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Daily Market Commentary

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The dollar consolidated on Friday

Mon, Sep 29 2008, 06:16 GMT
by Cornelius Luca

GFT

The dollar consolidated on Friday but should advance on Monday on news that the US Congress will ratify the Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). The dollar is lacking much direction, but given the illiquid trading conditions and the ratification of the TARP, its bias is up. The US economic agenda will open on Monday with the release of the personal income and spending reports for August.

Euro/dollar

The euro/dollar fell to a one-week low but remained in an inside range and my model remains long. The short term outlook is bearish. Immediate support is at 1.4486. The next level is 1.4438. Below 1.4370, support is at 1.4255. Initial resistance is seen at 1.4600. The next level is 1.4685. Above 1.4735, resistance is still seen at 1.4810.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen is alternating up and down days. My model remains long, but the pair is in a triangle and the medium-term outlook remains mixed. It’s slightly bullish in the short term. Immediate resistance is at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. The next level is 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45. Good support is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. This is followed at 104.50 by a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar fell early on Monday but my model remains long. The downside is favored in the short term. My model remains long but the downside is favored first. Initial support is at 1.8250. Below this level, strong support now comes at 1.8110. This is followed by 1.7917.

Initial resistance is at 1.8355. Good resistance follows at 1.8475 and 1.8515. Above the strong level at 1.8668, further resistance is at 1.8750.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc climbed to a one-week high, but remains stuck in an inside range and my model remains short. The initial bias is bullish. Initial resistance now comes at 1.0973. The next level is 1.1055. This is followed by 1.1185 and 1.1279. Immediate support is at 1.0890. Below 1.0790, support is now pegged at 1.0698.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Published on  Mon, Sep 29 2008, 06:25 GMT