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New Zealand Cuts Interest Rates by 150bp to 3.5%

Thu, Jan 29 2009, 02:40 GMT
by Kathy Lien

GFT


New Zealand Cuts Interest Rates by 150bp to 3.5%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has surprised the markets once again by cutting interest rates 150bp to 3.5 percent, the lowest level in 10 years. Today's rate cut matches their move in December, which at that time, was the largest ever.  

Over the course of 2 months, the RBNZ has cut interest rates by 3 percent. Since July of 2008, they have reduced interest rates by a total of 475bp.  The larger move was motivated by a worsening outlook for New Zealand exports and the need for more stimulus.  The New Zealand government was late to cut interest rates and they are making up for it now.

More rate cuts are still expected according to RBNZ Governor Bollard but they will not be as large.  New Zealand rates will probably come down to at least 2.5 percent before they hit a bottom. For the first time since December 2003, Australia now offers now a higher interest rate than New Zealand.  This should lead to more strength for AUD/NZD.  

The prospect of more rate cuts as well as the threat of a credit rating downgrade should be bearish for the New Zealand dollar and could drive the NZD/USD back towards 50 cents.


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