Good morning from wonderful Hamburg. In Germany it’s traditionally April fool on April 1st, but we will abdicate on this. Notwithstanding, it would be fine if some of the latest bad news were only a hoax. However, we wish you a successful trading day.
Market review
The JPY strengthened versus a basket of major currencies after the Bank of Japan published a report that showed the confidence among the biggest manufacturers fell to -58 in March from -24 in December. This is a sign that the recession may deepen as companies cut spending and jobs. Japan’s Prime Minister Taro Aso will compile a further stimulus-package by mid-April to help householders. The EUR fell against the USD and JPY on speculation that the ECB will signal further steps to keep borrowing costs at a low level after it will reduce the key interest rate at a meeting tomorrow. Yesterday a report of the International Monetary Fund showed that the USD’s share of official foreign-exchange fell at the end of last year. The USD accounted 64 % of the reserve is hold by governments and central banks. At the end September 2008 the value was at about 64.4 %. In return the EUR’s share of reserves rose to 26.5 % from 25.6 %.
In Australia the retail sales recorded its first decline since five months and fell 2 % from January, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today.
USD/CHF
Since Friday, the USD/CHF has been trading in a bearish trend-channel and breached its support at 1.1447 yesterday. At todays opening we saw a Doji with a long roving, which could be a trend reversal signal assisted by a increased MA Oscillator. If the currency pair leave the bearish trend-channel it could be the attempt to cross the resistance at 1.1447 again.
EUR/CAD
Yesterday the EUR/CAD crossed its downward trend-channel sustained and rose near to its next resistance at 1.6776. But the short MA Oscillator line crossed its long-term counterparty. Normally this movement indicates a short signal. It remains to be seen if the bullish trend-channel has enough power to support the upward movement.









