Good morning from wonderful Hamburg. Currently we are in a very interesting market situation. After a ten-day upward trend in global stocks, the pessimists seems to be silent…
Market review
In early Tuesday trading the EUR/USD held firm after hitting its highest level in eight weeks at 1.4298 the previous day when a jump in US new-home sales encouraged investors to buy riskier assets. Purchases of new homes in the US climbed 11 % in June. This was the biggest gain in eight years. The result underscores the evidence that the deepest housing slump since the Great Depression is starting to stabilize. In general the USD and the JPY lost ground yesterday, because the market tone for a softer USD and JPY remain unchanged amid a solid performance for stocks. But the JPY lost 0.2 % against the Greenback and reached the lowest level in almost three weeks on a forecast the S&P / Case Shiller index of 20 major metropolitan areas will show the property values fell 17.9 % in May. The JPY fell further under pressure as analysts raised their profit estimates for US companies for the first time since 2007.
Yesterday the AUD/USD increased 0.6 % and is trading near the highest level in more than one month. But the gains in the AUD may be limited because the market expects the Reserve Bank of Australia may signal a change in the monetary policy amid better economic data. The NZD/USD slid to 0.6553 after the nation’s annual trade deficit unexpectedly widened in June.
GBP/CHF
Since 2009, the GBP/CHF has been trading in an upward trend channel. In July the strength of the bulls weakened and the GBP crossed the lower line of the duct. Nevertheless, the outbreak was stopped by a strong support level at 1.7485. In the last days the short and medium MA is going to cross the long MA from the bottom. If we look at the historical MA signals, we could expect the GBP to rise and an ongoing movement in the trend channel.
AUD/USD
Since the beginning of June, the AUD/USD has been trading in a downward trend channel. After touching the low at 0.7710, the currency rebounded extremely and left the bearish trend formation. But the trend weakened up and the AUD resisted at the 11- month high. At the same time the ADX reached a very high level and started to decrease. We have to pay attention if the DMI+1 will cross the DMI-1 in the next days, it could indicate a short signal and a counter movement of the AUD.
