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Daily Forex Technical Report

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Daily Forex Technical Report − Dollar Remains Under Pressure

Fri, Nov 24 2006, 07:48 GMT
by ActionForex.com Team

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Forex Daily Technical Report

Dollar Remains Under Pressure

Dollar continues to remain under pressure today against majors but downside momentum is seen diminishing due to low market activity. Economic calendar is also light today with focus on UK GDP which is expected to grow steadily at 0.7% qoq, 2.8% yoy in Q3. However, both exports and imports are expected to slow to 1.0% and 0.5% growth respectively. Just released, Oct German import price dropped 0.3%, dragging yoy growth to 3.0% but both are slightly better than expectation.

Earlier today, New Zealand's trade deficit rose sharply to 1.167b in Oct , the second largest on record for a single month, as imports surged to 3.88b and exports shrank to 2.71b. Kiwi fell to an intraday low of 0.6679 immediately following the news but quickly recovers.

Read full report (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY) here.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.92; (P) 116.36; (R1) 116.71; More

USD/JPY recovers mildly after reaching as low as 116.02. At this point, even though downside momentum could be diminishing with 4 hours MACD turning flat, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as USD/JPY stays below 116.71 minor resistance and further decline is expected to follow towards 38.2% retracement of 108.99 to 119.86 at 115.71. Above 116.71 resistance will suggest an intraday low is formed and some consolidations should follow before another fall.

In the bigger picture, previous break below 117.37 support was first warning that whole medium term up trend from 108.99 has completed. In other words, the break above multi-year trend line resistance (147.68 to 135.20 then to 121.38), relatively briefly in that time frame, could indeed be a false break. But this is not confirmed yet as USD/JPY still holds above 38.2% retracement of 108.99 to 119.86 at 115.71. However, since rebound from 116.56 is still limited by 118.65 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 119.86 to 116.56 at 118.60), favor is still mildly on the case that further decline will follow.

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Published on  Fri, Nov 24 2006, 07:47 GMT


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