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Daily Market Commentary
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The dollar cannot do much more than consolidate
Thu, Sep 25 2008, 06:10 GMT
by Cornelius Luca
While the TARP remains under debate, the dollar cannot do much more than consolidate. The risk of a sharp decline will increase if the street doesn’t see this plan materializing, especially going into the weekend. Keep an eye on the US new home sales and on the volatile durable goods orders. The dollar’s bias is lower.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar edged further down on Wednesday in choppy trading but remained in an inside range. My model remains long and the risk is on the upside. Above 1.4765, resistance is at 1.4825. Then, there is a pivot high at 1.4865. Further resistance is now seen at 1.4910 and 1.4960. Immediate support is seen at 1.4650. Below 1.4600, the next level is 1.4530. This is still followed by 1.4485.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen climbed on Wednesday. While it remained stuck in an inside range, my model went long. It doesn’t look like a staying upmove, and the next move should be lower. Initial support moved to 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. Further support is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. Above 106.10, resistance is now at 106.75 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Just like the euro/dollar, sterling/dollar slipped further on profit taking after surging on Monday. It remains in an inside range and my model remains long. The upside remains favored in the short term, but once again, only a break above 1.8639 would get the market excited now. Above this level, the next resistance is now seen at 1.8722. Above 1.8800, distant resistance remains at 1.9115. Immediate support is at 1.8520. The next levels are 1.8405 and 1.8355. Distant support is 1.8250.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc bounced further on Wednesday on profit taking, but my model remains short. The initial bias is bearish, and only a break below 1.0825 will now suggest further weakness. Initial support is 1.0825. The next level is 1.0780. Below 1.0698, distant support remains at 1.0535. Immediate resistance is at 1.0935. The next levels are 1.0990 and 1.1060. Distant resistance remains at 1.1280.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Published on Thu, Sep 25 2008, 06:13 GMT
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