Good morning from beautiful and cold Hamburg. Today the FOREX market will look on Jean Claude Trichet, President of the ECB, when he announced the result of the rate meeting. A Bloomberg survey shows that the most of the respondents expected a cut of 50bps.
Market review
Such as expected the EUR suffered under the estimation that the ECB may cut its key interest rates today to its lowest historical level and declined versus a basket of major currencies. The EUR/USD traded near to a five-week low from 1.3336 at its Wednesday high to 1.3093 at its low. As well the EUR/JPY went down near to a multi-week low to 116.58 but in the late New York trading the currency pair recovered and closed at 117.46. The CHF gained against the EUR to its highest level since the 31st of October 2008. During this week Standard & Poor’s cut its sovereign credit rating for some countries and now Greece has to accept its downgrading. Yesterday the EUR/CHF fell 0.25 % to 1.4717.
The AUD/USD extended its weekly loss after a government report showed the unemployment rate rose in December to the highest level in almost two years. Also the AUD weakened against the JPY and traded close to a one-month low to 58.54 after the currency pair opened on Monday at 63.29.
After New Zealand’s house prices fell 7.4 % last year and the house sales declined as well 23 % in December from a year earlier, the NZD/USD weakened 3.7 % to 0.5389 at its low.
GBP/AUD
The long standing bearish trend in GBP/AUD could stop. The pair touched its support-line at 2.0456 on the 6th of January and recovered straight to its next resistance at 2.2157. Now it seems that the currency pair uses a new bullish trend channel to test the resistance-line. If the GBP/AUD will cross this line it maybe accelerates its bullish trend.
USD/CAD
Since the USD/CAD quit its bullish trend at the End of October, the currency pair has been trading in a trend channel between 1.1464 and 1.3017. Yesterday the price crossed sustainable the middle Bollinger Bands, which could assist to retest the resistance at the highest Bollinger Bands. Further evidence could be the Oscillator, which climbed over its zero-level and maybe influence the USD/CAD positive.
