Good morning from wonderful Hamburg. Even before the Easter weekend, the market will not
cool down. Large price movements promise good trading opportunities.
Market review
A sentiment index of Australian consumer confidence rose 8.3% in April by the most in eight month as concerns about the global economy eased. But the AUD/USD fell more than 0.70 % in the morning session after a gain of 0.49 % the previous day. The incriminating factor was the weaker-than expected home-loan approvals and the rate cut to a 49-year low yesterday.
Yesterday the USD and JPY gained as falls in share prices and worries about the upcoming earning results for big US companies prompted investors to sell higher-yielding currencies. This trend continued during the Asian session, because Asian stocks extended a global equity decline. Especially the JPY was driven by economic data on Thursday. The nation posted a current-account surplus of 1.117 trillion JPY ($11 billion) in February after it reported its first deficit for 13 years the previous month. In that result the surplus fell 55.6 %, slightly better than a market forecast for a 57.1 % fall. Additionally the Bank of Japan Governor said that the economic conditions of the second largest economy have worsened since the central bank released its growth forecast in January. Nevertheless, the BoJ keeps the key overnight loan rate stable at 0.10 % after their meeting yesterday.
On Tuesday the EUR/USD came under pressure after data showed the euro zone economy recorded its deepest-ever quarterly fall in the fourth quarter of 2008. The EUR finished the day session 0.89 % lower at 1.3270 and is currently being traded at 1.3194.
NZD/JPY
Since March, the NZD/JPY has been trading in a cliffy upward trend channel. In the last days the currency pair rebounded from the high at 60.33 and we could notice a doji formation in the red circle. It also seems that the Momentum indicator stop the fall and reaches a bottom. These two signs could indicate a trend reversal. If the long term bullish trend is strong enough, the NZD could approximate to the upper limit of the duct again.
AUD/NZD
In January the AUD/NZD broke through the level at 1.2075 and traded inside an upward trend channel. In March the AUD left the formation and stopped the downward movement at the support level. In the last days the currency pair trades inside a horizontal rage and is now trading close to the resistance level at 1.2400. It is striking that the MACD is going to cross the signal line, which could be a sign for an up trend and an early breakthrough.
