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Daily Market Commentary
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The risk for the dollar is on the downside
Fri, Aug 1 2008, 06:10 GMT
by Cornelius Luca
The contraction of the fourth quarter US GDP, along with softer than expected subsequent GDP reports and a huge weekly jobless report hurt the dollar in morning US trading as expected. But the buck recovered losses in aggressive trading at the end of the month and ahead of the US non-farm payrolls. The risk for the dollar is on the downside, but only for the day.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar gave back early aggressive gains to close virtually unchanged. Today, the risk is on the upside for the euro. Immediate resistance remains at 1.5630. Above 1.5700, the next resistance is 1.5770 from a Fibonacci retracement level. The next levels remain 1.5790, 1.5820, and 1.5860. These are followed by 1.5943. Initial support comes at 1.5555. A pivot low is at 1.5523. Further support follows at 1.5460. Distant support is at 1.5305.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen had an outside day on Thursday, but when the dust settled it closed slightly lower. The key level remains the 107.95 pivot, and the pair should encounter further swinging around it today. Support is at 107.45. Distant support follows at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25. Immediate resistance is at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.. Distant resistance is at 109.15.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Cable mimicked euro/dollar and surrendered early aggressive gains to close virtually unchanged on Thursday. Today, the pound’s risk is on the upside. Initial resistance still comes at 1.9840. Above 1.9880, the next significant level is at 1.9970. There is a pivot high at 2.0075. Immediate support remains at 1.9790. This is followed by 1.9747 and 1.9690. Distant support is still seen at 1.9650.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss recouped early losses to close basically flat on Thursday. The risk remains on the downside today. Initial support is seen at 1.0440. Below 1.0370, support now comes at 1.0315. Distant support is pegged at 1.0200. Immediate resistance is at 1.0522. Above 1.0545, resistance now comes at 1.0622. This is followed by 1.0790.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Published on Fri, Aug 1 2008, 06:11 GMT
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