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The dollar made little progress versus most of the majors
Fri, Aug 29 2008, 06:28 GMT
by Cornelius Luca
The dollar made little progress versus most of the majors, but pushed further up against the pound. Trading will get very thin in the short day before the Labor Day weekend, but the US economic calendar is busy. It will feature personal income and spending reports for July, the Chicago PMI report for August, the University of Michigan survey for September, and the core PCE deflator report for July. Expect choppy trading without much direction.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar reversed early gains to close lower on Thursday, as expected. Once again, following an early recovery, the pair should resume its decline. My model is long. Initial resistance is now seen at 1.4760. The next levels are 1.4780 and 1.4800. A pivotal level is in place at 1.4910. Immediate support comes at 1.4665. The next level is 1.4572. Below 1.4540, support comes at 1.4485 and 1.4455.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen consolidated in an inside range on Thursday and closed virtually unchanged. Again. Unless the 110.00 area gives way, the pair will retest the 108.65 area. My model remains (barely) short. Immediate resistance is still in place at 110.00. Strong resistance follows at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.85 and 110.85. Distant resistance is 111.60 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10. Strong support remains at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar sank further a new over two-year low on Thursday and the selling pressure should continue. Initial support is at 1.8240. Below 1.8207, cable has support at 1.8127. Immediate resistance now comes at 1.8355. This is followed by 1.8437 and 1.8565. The next strong resistance remains 1.8620.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss closed marginally higher after alternating up and down days for nine days. The medium-term outlook remains positive, but trading should remain choppy to early next week. Initial resistance remains at 1.1025. The next levels come at 1.1054 and 1.1086. Strong resistance follows at 1.1185. The pair still sees immediate support at 1.0955. This is followed by the area between 1.0925 and 1.0915. A pivot low remains at 1.0844, but this should not be challenged.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Published on Fri, Aug 29 2008, 06:33 GMT
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