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Daily Market Commentary

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The dollar surged against the European and the commodity currencies

Tue, Oct 7 2008, 07:57 GMT
by Cornelius Luca

GFT

Massive liquidation (or capitulation, if you prefer) of carry trades torpedoed AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY, while the structural inability of the Eurozone to put together a euro-TARP gave the green light to vicious sales of euros. Granted, Germany, France and Italy joined Ireland in guaranteeing all depositors, but that’s not what the market wanted to listen to. The dollar surged against the European and the commodity currencies, while sinking versus the yen. This move was severely overdone, and we should see the opposite first.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar sank to a 14-month low in aggressive trading and probed the channel support before making a mild bounce. It’s severely oversold, but the upside looks limited – unless the US stocks soar. Immediate support is at 1.3443. Below 1.3350 there is support at 1.3260. Distant support looms at 1.3145. Resistance comes at 1.3615. Above 1.3705, the euro/dollar has resistance at 1.3857. Distant resistance follows at 1.3980.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen fell prey to significant cross sales and plunged to an over six-month low and nearly touched parity before bouncing. It also triggered an irregular head-and-shoulders pattern, but I have to take that with a grain of salt because the sub-parity target is too exotic. Initial support is seen at 101.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75. The low on Monday was defined by another 50-point pivot at 100.25, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. Distant support is at 99.25 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75. Immediate resistance is at 102.30 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. Above 103.40 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90, distant resistance looms at 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.

Oscillators are sliding.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Cable slumped to a 2 ½-year low on Monday before trimming losses. Following an early bounce, the sell-off should continue. Immediate support is at 1.7337. Below 1.7250, the next big level is 1.7110. Initial resistance looms at 1.7500. The next level is 1.7650. Above 1.7838, distant resistance is at 1.8000.

Oscillators are bearish.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc rallied to a new high for the uptrend but held below the channel line. Following a mild pull back, the upside should be revisited. Initial resistance is at 1.1500. Above 1.1590, distant resistance comes at 1.1875. Immediate support is at 1.1435. Below 1.1395, support is seen at 1.1308. Good support follows at 1.1220.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Published on  Tue, Oct 7 2008, 08:02 GMT