Good morning from beautiful and cold Hamburg. We could look back on a turbulent volatile week. Today, we expect further record bad economic data about the European and the U.S. economy. However, we wish you a nice and refreshing weekend.
Market review
Today, the EUR fell against the USD after the German unemployment monthly data, which showed the biggest jump in four years. Additionally, the ECB President Trichet signalized a lower than expected rate cut at the policy meeting next week. The EUR fell the second day before reports that may show the euro zone inflation slowed to the least in seven years and the jobless rate climbed to a two-year high. The EUR/USD fell to 1.2894 from 1.2954 today after a decline of 2.3 % yesterday and 7.6 % this month, which is the biggest fall since October. The EUR/JPY dipped to 115.08 from 116.16 today, losing 9.13 % in this first month of the year.
The USD and the JPY climbed broadly on Thursday as bleak U.S. economic data and sharp stock market losses prompted investors to pare risky trades. Even though, the US government is planning more monetary and fiscal stimulus to boost the economy. Otherwise, the USD may weaken on expectations a U.S. government report today will show the world’s biggest economy shrank at the fastest pace since 1982. The JPY rose 2 % to 57.53 against the AUD, coming down from a high of 58.92. Today the Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 3.7 %, while the USD/JPY decreased from 89.60 to 89.41after touching a high of 90.15.
NZD/USD
Since the end of September, the NZD/USD has been trading in three downward Fibonacci fan lines. After touching the 0.60 resistance line in January, the market pulled down and broke trough the upper Fibonacci line. If the market breaks through the middle fan line, it could continue its bearish trend phase.
CHF/JPY
Since November, the CHF/JPY has been trading inside three Bollinger bands and a horizontal trend channel. In December and January the pair came down from the 87.00 resistance line and touched the lower band line and the 75.00 support level. If this horizontal trading range persists, the market could pull back again towards the middle Bollinger band.
