21 EST; 15:21 GMT
Short position from 1.5517, stop loss - 1.5590, target - open

Confidence level – changed from low to medium

Trading strategy: 09:22 EST; 14:22 GMT
Sell at market (1.5517), stop loss - 1.5590, target - open

Confidence level – low

Trading strategy: 05:12 EST; 10:12 GMT
Long position from 1.5375
Exit the long position at market (1.5431) with profit 56 pips
Stand aside

Trading strategy: 03:20 EST; 08:20 GMT
Buy at market (1.5375), stop loss - 1.5300 (stop and reverce) , target - open

Confidence level – medium

Published on Mon, Jun 16 2008, 14:33 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Fri, Jun 13 2008, 15:27 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

CCI Chart

The chart shows this weeks movement. I see at it as a potential terminal impulse and a fall below 107.62 (the end of the potential wave 4 of it) will be a first signal for the validity of this count. A further fall below 106.54 will be a confirmation and in such a case one should expect a sharp sell-off below 104.38 in 2-3 days time. With an eye on this possibility I gave a strategy to enter short on break of 107.62. However I do not dare to enter short before the 107.62 low is taken because there is also a bullish alternatives. A key resistance is 109.15

Trading strategy: 10:40 EST; 15:40 GMT

Sell on break of 107.62 (sell stop order at 107.61), stop loss - 108.20, target - open

Confidence level – medium

Published on Fri, Jun 13 2008, 15:27 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Fri, Jun 6 2008, 15:18 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Chart 1

The chart shows the movement started from 106.42. Nevertheless of the current sell-off of the dollar across the board, this movement looks like a flat correction which means that one move high above 106.42 is likely. However I do not want to enter long position at the moment because the movement started from 106.42 could turn out to be a complex corrective combination. With an eye on this I prefer to be neutral at the moment.

Trading strategy: 09:53 EST; 14:53 GMT
Stand aside

Trading strategy: 09:43 EST; 14:43 GMT
Short position from 105.85
Exit the short position at marlet (105.73) with profit 12 pips
Stand aside

Trading strategy: 08:58 EST; 13:58 GMT
Long position from 104.31 and the additions to it from 104.89 and from 105.33 were closed at 105.50 with total profit 197 pips

Sell at market (105.85), stop loss - 106.38 (stop and reverse), target - open

Confidence level – high

Trading strategy: 06:01 EST; 11:01 GMT
Long position from 104.31, stop profit - 105.50, target - 107.20
Addition to the long position from 104.89, stop profit - 105.50, target - 107.20
Addition to the long position from 105.33, stop profit - 105.50, target - 107.20

Confidence level – high

Published on Fri, Jun 6 2008, 15:18 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Jun 2 2008, 15:36 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Chart 1

I count the rise started from 1.5460 as a flat correction. In such a case we could be in the beginning of wave C of it so I entered long today. The minimum requirement for this pattern is a new high above 1.5568 but I think that the most logical targets are 1.5590 and 1.5680 which are the targets of the long positions. A key support is 1.5460

Trading strategy: 10:50 EST; 15:50 GMT

Long position from 1.5525, stop loss - 1.5455, target - open

Addition to the long position from 1.5518, stop loss - 1.5484, target - 1.5590

Confidence level –medium

Published on Mon, Jun 2 2008, 15:36 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Fri, May 30 2008, 14:53 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

USD/JPY daily

I think that the last week’s movement was a bullish triangle in the position of wave B and the current rise is wave C. The reached high 105.86 already fulfilled the minimum requirement for the length of wave C but I am still not sure that there will be no more highs because of the corrective retreat from 105.86. A possible resistance level is 107.00 while the support level is 104.10. I prefer to be currently neutral but I will look for an entry level for a short position next week.

Trading strategy:10:30 EST; 15:30 GMT

The short position from 105.07 was closed at 105.47 with loss 40 pips

Stand aside

Published on Fri, May 30 2008, 14:53 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, May 26 2008, 14:31 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

EUR/USD

I think that the fall started from 1.5813 (22 May) is developing as a flat correction. In such a case a low below 1.5690 should be expected in wave C. With an eye on this idea I entered short position on Friday. It is clear from the chart that I count wave B of the suggested flat as a complex corrective combination which ends with a triangle. This idea suggests that the euro will stay below 1.5770 so I move the stop loss of the short position to this level. On the other side a rise above 1.5770 should bring a high above 1.5793, but only above 1.5813 will be a bullish signal.

Trading strategy: 07:46 EST; 12:46 GMT

Short position from 1.5775, move the stop loss from 1.5820 to 1.5770, target - 1.5690

Confidence level – medium

Published on Mon, May 26 2008, 14:31 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Fri, May 23 2008, 13:36 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

I think that the rise started from 102.71 (21 May) is corrective in nature – double corrective combination which ends with a triangle. I suggest that it could be wave E of abearish triangle and I favor a sell-off from current levels. A fall below 102.71 will be a confirmation for my idea. From a short term point of view, I see 104.14 as a key resistance. As long as the dollar is below it, I would expect an acceleration of the fall. However in a case of a rise above it, this will be a bullish signal.

Trading strategy: 08:11 EST; 13:11 GMT

Short position from 103.75, stoploss - 104.20, target - open

Published on Fri, May 23 2008, 13:36 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, May 21 2008, 15:26 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

GBP/USD daily

The chart shows my working count fro cable. I think that the whole movement started from 2.0396 (14 March) has probably ended 1.9452 (19 May) with a triangle. I think that this fall is wave B and in such a case I would expect a rise above 2.0396 in wave C. That’s why I think that the long positions from here could have a very good upside potential. A key support is 1.9540 which is a little below 61.8 % retracement of the rise started from 1.9452. A resistance level is the high 1.9717 and a break above it will signal an acceleration of the up-move

Trading strategy: 11:21 EST; 16:21 GMT

Long position from 1.9620, stop loss - 1.9540, target - open

Confidence level – high

Trading strategy: 10:06 EST; 15:06 GMT

Buy on dips to 1.9620, stop loss - 1.9540, target - open

Confidence level – high

Published on Wed, May 21 2008, 15:26 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, May 19 2008, 08:16 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Chart 5

The chart shows the movement started from 1.5447 (Friday’s low). I think that the whole fall started from 1.6018 (22 April high) developed as a double corrective combination which ends with a triangle and finished there. If I am correct, one should expect at least deep retracement of the said fall (minimum 61.8 % retracement). With an eye on this idea I will try to enter long. An important support is 1.5500. In case of a fall below it one should expect a re-test of 1.5447 low but only below it will made the picture bearish. A rise above 1.5602 will signal that the up-move has already resumed.

Trading strategy: 03:53 EST; 18:53 GMT
Buy on dips to 1.5545 or on break of 1.5604 (buy stop order at 1.5605), stop loss - 1.5500 or 1.5555, target - open

Confidence level – high

Published on Mon, May 19 2008, 08:16 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, May 14 2008, 15:03 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Chart 1

The chart shows the last two weeks movement. I count it as wave C and when it is over, one should expect a reversal for a move back above 2.04. So the upside potential is very huge. The only problem is when wave C will be completed. I think that it could be already over and this was the reason for today’s long position. However I will lower the stop loss to 1.9330 because this is the important support, not today’s low. Looking to the upside only above 1.9632 will be a confirmation that the potential impulse shown on the chart is already over and the cable is being headed to 2.04

Trading strategy: 10:35 EST; 15:35 GMT

Long position from 1.9458, move the stop loss from 1.9360 to 1.9330, target - open

Confidence level – high

Published on Wed, May 14 2008, 15:03 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, May 12 2008, 15:39 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my working count for the rise started from 1.5282. I think that the movement to 1.5488 is corrective in nature. If this is the case, we should see initial fall minimum to 1.5360 prior to new powerful up-move. Earlier today there was a fall but only to 1.5364 followed by a rise above 1.5488. However I still think that we should see a move down at least to 1.5360 i.e. I don’t think that the up-move has resumed. However I will be neutral at the moment because my today’s short position was closed by the movement above 1.5488. A fall below 1.5428 from here will signal that the expected fall to 1.5360 is under way.

Trading strategy: 10:59 EST; 15:59 GMT

The short position from 1.5447 was closed at 1.5495 with loss 48 pips.

Stand aside

Published on Mon, May 12 2008, 15:39 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Fri, May 9 2008, 15:33 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my working count for the movement started from 105.56. The fall is spectacular but I do not think that it is impulsive in nature. I labeled this movement as a corrective combination and if it is already over, one should expect at least 61.8 % retracement. With an eye on this idea I enter long. On the other side below today’s low will be a signal that the corrective combination will turn out to be triple corrective combination and further fall to 102.00 should be expected in such a case.

Trading strategy:11:24 EST; 16:24 GMT

Buy at market (103.05), stop loss - 102.55, target – 104.40

Confidence level – medium

Published on Fri, May 9 2008, 15:33 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Apr 16 2008, 15:37 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Chart 1

My working count suggests that the fall started from 2.0049 (4 April) is a terminal impulse (ending diagonal). If this idea is correct, we should see one more fall below 1.9598 in wave 5. With an eye on this idea I entered short earlier today. However I have to admit that my confidence is still low but it will increase if we see a fall below 1.9730. Key resistance is 1.9806 and in a case of a break above it, one should expect re-test of 1.9892 which is very important level because a rise above it would indicate that the movement started from 2.0396 has already ended and a movement for a rise above is currently under way. Looking to the downside, I expect a minor low below 1.9598 to complete the terminal impulse shown on the chart.

Trading strategy: 11:26 EST; 16:26 GMT

Short position from 1.9758, stop loss - 1.9812 (stop and reverse), target - 1.9600

Confidence level – low

Published on Wed, Apr 16 2008, 15:37 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Apr 14 2008, 14:24 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

My working count suggests that the movement started from 1.5340 (24 March) is a terminal impulse (ending diagonal). The chart shows part of it and I think that we are currently in wave 5 for a move above 1.5912. With an eye on this idea I entered long earlier today. However one should bear in mind that the expected up-move is marginal upon me and I would expect a sharp sell-off later. An initial rise above 1.5912 followed by an immediate fall below 1.5670 would be a confirmation for the terminal impulse idea. In such a case the minimum target till the end of the month should be 1.5340 and much lower later.

Trading strategy: 10:03 EST; 15:03 GMT

Long position from 1.5770, stop loss - 1.5690, target - 1.5915

Confidence level – changed from low to high

Published on Mon, Apr 14 2008, 14:24 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Fri, Apr 11 2008, 15:50 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

I think that the recent consolidation between 122.92 and 101.44 was in a bearish triangle. It was broken from the downside and we saw a fall to 100.00. However the forthcoming deep recovery to 102.25 has ruled out the possibility for a direct fall below 95.73. In fact I think that the movement started from 95.73 will turn out to be very complex and it is not finished yet. I will discuss the situation in more details in the weekly analysis. Regarding the current situation I expect another recovery to 102.25 followed by another fall with potential target 98.40 (61.8 % retracement of the movement started from 95.73). With an eye on this idea I am currently long for 102.25 but I have to admit that my confidence is still low. A key support is 100.00. A fall below it will be a sign that a movement for a new low has begun.

Trading strategy: 11:02 EST; 16:02 GMT

Long position from 101.40, stop loss - 101.60, target - 102.25

Confidence level – low

Published on Fri, Apr 11 2008, 15:50 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Apr 7 2008, 15:04 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows the movement after 1.5509. I think that it is developing as a corrective combination and we are currently in its second phase. It could be a flat or a triangle. In both cases 1.5509 is the key support and a fall below it should bring at least a new low below 1.5340 and probably much lower prices. A key resistance remains 1.5895. From the smaller picture it is still unclear what exactly is going on. I tend to open a short position but currently there is no reliable pattern to open such a position because the only good level for a stop loss is 1.5900 which is too far for daily strategy. So I prefer to be flat and to wait some signal before entering the market.

Trading strategy: 10:41 EST; 15:41 GMT

Stand aside

Published on Mon, Apr 7 2008, 15:04 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Fri, Apr 4 2008, 15:18 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

I think that the rise started from 98.80 is wave C of the movement started from 95.73. It could be already over and if this assumption is correct, a sharp fall to minimum 98.80 and more likely a new low below 95.73 should be expected. With an eye on these extremely bearish expectations I entered short position. A key resistance is 102.60

Trading strategy: 11:02 EST; 16:02 GMT

Short position from 101.57, stop loss - 102.65, target - open

Confidence level – medium

Published on Fri, Apr 4 2008, 15:18 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Apr 2 2008, 10:58 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my working count for the fall started from 2.0191. I think it is corrective in nature in the position of wave B which suggests that one more rise to 2.0191 is forthcoming in wave C. I count the fall as a triple corrective combination which ends with a triangle. There is a possibility wave e of the said triangle to be forthcoming so I allow one more fall to 1.9770. A key support is 1.9720. A break above 1.9871 would be a signal that wave C is under way so I give a strategy to add to the existing long position above it.

Trading strategy: 05:48 EST; 10:48 GMT

Long position from 1.9761, stop loss - 1.9715, target – open

Add to the long position on break of 1.9876 (buy stop order at 1.9877), stop loss – 1.9780, target - open

Confidence level – changed from low to medium

Published on Wed, Apr 2 2008, 10:58 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD

Fri, Mar 28 2008, 16:47 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 12:10 EST; 16:10 GMT
Sell on break of 1.5725 (sell stop order at 1.5724), stop loss - 1.5800, target - open
Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Mar 28 2008, 16:47 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY

Fri, Mar 28 2008, 16:45 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The rise started from 95.73 is corrective in nature. It looks like as a completed pattern so I think that the fall started from 101.02 is at least a deep retracement (61.8 %). With an eye on these expectations I re-entered short. A key resistance is 100.37

Trading strategy: 11:22 EST; 15:22 GMT

Short position from 99.80, stop loss - 100.45, target - 97.80

Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Mar 28 2008, 16:45 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY

Fri, Mar 28 2008, 16:35 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 10:31 EST; 14:31 GMT
The short position from 99.60 was closed at 100.37 with loss 77 pips
Sell again at market (99.80), stop loss - 100.45, target - 97.80
Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Mar 28 2008, 16:35 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD

Fri, Mar 28 2008, 15:30 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The fall started from 1.5904 is corrective in nature and developed as a triple corrective combination which ended with a triangle. It finished at 1.5406 and a new strong rise followed. The possibilities for it are two – impulsive movement for a new high above 1.5904 or corrective movement in wave B (wave A is the 1.5904 – 1.5406 movement) followed by another fall in wave C. There is still no clearness what exactly is developing because none of the possibilities is ruled out. I continue to favor the corrective interpretation which suggests that 1.5904 will remain intact. My working count for it is presented on the chart and it suggests some sideways movement between 1.5858 and 1.5725 before a sharp sell-off. I will be flat at the moment because the potential triangle is not over yet but when there is a signal for its end, I will give a strategy for a short position below 1.5725. A key resistance is the high 1.5904

Trading strategy: 09:28 EST; 13:28 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Mar 28 2008, 15:30 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Fri, Mar 28 2008, 13:39 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

chart 3

The yesterday’s sell-off started from 2.0191 aborted the possibility for an impulsive movement from 1.9776. With an eye on this I exited my previous long position yesterday and even turned short earlier today. The chart shows my working count and there are two distinct possibilities for the fall started yesterday – impulsive in wave C (in such a case the 2.0396 – 1.9776 movement is wave A and the subsequent recovery to 2.0191 is wave B) or corrective which suggests a new high above 2.0191 later. A key level to determine what exactly is going on is 2.0021. As long as we stay below it I will favor the impulsive interpretation and this is the reason for my current short position.

Trading strategy: 06:30 EST; 10:30 GMT

Short position from 1.9999, stop loss - 2.0027, target - 1.9815

Confidence level –medium

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Mar 28 2008, 13:39 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Fri, Mar 28 2008, 08:22 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 03:00 EST; 07:00 GMT
The long position from 1.9809 and the additions to it from 1.9966 and from 2.0116 were closed at 2.0100 with total profit 409 pips.
Sell at market (1.9999), stop loss - 2.0095, target - open
Confidence level –medium

Published on Fri, Mar 28 2008, 08:22 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD weekly

Fri, Mar 28 2008, 08:21 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 03:07 EST; 07:07 GMT
Sell at market (1.9998), stop loss - 2.0200, target - open
Confidence level –medium

Published on Fri, Mar 28 2008, 08:21 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Fri, Mar 28 2008, 08:15 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 03:12 EST; 07:12 GMT
Long position from 1.5757, move the stop loss from 1.5720 to 1.5760 (stop and reverse), target - 1.5860
Confidence level – medium

Published on Fri, Mar 28 2008, 08:15 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD weekly

Fri, Mar 28 2008, 08:14 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 03:21 EST; 07:21 GMT
The long position from 1.5475 was closed at 1.5750 with protit 275 pips.
Sell on break of 1.5725 (sell stop order at 1.5724), stop loss - 1.5910, target - open
Confidence level – high

Published on Fri, Mar 28 2008, 08:14 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD weekly

Thu, Mar 27 2008, 16:56 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 12:12 EST; 16:12 GMT
Long position from 1.9891 + addition to it from 2.0116
Exit the long position at market (2.0086) with total profit 165 pips.
Stand aside

Published on Thu, Mar 27 2008, 16:56 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY

Thu, Mar 27 2008, 14:57 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 10:34 EST; 14:34 GMT
Short position from 99.60, stop loss - 100.37, target - 97.80
Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Thu, Mar 27 2008, 14:57 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD

Thu, Mar 27 2008, 14:29 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

EUR/USD daily

The fall started from 1.5904 is corrective in nature and developed as a triple corrective combination which ended with a triangle. It finished at 1.5406 and a new strong rise followed. The possibilities for it are two – impulsive movement for a new high above 1.5904 or corrective movement in wave B (wave A is the 1.5904 – 1.5406 movement) followed by another fall in wave C. There is still no clearness what exactly is developing because none of the possibilities is ruled out. I continue to favor the corrective interpretation which suggests that 1.5904 will remain intact. However I think that a new high above today’s high 1.5858 is very likely so I entered long for such a movement. I gave as a target only 1.5860 because it is possible the rise to turn out indeed corrective and also I expect very big movement move down in EUR/GBP. An important support is 1.5720 which is a stop loss of the current long position. A key resistance is the 1.5904 high.

Trading strategy: 10:18 EST; 14:18 GMT

Long position from 1.5757, stop loss - 1.5720 (stop and reverse), target - 1.5860

Confidence level – medium

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Thu, Mar 27 2008, 14:29 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Thu, Mar 27 2008, 09:22 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 03:15 EST; 07:15 GMT
Long position from 1.9809, stop profit - 1.9880, target – 2.0465
Addition to the long position from 1.9966, stop loss - 1.9880, target – 2.0465
Add to the long position again on break of 2.0115 (buy stop order at 2.0116), stop loss - 1.9990, target - 2.0465
Confidence level –high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Thu, Mar 27 2008, 09:22 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD weekly

Thu, Mar 27 2008, 09:21 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 03:33 EST; 07:33 GMT
Long position from 1.9891, move the stop loss from 1.9715 to 1.9880, target – 2.0460
Add to the long position on break of 2.0115 (buy stop order at 2.0116), stop loss - 1.9880, target - 2.0460
Confidence level – changed from low to high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Thu, Mar 27 2008, 09:21 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Thu, Mar 27 2008, 09:19 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 04:03 EST; 08:03 GMT
Buy at market (1.5757), stop loss - 1.5720, target - 1.5860
Confidence level – medium

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Thu, Mar 27 2008, 09:19 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY weekly

Wed, Mar 26 2008, 16:28 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 11:51 EST; 15:51 GMT
The long position from 100.30 was closed at 99.60 with loss 70 pips.
Short position from 99.60, stop loss -101.07, target - open
Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Mar 26 2008, 16:28 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Wed, Mar 26 2008, 16:23 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

It is obvious that USD/JPY is difficult for me to interpret in terms of wave count. The current fall started from 101.02 has aborted the possibility for a stronger rise and we should look again down. The chart shows my working count which suggests that a complex corrective combination is developing from 95.73. However I have to admit that my confidence is still low and the current short position is risky at the moment. A key resistance is 100.32 and as long as it stays unbroken, the more likely scenario is re-test of 95.73 low

Trading strategy: 11:30 EST; 15:30 GMT

The long position from 100.25 was closed at 99.60 with loss 65 pips.

Short position from 99.60, stop loss - 100.37, target - open

Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Mar 26 2008, 16:23 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Mar 26 2008, 14:58 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The fall started from 2.0396 is corrective in nature and is in the position of wave B. It developed as a double corrective combination which ended with a triangle. The subsequent rise is wave C upon me. Wave 1 of C finished today at 2.0110, the following fall is wave 2, and wave 3 up should be forthcoming. With an eye on this I exited the addition to the main long position today at 2.0090 but I re-entered this addition again at 1.9967. A key support is 1.9880. A key resistance is 2.0110 and a rise above it should bring a fast rise to 2.0465

Trading strategy: 10:40 EST; 14:40 GMT

Long position from 1.9809, stop profit - 1.9880, target – 2.0465

Addition to the long position from 1.9966, stop loss - 1.9880, target – 2.0465

Confidence level –high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Mar 26 2008, 14:58 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD weekly

Wed, Mar 26 2008, 14:13 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 08:01 EST; 12:01 GMT
Long position from 1.5475, move the stop loss from 1.5275 to 1.5700, change the target from 1.5795 to 1.5750
Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Mar 26 2008, 14:13 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Mar 26 2008, 10:05 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 05:22 EST; 09:22 GMT
Long position from 1.9809, move the stop loss from 1.9829 to 1.9880, target - open
Addition to the long position from 1.9854
Exit the addition to the long position at market (2.0090) with profit 236 pips
Confidence level –high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Mar 26 2008, 10:05 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY Strategy

Tue, Mar 25 2008, 14:48 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 10:17 EST; 14:17 GMT
Long position from 100.25, stop loss - 99.60 (stop and reverse), target - open
Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Mar 25 2008, 14:48 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY

Tue, Mar 25 2008, 14:43 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The yesterday’s rise above 100.20 aborted the perspectives for immediate sell-off and signals that at least stronger recovery of the dollar is currently under way. One of the possibilities is the rise started from 95.73 to be complex corrective combination which could reach 102.50 before a sell-off for a new low. However I have to admit that there is another scenario. It is presented on the chart and suggests that the last two weeks movement is a bullish triangle. If this assumption is correct, the dollar should be only in the beginning of a very big rise. In fact I can not favor the scenario presented on the chart but it is a real possibility. With an eye on the possibility for a very big up-move I entered long position yesterday but I have to warn that it is still very risky. Only a rise above 101.02 will increase my confidence in the presented count. A key support is 99.63

Trading strategy: 09:02 EST; 13:02 GMT
Long position from 100.25, stop loss - 99.60, change the target from 101.70 to open
Confidence level – changed from medium to low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Mar 25 2008, 14:43 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD

Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:31 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The fall started from 2.0396 is corrective upon me. My working count for it is presented on the chart and I think that it developed as a double corrective combination which ends with a triangle. If this idea is correct the down move should be over yesterday at 1.9776 and we should be currently in the beginning of a very strong rise in wave C for a high above 2.0396. A key support is 1.9830

Trading strategy: 05:21 EST; 09:21 GMT
Long position from 1.9809, move the stop loss from 1.9715 to 1.9829, target - open
Addition to the long position from 1.9854, move the stop loss from 1.9775 to 1.9829, target - open
Confidence level –high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:31 GMT

1

0

EUR/USD Today

Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:25 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The idea that the fall started from 1.5904 is corrective in nature looks more and more the correct idea. The chart shows my working count which suggests that the movement started from 1.5904 developed as a triple corrective combination which ended with a triangle. This corrective pattern should be already over and in such a case one should expect deeper retracement in coming days (minimum 61.8 % and more likely 80.9 %). With an eye on these bullish expectations I give a strategy to enter long on some dips. A key support is 1.5411

Trading strategy: 03:24 EST; 07:24 GMT
Buy on dips to 1.5490, stop loss - 1.5410, target – open1.5805
Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:25 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily 03/24

Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:19 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The fall started from 2.0396 is corrective upon me. My working count for it is presented on the chart and I think that a double corrective combination is developing. I suggest that the second part of it could turn out to be triangle (bullish) which suggests some sideways movement before strong upmove. A rise above 1.9940 should signal that the expected upmove has already started and I would expect a new high above 2.0396 in such a case. On the other side a fall below 1.9720 would be bearish and would bring a revision of the wave count shown on the chart.

Trading strategy: 07:51 EST; 11:51 GMT
Long position from 1.9809, stop loss - 1.9715, target - open
Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:19 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY

Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:17 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

I think that the recovery started from 95.73 is corrective in nature. My working count for it is presented on the chart and it suggests that a double corrective combination which ends with a triangle is developing. A direct fall below 98.45 (without an initial rise above 100.20) will signal that this scenario is developing. The expected target in such a case should be at least 61.8 % retracement of the movement started from 95.73 but I think that one should expect even new low below 95.73. On the other side a rise above 100.20 would abort the wave count presented on the chart and will signal that a stronger recovery is forthcoming with potential target 102.50.

Trading strategy: 07:17 EST; 11:17 GMT
Short position opened from 99.58, stop loss - 100.25, target - 97.30
Confidence level –changed from low to medium

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:17 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:08 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

EUR/USD Chart

The fall of the euro continues to accelerate. It is too sharp and strong but I still favor the idea that it is corrective in nature not impulsive. The determining of the nature of the fall is important because when the current movement (started from 1.5904) is over, there will be a correction and we should have an idea how deep will be this correction. In a case of an impulsive fall the maximum allowance will be 61.8 % correction (probably much smaller) while a correction after an corrective fall should be at least 61.8 % (and probably much deeper).

The chart shows my working count. It suggests that there is a triple corrective combination with currently developing third phase. This idea suggests one more low below 1.5340 before the end of the movement started from 1.5904 and beginning of a deeper correction (at least 61.8 %). With an eye on this I tend to open a long position. Currently I will be flat because there is no clearness where will be the end the third wave b so I still can not make reliable calculation for the end of the expected third wave c. An important resistance is 1.5471 and if we see a rise above it, this will be a signal that the fall started from 1.5904 found a temporary bottom and a correction of this movement has already started.

Trading strategy: 04:38 EST; 08:38 GMT

The long position opened from 1.5421 was closed at 1.5370 with loss 51 pips.

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:08 GMT

2

0

GPB/USD daily

Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:03 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 04:51 EST; 08:51 GMT
The long position from 1.9844 was closed at 1.9760 with loss 84 pips.
Buy again at market (1.9809), stop loss - 1.9715, target - open

Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Mar 25 2008, 10:03 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Tue, Mar 25 2008, 09:59 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

I think that the recovery started from 95.73 is corrective in nature. My working count for it is presented on the chart and it suggests that a double corrective combination which ends with a triangle is developing. A direct fall below 98.45 (without an initial rise above 100.20) will signal that this scenario is developing. The expected target in such a case should be at least 61.8 % retracement of the movement started from 95.73 but I think that one should expect even new low below 95.73. On the other side a rise above 100.20 would abort the wave count presented on the chart and will signal that a stronger recovery is forthcoming with potential target 102.50.

Trading strategy: 07:59 EST; 11:59 GMT

Short position opened from 99.58, stop loss - 100.25, target - 97.30

Confidence level - low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Mar 25 2008, 09:59 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Mar 19 2008, 15:07 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The fall started from 2.0396 is corrective in nature upon me. My working count for it is presented on the chart and we should be currently in wave C of the fall. When it is over, I would expect a new rise above 2.0396 so I will try to enter long position in coming days. The problem here is the fact that the current fall is probably a wave B of the movement started from 1.9720 i.e. it could continue even to 1.9720 without any damage to the idea for a subsequent new strong rise. It is clear that entering long here with stop loss below 1.9720 is not acceptable for a daily strategy so I prefer to be flat at the moment. Only a rise above 2.0150 at this stage would signal that the expected movement for a rise above 2.0396 has already begun.

Trading strategy: 10:53 EST; 14:53 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Mar 19 2008, 15:07 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Mar 17 2008, 16:16 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The euro stays very stable against the dollar and continues to hit record high after record high. It still looks very bullish and at least one more new high above 1.5904 should be expected. The problem here is the fact that I still can not rule out one more fall below today’s low 1.5685 before the expected new rise. On the other side if such a fall indeed occurs and if it is very sharp and fast, this could be a signal that 1.5904 is a temporary high and that a correction of the most recent rise has already started. With an eye on this I prefer to be neutral at the moment. If we see a new rise above 1.5904, the today’s low becomes the key support for the validity of the uptrend. In a case of such a rise, one should expect a re-test of the psychological level 1.6000

Trading strategy: 10:27 EST; 15:27 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Mar 17 2008, 16:16 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Mar 12 2008, 14:01 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

My working count suggests that the fall started from 2.0117 is corrective in nature and is developing as a flat correction. Today’s rise is spectacular but it could still be only wave B of the said flat correction and we still could see a fall below 1.9993. With an eye on this I stay on the short position opened earlier this week. A fall below 2.0092 would signal that the presented count is correct and wave C has already started with potential target 1.9945. On the other side a rise above 2.0117 would abort the above presented count and would signal that the correction is already over at 1.9993 and further rise to 2.0450 should be expected in such a case.

Trading strategy: 08:15 EST; 12:15 GMT

Short position opened from 2.0188, stop loss - 2.0223, target - 1.9945

Confidence level - moderate

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Mar 12 2008, 14:01 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Mar 10 2008, 16:15 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

We saw a new record high at 1.5462 on Friday. However the euro was sold off heavily as a result to 1.5312 which is a first signal for a start of the long awaited correction of the up-move started from 1.4481 (7 February). With an eye on this possibility I entered short on Friday. My working count is presented on the chart and it suggests that the fall to 1.5312 is wave I and the subsequent recovery is wave ii. In fact wave ii could still not be over and one more rise to 1.5404 is still possible before its end. This is the reason to lower the stop loss of the current short position to 1.5372. I think that a rise above this level would bring re-test of 1.5404 where I will re-enter short in a case the current stop loss is taken. On the other side a fall below 1.5312 would signal that wave iii is under way so I will add to the short position below this level.

Trading strategy: 11:10 EST; 15:10 GMT

Short position from 1.5394, stop profit - 1.5372, target - open.

Add to the short position on break of 1.5312 (sell stop order at 1.5311), stop loss - 1.5372, target - open

Confidence level – high

Trading strategy: 09:12 EST; 13:12 GMT

Short position from 1.5394, move the stop loss from 1.5466 to 1.5372, target - open.

Add to the short position on break of 1.5312 (sell stop order at 1.5311), stop loss - 1.5372, target - open

Confidence level – high

Published on Mon, Mar 10 2008, 16:15 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Mon, Mar 10 2008, 09:24 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my working count. It suggests that the last two days fall is wave 5 which is already over today at 101.38 and a very strong up-move has started. This idea is supported by the fact that we saw today a fall below the 101.66 low (January 2005) which was not followed by an acceleration of the sell-off but by a sharp rebound. The 101.38 – 103.23 movement is wave 1 of the forthcoming strong up-move upon me and we are currently in wave 2 of it. That’s why I will try to enter long on 38.2 % retracement with a stop loss below 61.8 % retracement of the today’s rise. Only a sharp fall below 101.38 would change the situation from very bullish to very bearish.

Trading strategy: 11:23 EST; 16:23 GMT

The short position from 103.50 was closed at 102.95 with profit 55 pips.

Buy on dips to 102.60, stop loss – 102.00, target - open

Confidence level – medium

Published on Mon, Mar 10 2008, 09:24 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Mar 5 2008, 16:38 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows my working count for the fall started from 1.9970. It is obvious that we have a flat correction down followed by a resuming of the up-move. I think that the minimum upside target is 1.9970 however I have to note that higher levels are very likely. A key support is 1.9805 so I move the stop loss of today’s long position just below it.

Trading strategy: 11:15 EST; 16:15 GMT
Long position from 1.9828, move the stop loss from 1.9760 to 1.9805, target - 1.9970

Confidence level – changed from medium to high

Trading strategy: 08:47 EST; 13:47 GMT
The short position opened from 1.9920 was closed at 1.9808 with profit 112 pips
The addition to the short position opened from 1.9808 was closed at 1.9808
Buy at market (1.9828), stop loss - 1.9760, target - 1.9970

Confidence level - medium

Trading strategy: 04:30 EST; 09:30 GMT
Short position from 1.9920, move the stop profit from 1.9900 to 1.9808, target - 1.9550
Addition to the short position from 1.9808, move the stop loss from 1.9900 to 1.9808, target - 1.9550

Confidence level - medium

Published on Wed, Mar 5 2008, 16:38 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Mar 3 2008, 16:38 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Chart 1

The upside movement is very strong and there is no serious correction at all. The chart shows one of the possibilities witch suggests that a flat correction is developing started from 1.5238. This idea suggests a fall below 1.5142 and if this happens, I will expect more downside i.e. a deeper correction of the recent rise. With an eye on this I remain on the short position opened on Friday but I have to admit that this position is too risky and there is still no signal for a beginning of a deeper correction. The alternative is the last few days movement to be a triangle (it is not clear bullish or bearish). From a short term point of view key resistance is 1.52636 while key support is 1.5160

Trading strategy: 09:10 EST; 14:10 GMT

Short position from 1.5163, stop loss - 1.5245, target - open

Confidence level – changed from medium to low

Published on Mon, Mar 3 2008, 16:38 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Feb 25 2008, 15:20 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Chart 1

The last few days’ movement is between 1.4787 and 1.4862. As is shown on the chart I suggest that we deal with a triangle. If this suggestion is correct, it is still not over and we should see at least one more day in the said range. Currently there is still no clearness if the potential triangle is bullish or bearish and only a break of the 1.4787 – 1.4862 range will give a direction. With an eye on the current uncertainty and the expected continuation of the consolidation I am currently flat.

Trading strategy: 09:30 EST; 14:30 GMT

Stand aside

Published on Mon, Feb 25 2008, 15:20 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Fri, Feb 22 2008, 16:28 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The fall started from 108.32 is very strong and it could signal end of the correction started from 104.94. If this is the case, an acceleration of the fall should be expected. A key support is 107.30. On the other side a fall below 106.80 should bring a sell-off to 105.40 first.

Trading strategy: 11:06 EST; 16:06 GMT

Short position from 107.00, move the stop loss from 107.61 to 107.35, target - open

Confidence level – changed from low to medium

Published on Fri, Feb 22 2008, 16:28 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Feb 20 2008, 13:50 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The recovery from 1.9385 to 1.9736 was corrective in nature. The subsequent fall is also corrective in nature upon me. It could finish every moment and a new rise could start in wave C for a high above 1.9736. A move above 1.9500 would signal that the anticipated rise has already started. A key support is 1.9385 so the stop loss of the current long position is just below it.

Trading strategy: 08:00 EST; 13:00 GMT

Long position from1.9474, stop loss - 1.9384, target - open

Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Feb 20 2008, 13:50 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Feb 18 2008, 13:27 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Chart 5

The chart shows the last week’s movement. It is obviously corrective in nature and is moving in a clearly defined upside channel. We are currently at the lower trendline of the channel and could see a break below it as well as a rebound from it and subsequent move to the upper trendline. With an eye on the current uncertainty I gave a strategy to exit the previous short positionearlier today and will give another strategy when I see a break or a rebound of the trendline shown on the chart. In a case of a down break, I will expect a fall at least to 1.4540. In a case of a rebound I expect a new high above 1.4708

Trading strategy: 06:58 EST; 11:58 GMT

Stand aside

Published on Mon, Feb 18 2008, 13:27 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Fri, Feb 15 2008, 16:08 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

chart 1

The situation here is interesting. There was a consolidation in the last few weeks which should be already over. One of the possibilities is to have a zigzag correction started from 104.94 which could be already over at 108.60. In such a case a new sell-off is forthcoming for a low below 104.94. However I think that there is possibility also for the opposite movement. It suggests that the recent consolidation was in a triangle (bullish) which should be already over. In such a case further rise should be expected. The chart shows this possibility but I should note that only a rise above 108.30 will be a signal in favor of this scenario. On the other side a fall below 106.96 will be very bearish. My feeling is that the direction here is up so I entered a long position earlier today.

Trading strategy: 10:58 EST; 15:58 GMT

Long position from 107.63, stop loss - 106.95, target - open

Confidence level – low

Published on Fri, Feb 15 2008, 16:08 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Feb 11 2008, 16:44 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

chart 1

I think that the fall started from 1.4954 is corrective in nature (double corrective combination) and it is probably wave of a triangle. The chart shows the second part of it and I expect one more fall below 1.4438 in wave C. With an eye on this I entered short position earlier today. I pointed as a target of this position 1.4367 where wave C will be equal to wave A and also at this level is a low from 22 of January. If the expected move down has already started, the euro should stay below the entry level of today’s short position, So to avoid the risk I move the stop loss to the break-even.

Trading strategy: 09:37 EST; 14:37 GMT

Short position from 1.4542, move the stop loss from 1.4580 to 1.4542, target - 1.4367

Published on Mon, Feb 11 2008, 16:44 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Mon, Feb 11 2008, 08:44 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The last few weeks’ movement is developing in a triangle upon me. It is still not clear if it is bullish or bearish. However with an eye on the relatively close stop loss I continue to be short. A key support is 105.70. A key resistance is 107.88

Trading strategy: 11:21 EST; 16:21 GMT

Short position from 107.28, stop loss - 107.95 (stop and reverse), target – 104.85

Confidence level – changed from medium to low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Feb 11 2008, 08:44 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Feb 4 2008, 15:50 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The euro rose initially sharply on Friday to 1.4954 but was sold off heavy thereafter to 1.4785. This looks like a reversal pattern so in my opinion the short term direction is down. We are currently in a corrective recovery after Friday’s losses and further recovery to 1.4855 is likely. However if the direction is down, the recovery should stay below 1.4900. On the other side a rise above 1.4900 will abort the impulsive interpretation of the Friday’s sell-off and will increase the possibility for a re-test of 1.4954.

Trading strategy: 09:27 EST; 14:27 GMT
Short position from 1.4851
Exit the short position at market (1.4817) with profit 34 pips.
Sell again on recovery to 1.4855, stop loss - 1.4900, target - open

Confidence level – medium

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts. .

Published on Mon, Feb 4 2008, 15:50 GMT

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0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Jan 30 2008, 16:05 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The rise started from 1.9336 in significant but I think it is corrective in nature. What’s more, my working count suggests that wave C of it is a terminal impulse 9ending diagonal) which suggests a fast and sharp fall with minimum requirement 1.9462. With an eye on these thoughts I entered short position. A key resistance is 1.9947 and a break above it will made the situation bullish.

Trading strategy: 10:05 EST; 15:05 GMT
Short position from 1.9885, move the stop loss from 1.9980 to 1.9955, target – open
Add to the short position on break of 1.9865 (sell stop order at 1.9864), stop loss – 1.9925, target - open

Confidence level – changed from low to medium

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Jan 30 2008, 16:05 GMT

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EUR/USD mid−term analysis

Tue, Jan 29 2008, 11:41 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

I think that the rise started from 1.4364 is corrective movement and is a part of a triangle. In fact the euro could go higher from here but there no reliable targets for the upside. This and the fact that I do not expect break of 1.4921 level forced me to enter a short position because an eventual fall from here could be with great downside potential. A key support is 1.4658 and as long as it remains unbroken, one should expect more upside. On the upside a key resistance is 1.4921.

Trading strategy: 11:56 EST; 16:56 GMT

Short position from 1.4792, stop loss – 1.4925, target - open

Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Jan 29 2008, 11:41 GMT

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EUR/USD mid−term analysis

Wed, Jan 23 2008, 15:42 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Chart

Trading strategy: 10:37 EST; 15:37 GMT

The long position opened from 1.9476 and the addition to it opened from 1.9600 was closed at 1.9540 with total profit 4 pips.

Buy again on dips to 1.9400, stop loss – 1.9333, target – 1.9650

Confidence level – medium

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Jan 23 2008, 15:42 GMT

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EUR/USD mid−term analysis

Mon, Jan 21 2008, 15:06 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Chart

The fall started from 1.4921 is impulsive in nature upon me. I think that there are 5 completed waves down so I expect a correction of this movement. With an eye on these expectations I exited my previous short position on Friday and even turned long today. However I have to note that the current long position is against the larger trend so one should be very careful. A rise above 1.4560 will signal that the presented count is correct and in such a case I would expect further recovery to 1.4620 – 1.4700 later in the week. An important support is 1.4450

Trading strategy: 09:06 EST; 14:06 GMT

Long position from 1.4500, stop loss - 1.4450, target – 1.4650

Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Jan 21 2008, 15:06 GMT

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0

EUR/USD mid−term analysis

Mon, Jan 21 2008, 07:24 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

As a whole, there is no change in the wave count since the last update. The chart shows the movement started from 0.8563 (February 2001). As I wrote many times I think that the previous downtrend ended at this level (with a reversal triangle) and started the current very strong up-move in favor of the euro. It is obvious that the first wave from the up-move ended at 1.3664 (December 2004), followed by a corrective wave down to 1.1639 (November 2005) and subsequent resuming of the up-move i.e. we have three waves till now for the movement started from 0.8563. In my opinion all of them are corrective in nature This and the fact that I count the rise started from 0.8563 as wave [C] make me think that the movement started from 2001 is a giant terminal impulse (ending diagonal) with extended first wave. Wave 3 should be already over at 1.4966 (November 2007) and we should be currently in wave 4 with minimum requirement overlapping of wave 1 (1.3664) and more natural target 1.3300 – 50 % retracement of wave 3, followed by another strong rise in wave 5 with target 1.5000. With an eye on the fact that wave 2 took 11 month, it is logical the current wave 4 to take 6-7 month i.e. till the middle of the year. The interesting here is the fact that if the presented count proves to be correct, we should see a complete retrace of the potential terminal impulse once it is over (this should happen in the end of the year earliest). So the presented analysis suggests a reversal of the long term trend from levels around 1.5000 with a sharp sell-off below 0.8563 for 3-4 years. Argument in favor of such an idea is the fact that terminal impulses are always completely retraced for a less time than they took to form and most of the times this happens for 50 % of the time needed to develop such a pattern.

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Jan 21 2008, 07:24 GMT

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0

USD/JPY

Fri, Jan 18 2008, 15:42 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows the movement after the reached low 105.89. It is obvious that a correction has started from it but there is still no clearness what is the pattern. The problem is the fact that all waves since 105.89 are corrective in nature. This means that if there is a flat correction, wave C of it should be a terminal impulse. If this is the case we are still far from its completing. The target of such a pattern should be a new high above 107.91 so I give a strategy for a long position on dips to 107.00. A key support is 106.33

Trading strategy: 09:42 EST; 14:42 GMT

Buy on dips to 107.00, stop loss – 106.30, target - open

Confidence level – medium

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Jan 18 2008, 15:42 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD

Wed, Jan 16 2008, 15:06 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Today’s movement made the situation clearer and I think that the best count for the current movement is a flat correction started from 1.9480. If this is the case, the current rise should be wave C of it. It should make a high above 1.9740. I should note that in a case of a new high, there could be a new fall so the situation after an eventual high above 1.9740 could become very complex. A key support is 1.9642 so I move the stop loss of the today’s long position just below it.

Trading strategy: 09:38 EST; 14:38 GMT

Long position from 1.9605, move the stop loss from 1.9520 to 1.9640, target – 1.9760

Confidence level – changed from low to high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Jan 16 2008, 15:06 GMT

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USD/JPY mid−term analysis

Tue, Jan 15 2008, 17:14 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The suggestion form June 2007 for a giant terminal impulse started from 101.66 (January 2005) looks the best scenario at the moment. This count is presented on the chart and suggests that the terminal impulse finished at 124.12 (June 2007). We saw a sharp sell-off from the last level and the interesting here is the fact, that the down move should accelerate from here and we should see much lower prices in coming weeks and months. The minimum requirement for the current fall is 101.66 i.e. a complete retracement of the pattern but I don’t think that there will be any significant correction before 96.50 (at this level wave 3 of the fall will be 161.8 % of wave 1 on logarithmic scale). A key resistance is 114.63 and as long as this pair stays below it, the perspectives are extremely bearish.

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Jan 15 2008, 17:14 GMT

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EUR/USD

Mon, Jan 14 2008, 16:30 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows the last few days’ movement. It is definitely very strong but I don’t think that we deal with an impulsive movement. My wave count suggests that a complex corrective combination is developing from 1.4308 (20 December) and the current movement is part of it. My idea is that it should stay below the 1.4966 high so I entered short earlier today. However I have to admit that currently there is no signal yet that the expected sell-off has begun. I entered short because as long as the euro stays below 1.4966 we could see a reversal every moment which combined with the possibility to put relatively close objective stop loss turned out to be a good stimulus for a short position. A fall below 1.4795 will be a confirmation that the expected down move for a low below 1.4308 is under way. A key resistance is 1.4966.

Trading strategy: 10:12 EST; 15:12 GMT

Short position from 1.4881, stop loss - 1.4970, target - open

Published on Mon, Jan 14 2008, 16:30 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY

Fri, Jan 11 2008, 15:41 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The recent fall started from 114.63 found temporary bottom at 107.86 and a correction of the said down movement is currently under way. This correction is still unfinished upon me and we should see at least one more rise in wave C with potential target 110.40 (38.2 % retracement). With an eye on this I try to enter long for this movement. It is natural the current low 107.86 to remain unbroken at this stage but I have to admit that this is not a must and a little fall below it is allowable without any damage to the idea for forthcoming rise. A rise above 109.70 will be a confirmation that this move is already under way.

Trading strategy: 10:33 EST; 17:33 GMT

Buy on dips to 108.35, stop loss - 107.85, target - 110.40

Confidence level – low

Published on Fri, Jan 11 2008, 15:41 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD

Wed, Jan 9 2008, 13:07 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

I think that the last few days’ movement was a bearish triangle which is already broken from the downside today. In my opinion this triangle is limited one i.e. we are close to short term bottom. With an eye on this I entered long earlier today but I should say that this position is still risky because currently there is no sign for a reversal. A key support is 1.9550. A first signal for my idea will be a rise above 1.9710 and confirmation – above 1.9762. In such a case I will expect a correction of the whole fall started from 2.1160.

Trading strategy: 06:36 EST; 11:36 GMT

Long position from 1.9627, stop loss -1.9550, target - opened

Confidence level – low

Published on Wed, Jan 9 2008, 13:07 GMT

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0

EUR/USD

Mon, Jan 7 2008, 13:32 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The euro rose sharply against the dollar on Friday and reached 1.4824. However it was at these high levels shortly and was sold off as a result. This retreat shows the short term direction upon me so I expect more downside in coming days. The fall below the previous low 1.4694 is very important for the direction so I gave a strategy on Friday to enter short on a break of this level. The chart shows the impulsive scenario i.e. for a forthcoming sell-off of the euro. It suggests that wave 2 is currently developing as a running correction. The problem in this case is the fact that currently the fall started from 1.4824 look more like corrective combination instead of impulse. However my experience reminds me that in such a way looks running corrections prior to beginning of the strong movement in wave 3. With an eye on this I stay on my short position but I change my confidence level because the impulsive scenario is not the only possible scenario at the moment. Very important resistance level is 1.4776 so my stop loss is just above it. A key support is 1.4657

Trading strategy: 08:27 EST; 13:27 GMT

Short position from 1.4693, stop loss - 1.4780, target – opened

Confidence level – changed from high to low

Published on Mon, Jan 7 2008, 13:32 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY

Fri, Jan 4 2008, 15:08 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The situation here is very interesting. As is shown on the chart, I think that there is a bearish triangle which is already broken from the downside. The interesting here is the position of the said triangle. One of the possibilities is it to be in the position of wave 4 and if this is the case, we are close to temporary bottom. However I think that the alternative scenario is more likely. It suggests further sell-off from here i.e. the triangle could be in the position of wave Y of 2 (running correction). Upon it we should see very soon levels below 100 yen per dollar. A sharp fall below 107.00 will be a confirmation for such a scenario and it will confirm that the terminal impulse from my mid-term analysis is developing (for more information see http://www.karoll.net/en/?section=analytics_currency&id=15 ). A key resistance is 109.00 so I move the stop profit of the short position opened earlier this week to this level.

Trading strategy: 09:53 EST; 14:53 GMT

Short position from 109.95, move the stop profit from 109.80 to 109.00, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts

Published on Fri, Jan 4 2008, 15:08 GMT

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0

GBP/USD

Wed, Jan 2 2008, 16:34 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

My working count suggests that the last few week’s movement is a flat correction. Wave A of it finished at 2.0100 and the subsequent fall is wave B. It is natural for it to stay above 1.9752 (the beginning of wave A) but I have to point out that this is not a must and a fall below it is allowable in wave B. One more rise to 2.0100 should follow in wave C upon my working count. With an eye on the above written I entered long today with stop below 1.9752. I pointed my confidence level as currently low because a move below 1.9752 is still possible but this will be not natural as I already mentioned. A rise above 1.9863 will increase my confidence in the above presented count.

Trading strategy: 10:25 EST; 15:25 GMT

Long position from 1.9812, stop loss - 1.9750, target - 2.0100

Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Jan 2 2008, 16:34 GMT

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0

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Fri, Dec 28 2007, 13:14 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Chart

The fall started yesterday from 114.63 is very sharp and looks impulsive at first glance. If this is the case, we should see further losses with potential even new low below 107.19 in coming days. However to tell you the truth, I am not convinced that this fall is impulsive in nature. Nevertheless of its strength, it still could be corrective in nature. The corrective scenario is presented on the chart. We have currently a double corrective combination and once it is over, we should see a strong rise for a high above 114.63. The problem here is that the double combination could turn out to be triple corrective combination i.e. one more three waves movement down is still possible before the expected rise upon the corrective scenario. With an eye on the uncertainty I prefer to be currently flat. An important resistance is 113.30. A support level is currently 112.60

Trading strategy: 07:36 EST; 12:36 GMT

Stand aside

Published on Fri, Dec 28 2007, 13:14 GMT

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Fri, Dec 21 2007, 13:58 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

As you can see from the chart, the last week’s movement was sideways between 113.58 and 112.72 in a triangle pattern. This triangle proved to be bullish one after today’s break from the upside. The big question now is the position of this triangle. It could be wave B (limited triangle) and in such a case the maximum upside tolerance is 114.00 which should be followed by a sharp fall to 113.00. On the other side it could be also wave X or wave W (non-limited triangle) and in such a case upside potential is very huge. Currently I favor slightly the non-limiting triangle scenario so I leaved the target of the long position opened, but I moved the stop loss above the break-even to avoid an eventual loss from a possible fall in case the limited triangle scenario is developing. A key support is 112.93 while the key resistance is 114.00

Trading strategy: 08:43 EST; 13:43 GMT

Long position from 113.12, move the stop loss from 112.45 to 113.15, target - opened

Confidence level – changed from low to high

Chart

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Dec 21 2007, 13:58 GMT

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GBP/USD Daily outlook

Wed, Dec 19 2007, 17:04 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The cable continues to be under big pressure and we say new sell-off today started from 2.0196. As you can see from the chart, there is a potential impulse started from today’s high which could move the prices far down from the current levels. With an eye on this I enter currently short. There are two possibilities for the length of wave iii – 61.8 % or 161.8 % of wave i. The corresponding levels are 1.9970 and 1.9805. An important resistance level is 2.0032 which is the end of the potential wave i. If the direction is down, this level should stay out of reach today and tomorrow. However in a case of a rise above it, there will be a strong buy signal. So I sell at market with stop and reverse above this level.

Trading strategy: 11:31 EST; 16:31 GMT

Sell at market (1.9975), stop loss - 2.0040 (stop and reverse), target - 1.9810

Published on Wed, Dec 19 2007, 17:04 GMT

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EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Mon, Dec 17 2007, 14:18 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The last few days’ sell-off started from 1.4736 is impulsive and one can see clear five wave structure. We are currently in wave 5 which could reach 1.4300. However one should bear in mind that the minimum requirement for the length of wave 5 is already reached so it could finish every moment. When it finishes, one should expect some correction to 1.4500 before another sell-off. An important resistance level is 1.4400 because a rise above it will signal completion of the impulse shown on the chart. With an eye on this I move the stop loss of the short position opened on Friday just above it.

Trading strategy: 05:18 EST; 10:18 GMT

Short position from 1.4523, move the stop loss from 1.4610 to 1.4405, target – 1.4300

Confidence level – changed from moderate to high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Dec 17 2007, 14:18 GMT

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USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Fri, Dec 14 2007, 15:22 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

My working count suggests that the rise started from 107.19 is corrective in nature and is developing as a zigzag. Wave C of it started from 109.54 and I think is developing as a terminal impulse. A fall below the lower trendline shown on the chart would be a signal in favor of the terminal impulse scenario and should bring a fast fall to minimum 109.54 (the starting point of the pattern) for a less time than it took to form. A key resistance is 113.39 because at this point wave 3 will become the shortest wave which is impossible upon the presented count.

Trading strategy: 09:58 EST; 14:58 GMT

Short position from 112.98, stop loss - 113.45, target - opened

Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Dec 14 2007, 15:22 GMT

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GBP/USD daily outlook

Wed, Dec 12 2007, 15:34 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The fall started from 2.1160 found a temporary bottom at 2.0179 and a recovery started from there. I think that the upside potential is at least 2.0780 so I will try to enter long later this week. From a short term point of view I think that there is a completed double corrective combination started from 2.0179 (as is shown on the chart) followed by a corrective retreat with minimum requirement 2.0310. With an eye on this downside potential I enter short at market but I have to admit that this position is risky.

Trading strategy: 08:58 EST; 13:58 GMT

Sell at market (2.0483), stop loss – 2.0525, target – 2.0315

Confidence level - low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Dec 12 2007, 15:34 GMT

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0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Dec 10 2007, 16:16 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

EUR/USD Chart

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Dec 10 2007, 16:16 GMT

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0

USD/JPY daily

Fri, Dec 7 2007, 16:18 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Daily Outlook

Published on Fri, Dec 7 2007, 16:18 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Thu, Dec 6 2007, 08:12 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

GBP/USD 120 minutes

Published on Thu, Dec 6 2007, 08:12 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY daily

Fri, Nov 30 2007, 14:37 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Daily Outlook

Published on Fri, Nov 30 2007, 14:37 GMT

0

0

GBP/USD daily

Wed, Nov 28 2007, 15:28 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

GBP/USD 60 minutos

Published on Wed, Nov 28 2007, 15:28 GMT

0

0

EUR/USD daily

Mon, Nov 26 2007, 11:39 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

EUR/USD 60 minutos

Published on Mon, Nov 26 2007, 11:39 GMT

0

0

USD/JPY: In the end of wave 5

Fri, Nov 23 2007, 17:19 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

The fall started from 117.93 is impulsive upon me and we are currently in the end of wave 5. There is still no confirmation for its end and only above 109.16 will be such a signal. However as long as the dollar stays below 109.16, one more low below 107.55 should be expected. When it is completed, one should expect a few weeks recovery of the dollar with minimum requirement 111.75. I prefer to be currently flat but if I see a buy signal with relatively close stop loss, I will give a strategy for a long position.

Trading strategy: 09:19 EST; 13:19 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Nov 23 2007, 17:19 GMT

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GBP/USD: The fall started from 2.1160 is obviously corrective in nature

Wed, Nov 21 2007, 15:31 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

The fall started from 2.1160 is obviously corrective in nature. This does not change my idea that 2.1160 is a multi months top and I still expect a move below 2.0000 but trading will be very difficult because corrective movements allow lots of possibilities and usually require too far stop loss. The chart shows my working count. The fall to 2.0352 is three waves structure and the subsequent recovery is also corrective in nature. The big question here is what is the position of the three waves fall (2.1160-2.0352) – wave A or wave W. The former scenario requires at least 61.8 % retracement of the fall started from 2.1160 before resuming of the down move while the latter scenario allows resuming of the downtrend from current levels. From a short term point of view I expect a fall to 2.0485 in both cases so I entered short position earlier today for this movement. I already mentioned that the situation is unclear from the longer term point of view. A key resistance level is 2.0696

Trading strategy: 09:20 EST; 13:20 GMT

Short position from 2.0634, stop loss - 2.0702, target –2.0490

Confidence level – changed from low to moderate

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Nov 21 2007, 15:31 GMT

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EUR/USD: Confidence level – changed from moderate to high

Mon, Nov 19 2007, 17:15 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

EUR/USD chart

The chart shows my working count for the movement started from 1.4751. I think that a bullish triangle is developing which could be already over. With an eye on this I gave a strategy to enter long earlier today. A rise above 1.4686 will be a first signal for this idea and a move above 1.4724 – confirmation. One should have in mind that if the euro rises upon my expectations, this rise could be marginal one and from levels around 1.4800 I expect a multi months fall with minimum target 1.3665 (see the midterm analysis for more details) On the other side a sharp fall below 1.4580 from current levels will indicate that the triangle is bearish one (not bullish as is shown on the chart) so I put a stop and reverse order below it.

Trading strategy: 09:35 EST; 13:35 GMT

Long position from 1.4629, stop loss - 1.4579 (stop and reverse), target - 1.4780

Confidence level – changed from moderate to high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Nov 19 2007, 17:15 GMT

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USD/JPY: Confidence level – changed from low to moderate

Fri, Nov 16 2007, 16:46 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

USD/JPY chart

I count the recovery started from 109.11 as corrective one. Wave A of it finished at 111.74, wave B is probably over at today’s 109.77 low, wave C should be currently under way for a high above 111.74. With an eye on this I gave a strategy for a long position earlier today with the earliest signal that wave C is developing. The stop loss for this position should be moved below 61.8 % retracement of the potential wave C. When it is over I will look for an entry level for a short position because I expect a sharp sell-off below 109.11 ones the current wave C is completed.

Trading strategy: 09:11 EST; 09:11 GMT

Long position from 110.36, move the stop loss from 109.75 to 109.99, target - 111.75

Confidence level – changed from low to moderate

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Nov 16 2007, 16:46 GMT

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GBP/USD: Confidence level – high

Wed, Nov 14 2007, 17:50 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

The chart shows my count for the movement started from 2.1160. I think that there is a high possibility to have a major high at 2.1160 and the current fall could be correction of the whole rise started from April 2006. From a short term point of view we have a potential impulsive fall to 2.0522 followed by a corrective recovery. It could be already over at today’s high 2.0842 and we could be in the beginning of a new impulsive fall. A fall below 2.0642 will be a first signal and a fall below 2.0522 – confirmation for such an idea. My personal expectations for the expected length of the forthcoming wave 3 is 161.8 % of the length of wave 1 i.e. I expect a fall to 1.9610 in wave 3. A key resistance is 2.0920 which is 61.8 % retracement of the fall started from 2.1160

Trading strategy: 10:52 EST; 14:52 GMT

Short position from 2.0754, stop loss - 2.0850, target – opened

Add to the short position on break of 2.0642 (sell stop order at 2.0641), stop loss – 2.0710, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Nov 14 2007, 17:50 GMT

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EUR/USD: Confidence level – high

Mon, Nov 12 2007, 16:43 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

The fall started from 1.4751 looks impulsive in nature as is shown on the chart. This means that one should expect more downside in short term. Also I want to point out that there are early signals that the multi years terminal impulse scenario presented in the midterm analysis is developing (see midterm analysis for more information). So I think that every correction should be limited to 61.8 % retracement and should be used to open new short positions. With an eye on this I will give a strategy to add to the existing short position, opened on Friday, later this week. A key resistance level is 1.4665

Trading strategy: 11:15 EST; 15:15 GMT

Short position from 1.4677, move the stop loss from 1.4755 to 1.4675 , target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Nov 12 2007, 16:43 GMT

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USD/JPY: Stand aside

Fri, Nov 9 2007, 14:37 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

The chart shows the fall started from 115.90. For a long time I thought that it is corrective in nature but today’s fall below 111.58 has aborted such a possibility and showed that it is impulsive in nature. In such a case we should be currently in the end of wave 5 of it so I will not enter short from here and prefer to be currently flat. From a short term point of view I expect a new low below 110.92 followed by a sharp rebound to 112.70

Trading strategy: 09:18 EST; 13:18 GMT

The long position opened from 112.20 was closed at 111.55 with loss 65 pips.

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Nov 9 2007, 14:37 GMT

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GBP/USD: Stand aside

Wed, Nov 7 2007, 18:10 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

The cable stayed above indicated 2.0833 support yesterday and rose very sharply as a result to a new record high 2.1070. The chart shows my working count which suggests that there was a running triangle in the position of wave 4 and the current rise is wave 5. When it is over, we should see a sharp fall to the beginning of wave 5 but my personal opinion is that we are still far from the top. From a short term I expect some retreat with potential target 2.0990 followed by another rise. A key support is 2.0930. As long as it stays intact, the trend should be considered strongly up. However in a case of a fall below it, there will be a signal for a temporary high with a first downside target 2.0850. I will be flat initially but if I see a corrective decline, I will give a strategy to enter long in tomorrow’s strategy.

Trading strategy: 10:11 EST; 14:11 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Nov 7 2007, 18:10 GMT

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EUR/USD: Stand aside

Mon, Nov 5 2007, 17:37 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

EUR/USD chart

As you know on Thursday I stated in the new mid term analysis that there is a high possibility for a few months high around current levels. With an eye on this I entered short on Friday and also gave a strategy to add to this position below 1.4448 which was filled today. However nevertheless of my longer term bearish expectations, the short term picture does not suggests immediate sell-off because the fall started from the 1.4528 high looks corrective in nature. Of course this does not necessarily mean that a new high above 1.4528 is a must but at least postpone the expected fall with few days. The chart shows one of the possibilities which suggests that a bearish triangle is developing. In such a case one should expect further consolidation between 1.4400 and 1.4530 before an eventual downside break and beginning of the expected sell-off. However I have to admit that my confidence in the presented scenario is still low so I still allow a new high above 1.4528. With an eye on this I prefer to exit the current shorts and to re-enter short once the situation becomes clearer.

Trading strategy: 10:08 EST; 14:08 GMT

Short position from 1.4520 + addition to it from 1.4447

Exit the short position at market (1.4481) with total profit 5 pips.

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Nov 5 2007, 17:37 GMT

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GBP/USD: Very powerfull upside trend

Thu, Nov 1 2007, 14:41 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

GBP/USD Chart

The current rise of the cable proved to be far stronger than my initial expectations. It is obvious that the upside trend is very powerful and every one short position from current levels will be too risky. So in my opinion one should avoid entering short from here. However I am not sure if the long positions are the correct decision because upon the long term count we could be very close to a temporary high. With an eye on this uncertainty I prefer to be currently flat. The chart shows my working count which suggests that the rise started from 2.0257 is an impulse or a zigzag. In both cases we should see at least one more high. A key support is the trendline shown on the chart.

Trading strategy: 11:18 EST; 15:18 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Thu, Nov 1 2007, 14:41 GMT

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EUR/USD: Confidence level – changed from low to moderate

Mon, Oct 29 2007, 14:27 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

EUR /USD Chart

As you know I think that we are close to at least temporary high so I am currently short. This position is based on the idea that the movement started from 1.3550 is a terminal impulse (ending diagonal) upon me and we are currently in wave 5 of it. This assumption requires staying below 1.4458 and beginning of a sharp sell-off with minimum target in coming months – 1.3550. A first signal for this idea will be a fall below the lower trendline of the channel shown on the chart so if I see such a fall, I will add to the existing short position. Only a rise above 1.4458 will abort the presented idea and will force me to revise my working count.

Trading strategy: 10:00 EST; 14:00 GMT

Short position from 1.4395, stop loss - 1.4465, target - opened

Confidence level – changed from low to moderate

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Oct 29 2007, 14:27 GMT

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USD/JPY: Confidence level – moderate

Fri, Oct 26 2007, 16:09 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

USD/JPY chart

I think the fall started from 117.93 is corrective in nature and is developing as a complex corrective combination which ends with a triangle. The big problem here is if the triangle is already over or will continue one or two more days. A first signal for its end will be a rise above 114.56 and confirmation – above 115.02. In such a case I expect an up-move for a new high above 117.93. A key support is 113.75 as a fall below it will abort the triangle idea and will bring a new fall below 113.22

Trading strategy: 10:00 EST; 14:00 GMT

Buy on break of 114.60 (buy stop order at 114.61), stop loss - 113.74, target - opened

Confidence level – moderate

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Oct 26 2007, 16:09 GMT

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GBP/USD: Confidence level – high

Wed, Oct 24 2007, 14:26 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

GBP/USD weekly chart

As you know there were sharp movements in both directions in the last few days. This is a signal for a possible triangle between 2.0243 and 2.0548, which could be bullish as well as bearish one. In both cases the possible triangle is far from completing. With an eye on the fact that we are close to the upper border of the triangle I entered small short position for at least test of the lower border. The chart shows the bearish triangle scenario which suggests that the cable will stay below 2.0548 and it will make a deep retracement (at least 61.8 %) of the whole movement started from 1.9650. However this scenario requires further consolidation in the said triangle in the next few days followed by a sharp fall below 2.0243. On the other side a rise above 2.0548 will signal that the triangle is bullish (not bearish as I expect) which should bring a re-test of the 2.0652 high.

Trading strategy: 09:48 EST; 13:48 GMT

Short position from 2.0475, stop loss - 2.0555, target - opened

Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Trading strategy: 09:48 EST; 13:48 GMT

Sell on recovery to 1.4210, stop loss - 1.4280, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Oct 24 2007, 14:26 GMT

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EUR/USD: Confidence level – high

Mon, Oct 22 2007, 14:41 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

EUR/USD chart

Today we saw something very interesting. In the last few months there wasn’t a sharp sell-off in EUR/USD so today’s sharp fall grasp the attention of the traders. This movement signals that a correction of the recent rise has already started. In my opinion the key support here is 1.4014. If we see a fall below it, it will signal that the movement started from 1.1639 is currently retracing with minimum requirement 50 % retracement i.e. levels around 1.3000 in coming months. From the shorter term point of view we have an impulsive fall started today so I give a strategy to enter short on minor correction with a stop loss above 61.8 % retracement. If we see such a movement followed by a resuming of the fall, one should expect a new low below 1.4014 till the end of the month. A key resistance is 1.4280 and a rise above it will bring back the upside focus for a re-test of 1.4348 high.

Trading strategy: 09:48 EST; 13:48 GMT

Sell on recovery to 1.4210, stop loss - 1.4280, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Oct 22 2007, 14:41 GMT

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EUR/USD: Confidence level – moderate

Mon, Oct 15 2007, 14:04 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

The chart shows the movement after the reached high 1.4281. It is obvious that the fall to 1.4014 is corrective in nature. The subsequent rise is also corrective in nature in my opinion. This is a signal for a possible triangle i.e. a few week consolidation between 1.4014 and 1.4281 could be seen. From such point of view is reasonable to enter short position for a deep retracement of the last rise. However I will not sell from the current levels because there are no reliable criteria for a stop loss for an eventual short position – this possible triangle allows a rise above 1.4281. So I will sell only if I see a sharp retrace of the last wave c shown on the chart with target 80.9 % retracement of the rise started from 1.4014.

Trading strategy: 09:30 EST; 13:30 GMT

Sell on break of 1.4168 (sell stop order at 1.4167), stop loss - 1.4247, target – 1.4060

Confidence level – moderate

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Oct 15 2007, 14:04 GMT

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USD/JPY: Confidence level – high

Fri, Oct 5 2007, 14:00 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

No new report available until Monday, Octuber 15th

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

USD/JPY chart

The multi weeks consolidation in USD/JPY between 117.11 and 111.58 is a triangle upon me. The current rise is a signal that this triangle is broken from the upside i.e. it is bullish in nature. The interesting here is that there is a high probability this triangle to complete the whole decline started from 124.12 and if this idea is correct, one should expect a very big rise with potential target 125.00 in coming months. From the short term point of view I think that the current up-move started from 114.01 and it is impulsive in nature. The chart shows my working count which suggests that we are currently in wave 3 (the previous wave 2 was a running correction). If the presented idea is correct, the current wave 3 should have as a minimum requirement 119.35 where it will be 1.618 of the length of wave 1. A key support upon the presented scenario is 116.34

Trading strategy: 09:30 EST; 13:30 GMT

Long position from 116.41, move the stop loss from 115.50 to 116.30, target – 119.35

Addition to the long position from 116.81, move the stop loss from 116.25 to 116.30, target – 119.35

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Oct 5 2007, 14:00 GMT

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GBP/USD

Wed, Oct 3 2007, 14:22 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

GBP/USD chart

The chart shows the movement after the 2.0492 high. It looks like corrective one and could be already over at today’s low 2.0337. If this is the case, one should expect a new rise for a high above 2.0492. A break above 2.0414 will be a signal in this direction. However if we see a sharp fall below today’s low, this will be a very bearish signal so I made the stop loss of the current long position stop and reverse.

Trading strategy: 09:50 EST; 13:50 GMT

Long position from 2.0403, stop loss - 2.0335 (stop and reverse), target - opened

Confidence level – moderate

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency

Published on Wed, Oct 3 2007, 14:22 GMT

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USD/JPY

Fri, Sep 28 2007, 16:14 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

No new report available until Wednesday, Octuber 3rd

Trading strategy: 10:56 EST; 14:56 GMT

Short position opened from 115.26, move the stop loss from 115.91 to 115.25, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency

Published on Fri, Sep 28 2007, 16:14 GMT

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GBP/USD: Update

Fri, Sep 28 2007, 16:07 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

GBP/USD chart

The last few days rise of the cable aborted the wave count presented in the weekly analysis. Currently the situation allows a lot of possibilities in both directions so I prefer to be currently flat. One of the possibilities is presented on the chart and it suggests that there is a flat correction started from 2.0652. A fall below today’s low 2.0194 will be a signal in favor of this scenario. The alternative is a bullish triangle started from 2.0652. In such a case one should expect a new high above 2.0652 soon.

Trading strategy: 10:16 EST; 14:16 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Sep 28 2007, 16:07 GMT

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GBP/USD

Fri, Sep 28 2007, 08:49 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 04:46 EST; 08:46 GMT

The short position opened from 2.0201 was closed at 2.0276 with loss 75 pips.

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Sep 28 2007, 08:49 GMT

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USD/JPY

Fri, Sep 28 2007, 07:26 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 02:45 EST; 06:45 GMT

The short position opened from 115.36 was closed at 115.77 with loss 41 pips.

Sell again at market (115.26), stop loss - 115.91, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency

Published on Fri, Sep 28 2007, 07:26 GMT

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USD/JPY

Thu, Sep 27 2007, 09:04 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 05:12 EST; 09:12 GMT

Sell on break of 115.36 (sell stop order at 115.35), stop profit - 115.77, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency

Published on Thu, Sep 27 2007, 09:04 GMT

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EUR/USD

Thu, Sep 27 2007, 07:26 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 03:04 EST; 07:04 GMT

Sell on break of 1.4110 (sell stop order at 1.4109), stop loss - 1.4170, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency

Published on Thu, Sep 27 2007, 07:26 GMT

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GBP/USD: Update

Wed, Sep 26 2007, 14:05 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

GBP/USD chart

My weekly analysis suggests that the rise started from 1.9876 is wave E of a bearish triangle. It could be already over at 2.0316 and we could be currently in the beginning of the anticipated sell-off. To my regret the yesterday’s fall below the lower trendline of the channel shown on the chart turned out to be false and we saw a significant recovery thereafter. This movement forced me to move the stop loss of the existing short positions in the daily analysis below the break-even to avoid any loss and as a result the stop profit was hit. However my expectations remain unchanged so I continue to look to the downside. A fall below 2.0082 will be bearish upon me so I put a sell stop order below it. . A confirmation for the bearish idea will be a subsequent fall below 1.9876 in coming days. A key resistance for the presented count is 2.0227

Trading strategy: 08:04 EST; 12:04 GMT

Sell on break of 2.0082 (sell stop order at 2.0081), stop loss - 2.0185, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Sep 26 2007, 14:05 GMT

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GBP/USD

Wed, Sep 26 2007, 10:59 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 06:46 EST; 10:46 GMT

Sell on break of 2.0082 (sell stop order at 2.0081), stop loss - 2.0185, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Sep 26 2007, 10:59 GMT

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EUR/USD: Confidence level – high

Wed, Sep 26 2007, 10:10 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

EUR/USD chart

The yesterday’s worries that the rise started from 1.3550 could be corrective in nature turned out to be premature and this possibility is no more possible after the reached new high at 1.4161. The chart shows my working count which suggests that we are currently in the last wave 5 of the movement started from 1.3550. I think this wave 5 is still unfinished so I expect a new high above 1.4161 later today. However I will not enter long for this movement because the upside potential could be limited (there is a high possibility the rise started from 1.4059 to be a terminal impulse) so I will look for a level for a short position instead. A key support is 1.4059. A fall below it will signal that wave 5 is already over. I will leave currently a working order for a short position on break of 1.4059 but if my expectations for a terminal impulse started from 1.4059 proved to be correct, we will have a reliable level for a short position around 1.4180/1.4200 later today or tomorrow with very close stop loss so if I see such a signal I will give a trading strategy.

Trading strategy: 05:13 EST; 09:13 GMT

Sell on break of 1.4059 (sell stop order at 1.4058), stop profit - 1.4133, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Sep 26 2007, 10:10 GMT

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GBP/USD daily

Tue, Sep 25 2007, 14:49 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

GBP/USD 60 minutos

Trading strategy: 07:49 EST; 11:49 GMT

Published on Tue, Sep 25 2007, 14:49 GMT

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EUR/USD Alert: Update

Tue, Sep 25 2007, 14:47 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 09:55 EST; 13:55 GMT

Published on Tue, Sep 25 2007, 14:47 GMT

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GBP/USD Alert: Update

Tue, Sep 25 2007, 14:44 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

Trading strategy: 09:02 EST; 13:02 GMT

Short position from 2.0247, move the stop profit from 2.0236 to 2.0170, target - opened

Addition to the short position from 2.0100, move the stop loss from 2.0236 to 2.0170, target - opened

Confidence level – high

Published on Tue, Sep 25 2007, 14:44 GMT

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EUR/USD: Short position

Tue, Sep 25 2007, 08:34 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

The chart shows part of the movement started from 1.3550. As you know I labeled it as wave C in the yesterday’s weekly analysis and the previous triangle labeled as wave B (see the weekly analysis). However I have currently some worries if the rise started from 1.3550 is wave C. They come from the currently developing pattern. It looks like a bearish triangle and if this idea comes true, the movement started from 1.3550 will turnout to be corrective in nature i.e. it could not be wave C. If this happens, I will look at it as wave A (corrective) instead and the previous triangle from the weekly analysis will become wave X. This idea suggests deeper correction of the rise started from 1.3550 (at least 61.8 % retracement) and we should see thereafter one more rise above 1.4129 in wave C. A key support currently is 1.4041 and if we see a fall below it followed by an acceleration of the fall, there will be a confirmation for the presented bearish count for a deeper correction down. Looking at wave e of the triangle shown on the chart, I have to admit that it could not started yet i.e. one more attempt up is still possible. However I will not move the stop loss of the short position because it is currently on the right place (the upside was limited to 1.4091 once I lowered the stop loss to 1.4092). In a case it is taken, I will give a strategy to sell again on a break of the current low.

Short position from 1.4093, stop profit - 1.4092, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Trading strategy: 04:46 EST; 04:46 GMT

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Tue, Sep 25 2007, 08:34 GMT

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USD/JPY: Stand aside

Fri, Sep 21 2007, 15:14 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

USD/JPY chart

The chart present the movement started from 111.58. In the way it looks like, there is a high possibility to develop a triangle. The more likely scenario for it is bearish triangle and this scenario is presented on the chart. A key resistance is 116.36 and a break above it will make the situation bullish for a high above 117.11 and probably much higher. On the other side a key support is 113.97 and a fall below it should bring a new low below 111.58 shortly. Entering position is risky currently so I prefer to be flat today.

Trading strategy: 08:55 EST; 12:55 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Sep 21 2007, 15:14 GMT

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GBP/USD: Confidence level – high

Wed, Sep 19 2007, 14:40 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

GBP/USD chart

The chart presents my working count. It suggests that the fall started from 2.0364 is corrective in nature and developed as a triple corrective combination. It finished at 1.9876 and the subsequent rise is its correction. The big question is if it is already over at today’s high 2.0172 or we will see one more rise before its end. My feeling is that we will see one more high above 2.0172 and a movement above 2.0014 will be a signal in such a direction. With an eye on this I moved the stop profit of today’s short position to 2.0020 and made it stop and reverse. On the other side an acceleration of the fall should bring a low below 1.9876 shortly.

Trading strategy: 09:21 EST; 13:21 GMT

Short position from 2.0145, stop profit - 2.0020 (stop and reverse), target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Sep 19 2007, 14:40 GMT

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EUR/USD

Mon, Sep 17 2007, 14:04 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

The chart shows the movement after the reached high 1.3927. It is obvious that the decline is corrective in nature. Earlier today there was a possibility for a direct rise above the previous high so I entered long. However the subsequent fall proved that the euro is still not ready to resume the uptrend and we saw a sideways movement instead. I think that there is a high possibility the movement started from 1.3927 to turn out a triangle. If this idea is correct, we should see more sideways movement before resuming of the uptrend later this week. So I think that in the up direction one should wait before entering a long position. The interesting here is the fact that there is a possibility the possible triangle to be not bullish but bearish one. A fall below 1.3842 will reinforce this view and in a case of a fall below it, I will expect more losses. So I put a strategy to sell below this level in case we see a sell-off from here.

EUR USD Chart

Trading strategy: 08:12 EST; 12:12 GMT

The long position opened from 1.3887 was closed at 1.3855 with loss 32 pips.

Buy on break of 1.3842 (sell stop order at 1.3841), stop loss - 1.3886, target - opened

Confidence level – low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts

Published on Mon, Sep 17 2007, 14:04 GMT

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USD/JPY

Fri, Sep 14 2007, 13:48 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

USDJPY chart

he chart presents my working wave count for the rise started from 112.58. I think that it is developing as a double corrective combination which is not over yet. The second phase of this corrective combination could be a flat or a triangle. The former scenario suggests new high above 115.48 while the latter scenario suggests sideways movement without a new high above 115.48. Once the corrective combination is over, I expect a new fall below 112.58. With an eye on this expectation I will look for an entry level for a short position but I will wait till next week.

Trading strategy: 09:20 EST; 13:20 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Sep 14 2007, 13:48 GMT

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USD/JPY: Confidence level − moderate

Fri, Aug 31 2007, 15:25 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

USD/JPY chart

The rise started from 111.58 is obviously corrective in nature in nature. The subsequent fall to 113.84 is its correction but it stayed above 61.8 % retracement. However I expect this correction to be at least 61.8 % retracement so I expect at least one more fall to 113.84 in wave c of B. With an eye on there expectations I entered short earlier today. A key resistance is 117.11. A key support is 115.20. A fall below it will signal that the anticipated movement for a new low below 113.84.

Trading strategy: 11:10 EST; 15:10 GMT

Short position from 116.42, stop loss – 117.15, target – 113.70

Confidence level - moderate

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Aug 31 2007, 15:25 GMT

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GBP/USD: Stand aside

Wed, Aug 29 2007, 13:45 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

GBP/USD chart

The presented yesterday scenario looks very likely from today’s point of view. It suggests that the fall started from 2.0652 is over at the reached low 1.9650 and a recovery is currently under way with minimum requirement 2.0263 which is 61.8 % retracement of the said fall. I think that this correction will turn out to be time consuming and the indicated 2.0263 target will not be reached directly, but after an initial retreat to 1.9850. From the short term point of view there are two possibilities: a consolidation around current levels (if the movement after wave x is a bearish triangle) or a new high above 2.0191 (if the movement after wave x is a flat correction). I will be currently neutral because I don’t have a reliable level for an eventual short position. I wrote eventual short position because I expect a fall to 1.9850 after completing the current pattern started from wave x shown on the chart. A key support is 1.9959

Trading strategy: 09:09 EST; 13:09 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Aug 29 2007, 13:45 GMT

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EUR/USD: Confidence level – high

Mon, Aug 27 2007, 10:06 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

EUR/USD chart

The chart shows the rise started from 1.3367. I think that it could be impulsive in nature for a new high above 1.3852. However this assumption requires continuation of the rise. An important support is 1.3587 and as long as it stays intact, I will favor the impulsive interpretation. However in a case of a fall below it, I think there will be a strong signal that the rise started from 1.3367 is corrective in nature which will lower significantly the possibility for a new high above 1.3852

Trading strategy: 05:12ST; 09:12GMT

Long position from 1.3492 and from 1.3550, move the stop loss from 1.3550 to 1.3585, target - opened

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Aug 27 2007, 10:06 GMT

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USD/JPY: Stand aside

Fri, Aug 24 2007, 16:13 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

USD/JPY chart

The rise started from 111.58 is corrective in nature upon me. It is obvious that this correction will be time consuming and is still far from completing. However there is a possibility for a deep retracement (at least 61.8 %) of the up-move started from 1115.58. From a short term point of view there is still no reliable signal in this direction but my feeling is that a bearish triangle will be formed as an end of the said up-move. This idea suggests some consolidation around current levels and subsequent fall below today’s low 115.50. Such a development will be a confirmation for the idea for a forthcoming fall with a potential target 113.65. Even a rise above 117.11 will not change the bearish view and will be seen as a marginal rise before the anticipated deeper retracement.

Trading strategy: 11:01 EST; 15:01 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Aug 24 2007, 16:13 GMT

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GBP/USD: Confidence level − high

Wed, Aug 22 2007, 14:54 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

I think that there is high possibility the last few day’s movement to turn out to be a bullish triangle which completes the whole fall started from 2.0652. If this suggestion comes true, one should expect at least 61.8 % retracement of the said fall. With an eye on these expectations I am currently long with a double position. However I don’t have confirmation that the triangle is already over so I can not rule out a marginal fall to 1.9800 before its completing. A rise above 1.9935 will be bullish so I put a buy stop order to add to the longs above it. On the other side a key support is 1.9741. As long as it stays intact, the bullish triangle scenario will be valid and only below it will force me to look for an alternative wave count.

Trading strategy: 10:02 EST; 14:02 GMT

Long position from 1.9750 and from 1.9825, move the stop loss from 1.9790 to 1.9740, target - opened

Add to the long position on break of 1.9940 (buy stop order at 1.9941), stop loss – 1.9840, target – opened.

Confidence level - high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Aug 22 2007, 14:54 GMT

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EUR/USD: Confidence level – changed from low to moderate

Mon, Aug 20 2007, 17:17 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

EUR/USD chart

The fall started from 1.3852 could be already over and we could be currently in the beginning of a movement for a new high. If this is the case, the down-move should be over not at the reached low 1.3358, but at the higher low 1.3367. The subsequent rise is presented on the chart and I think that there are conditions for further up-move. However there is still no clearness what will be the nature of the expected rise – impulsive or corrective. So I do not hurry to move the stop loss of the long position opened in the end of last week. If the impulsive scenario is developing, the correction started from 1.3546 should be limited to 61.8 % retracement while the corrective interpretation requires at least 61.8 % retracement. A rise above 1.3546 will be a bullish signal and will target 1.3660 initially and a re-test of 1.3852 high thereafter.

Trading strategy: 09:20 EST; 13:20 GMT

Long position opened from 1.3399, move the stop loss from 1.3340 to 1.3366, target - opened

Confidence level – changed from low to moderate

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Aug 20 2007, 17:17 GMT

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USD/JPY: Confidence level − high

Fri, Aug 17 2007, 17:21 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

USD/JPY chart

The current sharp sell-off of the dollar is a signal that the terminal impulse idea from the mid-term analysis is indeed developing and it suggests further losses below 100 yen per dollar in coming months. Looking at the short term picture I think that wave 4 down is developing as a triangle. If this idea proves to be correct, some consolidation between 111.58 and 114.88 is forthcoming before another sell-off in wave 5 for a low below 111.58.

Trading strategy: 10:59 EST; 14:59 GMT

Sell on upmove to 114.25, stop loss - 114.95, target - 112.90

Confidence level - high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Aug 17 2007, 17:21 GMT

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EUR/USD: Confidence level – moderate

Mon, Aug 13 2007, 14:02 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

EUR/USD chart

The chart shows the movement after the reached record high at 1.3852. I think that the current consolidation is a triangle so we should be in the end of wave c of it. If this idea is correct, the euro should stay above 1.3608 and should consolidate further in 1.3830 – 1.3640 range before a break out of the triangle. I expect an upside break which should bring an acceleration above 1.4000 in coming weeks. On the other side a fall below 1.3608 will signal an downside break which will increase the possibility for a test of the key mid-term support 1.3260.

Trading strategy: 08:40 EST; 12:40 GMT

Long position from 1.3675, stop loss - 1.3607, target from - 1.3800

Confidence level – moderate

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Aug 13 2007, 14:02 GMT

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USD/JPY: Confidence level − low

Fri, Aug 10 2007, 13:41 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

USD/JPY chart

The chart shows my working count for the movement after the low 117.16. The rise to 119.82 is obviously corrective in nature. The subsequent fall is very sharp and looks impulsive at first glance. However I think that there are high chances to turn out also corrective in nature as is shown on the chart. A rise above 118.20 will signal that this idea is correct and will open the gate for a re-test of 119.82 high. Entering long here is risky but I entered long position with a stop and reverse below 117.16. I put such an order below 117.16 because in case we see a fall below it, a sell-off to 115.00 is likely.

Trading strategy: 09:31 EST; 13:31 GMT

Long position from 117.60, stop loss - 117.15 (stop and reverse), target - 119.85

Confidence level - low

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Aug 10 2007, 13:41 GMT

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GBP/USD: Confidence level − high

Wed, Aug 8 2007, 14:27 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

GBP/USD chart

My working count suggests that we have an irregular flat correction started from 2.0178 (29 July). The current rise started from today’s low is wave C of it. A possible level for its end is 2.0435 where wave C will be equal to wave A but there is not problem to see a new high above 2.0460. So the perspective is bullish in short term. With an eye on this one should buy on every dip because wave C is still far from completing. Unfortunately my previous strategy to enter long on dips to 2.0220 was not executed for just 1 pip so I give currently a strategy to enter long on 38.2 % retracement with a stop loss above 61.8 % retracement. The target will be determined later because I need to see how deep will be the expected retracement to calculate the projection target of the next up-move. Only a fall below 61.8 % retracement of today’s rise will abort the bullish prospective and will signal a new test of 2.0155.

Trading strategy: 08:48 EST; 12:48 GMT

Buy on dips to 2.0285, stop loss - 2.0225, target - opened

Confidence level - high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Aug 8 2007, 14:27 GMT

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EUR/USD: Stand aside

Mon, Aug 6 2007, 11:42 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

EUR/USD chart

The chart presents my current wave count. It suggests that the last rise is impulsive in nature but it is still uncompleted. The forthcoming wave 5 of it should make a rise above 1.3852, but there is a possibility for a subsequent sell-off later. Although I expect more upside in short term, I will be flat because the wave 4 shown on the chart could be not over yet and also the upside potential could be only 50-60 pips from current level. I don’t have currently a position so I think that it is wise not to jump at the market by all means. A key support is 1.3740. A fall below it will abort the possibility for a new high above 1.3852 and will change the focus to the downside.

Trading strategy: 07:38 EST; 11:38 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Aug 6 2007, 11:42 GMT

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USD/JPY: Buy on break of 119.52

Fri, Aug 3 2007, 14:17 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

Scenario 1:

USD/JPY chart

Scenario 2:

USD/JPY chart

The situation is unclear currently and we could see big movements in both sides. The more likely scenario looks the bullish one after the sharp recovery started from this week’s low 117.58. The bullish count is presented on the first chart and it suggests that there is a bullish triangle which completes the whole fall started from 124.12. If this is the case, more upside should be expected with a potential target new high above 124.12. The alternative scenario suggests that the rise started from 117.58 is wave C of an irregular flat correction. In such a case a sharp fall below 117.58 should be expected. If this really happens, there will be a confirmation for a long term reversal and I will expect fall to 100 in long term. An important resistance is 119.48 so I gave a strategy to enter long above it. However one should bear in mind that the bearish scenario will be still possible even after an eventual rise above 119.48 so the eventual long position should be with stop and reverse below 119.00

Trading strategy: 08:01 EST; 12:01 GMT

Buy on break of 119.52 (buy stop order at 119.53), stop loss - 118.95 (stop and reverse), target - opened

Confidence level - moderate

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Aug 3 2007, 14:17 GMT

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GBP/USD: Stand aside

Wed, Aug 1 2007, 14:09 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

GBP/USD chart

The chart shows my working count for the fall started from 2.0652. I think that the previous up-move finished not at the reached high, but at 2.0491 where is the end of a possible bearish triangle. If this idea is correct. we have an impulsive fall followed by a flat correction with currently developing wave C of it. It should make a new high above yesterday’s 2.0376 and if this is the end of the correction, one should expect a sharp sell-off below 2.0200. A key support is 2.0255 while the key resistance is 2.0400

Trading strategy: 09:53 EST; 13:53 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Wed, Aug 1 2007, 14:09 GMT

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EUR/USD: Short position from 1.3650

Mon, Jul 30 2007, 15:36 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

EUR/USD hourly chart

The chart presents my working count. It suggests that the fall started from the 1.3852 high is a possible impulse. This suggestion will become a fact if the euro stays below 1.3691 (the end of the potential wave 1) and a new sell-off follows. However if we see a rise above 1.3691, this will be a signal that the fall is probably corrective in nature, not impulsive. I wrote probably because there is also another bearish possibility – the whole movement after the end of the wave 1 shown on the chart to turn out to be wave 2 and the rise started from 1.3608 will turn out to be wave c of 2 in such a case. This alternative allows overlapping of 1.3691 without any damage on the bearish outlook. However I prefer to leave the stop loss at 1.3695 unchanged and if it is taken, I will re-enter short if I see a sharp fall below 1.3608

Trading strategy: 11:14 EST; 15:14 GMT

Short position from 1.3650, stop loss -1.3695, target - open

Confidence level – high

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Jul 30 2007, 15:36 GMT

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EUR/USD: Sell on break of 1.3759

Mon, Jul 16 2007, 13:00 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

No new report available until 30 July

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

EUR/USD hourly chart

The bullish triangle mentioned last week probably continues to develop. If this scenario comes true, the potential triangle will be irregular triangle where wave a is smaller than wave b. It is presented on the chart and it requires an initial retreat is wave e (but not lower than today’s low 1.3759) followed by another rise above 1.3813. However there is also a bearish scenario. It will become preferred if we see a sharp fall below 1.3759 for a less time than took the rise started from there to 1.3802. So I give currently a strategy to enter short on break of 1.3759 and if this not happen, I will look for an entry level for a long position upon the triangle scenario presented on the chart.

Trading strategy: 08:19 EST; 12:19 GMT

Sell on break of 1.3759 (sell stop order at 1.3758), stop loss - 1.3798, target - open

Confidence level - moderate

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Jul 16 2007, 13:00 GMT

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USD/JPY daily

Fri, Jul 13 2007, 15:02 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

My working count suggests that the fall started from 124.12 ends with the triangle shown on the chart i.e. I look at it as a complex corrective combination which ends with a triangle. This corrective fall suggests at least 61.8 % retracement up or even a new high above 124.12. The problem here is the fact that the current recovery is also corrective in nature which makes the possible scenarios too many. With an eye on this I am currently flat. From a short term point of view a key support is 121.30. As long as the dollar stays above it, one should expect further recovery with a minimum target 123.05. However if the said support is broken and especially of we see a fall below 120.96, I will consider this as a very bearish signal from the long term point of view.

USDJPY Chart

Trading strategy: 10:33 EST; 14:33 GMT

Stand aside

This analysis has only informational and educational purpose and does not represent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Fri, Jul 13 2007, 15:02 GMT

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EUR/USD daily

Mon, Jul 9 2007, 14:14 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

EUR/USD daily chart

The fall started from 1.3658 is a three waves structure i.e. it is corrective in nature. The subsequent rise started from 1.3566 is very strong and looks like an impulse. However my feeling is that it will also turn out corrective in nature. With an eye on this I count it as a potential wave B. If this assumption proves correct, the supposed wave B could be wave B of a triangle or wave B of a flat correction. In the former case when wave B is over, one should expect consolidation between 1.3566 and its end while the latter scenario suggests a direct fall below 1.3566 in the next wave C. Looking at the structure of the supposed wave B, currently there is no signal that it is over. Such a signal will be a sharp fall below 1.3609 but as long as the euro stays above it, the more likely scenario is a rise for a high above 1.3640 before the end of wave B. A key resistance is 1.3681. A rise above it will abort the presented count and will signal that the rise started from 1.3566 is impulsive, not corrective as I suggest. With an eye on the uncertainty I will be currently flat but if I see a rise above 1.3640, I will give a strategy to enter short on break of 1.3609 or long on break of 1.3581

Trading strategy: 08:54 EST; 12:54 GMT

Stand aside

Trading strategy: 02:16 EST; 06:16 GMT

Stand aside

Thisanalysis has only informational and educational purpose and does notrepresent a proposal for buying or selling currency contracts.

Published on Mon, Jul 9 2007, 14:14 GMT

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USD/JPY daily

Fri, Jul 6 2007, 09:42 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

USD/JPY 2 Hour Chart

Published on Fri, Jul 6 2007, 09:42 GMT

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GBP/USD daily

Wed, Jul 4 2007, 15:32 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

GBP/USD 2 hour chart

Published on Wed, Jul 4 2007, 15:32 GMT

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EUR/USD daily

Mon, Jul 2 2007, 15:30 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Wednesday
Daily USD/JPY Elliott Wave Outlook - Friday

EUR/USD daily chart

Published on Mon, Jul 2 2007, 15:30 GMT

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USD/JPY daily

Fri, Jun 29 2007, 14:39 GMT
by Dimo Dimov

This report will be updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday on the next schedule:

Daily EUR/USD Elliott Wave Outlook - Monday
Daily GBP/USD Elliott Wave