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Daily Market Commentary
The dollar came under fire
Wed, Mar 26 2008, 07:12 GMT
by Cornelius Luca
Once trading resumed around the world, the dollar came under fire. This means its earlier strength was only a bounce within the downtrend. With a wave of weak economic data, that’s not hard to swallow. Wednesday should see more soft US data (home sales and durable goods orders). Expect choppy to lower bias for the dollar.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied on Tuesday and this means expectations for a peak were premature. My model went long. Expect a choppy attempt to pad its gains. Initial resistance is at 1.5656. The next level is 1.5700. Above 1.5760, key resistance now comes at 1.5904. Immediate support is seen at 1.5570. Below 1.5475, there is further support at 1.5410.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen reversed gains from an 11-day high to close lower on Tuesday. My model is long, but I want to be square here because the risk is on the downside. Choppy to lower trading is likely today. Initial support is at 99.65. Below 99.00, distant support is at 98.46. Immediate resistance is now seen at 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. This is followed by 101.25. The next level is seen at 101.90.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied on Tuesday to close again above 2.0000, and my model went long. I expect a choppy upmove today. Initial resistance now comes at 2.0085. This is followed by 2.0155. A break above 2.0205 would signal another further rally to the peak at 2.0397. Immediate support is now seen at 2.0005. Below 1.9955, the next level follows at 1. 9880. There is a pivot low at 1.9738.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fail to surpass the resistance from its declining trendline and reversed Monday’s gains. My model is still long but it’s within a whisker from getting short, so I prefer to get square. Mixed to lower trading is likely. Immediate support is seen at 1.0000. Below 0.9950, there is support at 0.9880 and 0.9775. Distant support is now pegged at 0.9642. Initial resistance is seen at 1.0115. The next level is 1.0200. Further resistance is at 1.0370.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Published on Wed, Mar 26 2008, 07:27 GMT
Archive
- The dollar fell further on Monday versus the euro and the pound
Published On Tue, May 13 2008, 06:07 GMT - The dollar fell across the board on Friday
Published On Mon, May 12 2008, 06:39 GMT - The dollar rallied versus the European currencies but sank versus the yen
Published On Fri, May 9 2008, 06:17 GMT - The dollar rallied on Wednesday versus the European currencies
Published On Thu, May 8 2008, 06:42 GMT - The dollar encountered very choppy reading on Tuesday
Published On Wed, May 7 2008, 06:25 GMT
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