Good morning from wonderful Hamburg and welcome to the Varengold Daily FX Report. The BOJ will hold its interest rates at 0.50 % after a meeting this week. However we wish you good luck for today and a nice weekend.

Market review

US Fed Chairman Bernanke made no comment regarding the prospect of interest rates or the US economy in the opening minutes at a central bank meeting in Wyoming. He is due to present a more detailed speech today at 14:00 GMT at the Kansas City Fed’s conference, where he is expected to touch on financial market instability. Some traders are hesitant to open new positions before hearing words from Bernanke on the credit market and financial situation. The EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.4886 as the dollar index suffered its biggest one-day drop in five months with a chart support at 75.90, and crude oil edged up and held at over $121 a barrel. Those gains gave an increase to the AUD and NZD. Gold dipped early while the USD/JPY recovered to 108.87 from a low of 108.13.

The government will try to find out a way to support the declining economy next week, said Japan’s economic minister Kaoru Yosano, and added that the government is in doubt whether to increase its budget to carry out the measure, which some fear could lead to more debt issuance. Financial Minister Ibuki stated that he does not anticipate issuing any debt to support the expected stimulus package.

USD/JPY

Since the beginning of June, the USD/JPY has been trading in a horizontal channel with a resistance at 108.49 and a support level at 104. After breaking through the resistance, the market made a semicircle move and recovered back. Should the market entry the trend channel we could expect a short term potential for decreases.

NZD/JPY

Since the end of last month, the NZDJPY has traded in a bearish trend channel. After breaking through the upper trend line, the market touched the 79 level from the beginning of August. If the market doesn’t break trough the new resistance it could continue its downward movement.