Good morning from wonderful Hamburg. It is Friday and all traders are looking for the weekend. The time is running fast and with the next month the first half of 2008 is over. In Hamburg should be nice weather at the weekend so we have good conditions to have a fine barbecue. We wish all readers of the Varengoldbank´s Daily FX Report a nice weekend.
Markets review
The freshest news from this morning is, that the German retail sales fall 1,7% in April. This loss is much more than experts expectations for a 0,6 % increase. On the yearly base the retail sales data fall 1,0 % against forecasts for a 1,9 % pace of decline. Euro is knocked lower on this messages and EUR/USD is falling about 40 pips to 1,5487.
During the week USD/JPY was jumped as much as 2,4 % to its 3-mth high of 105,88. The USD slips vs. JPY in the last night Asia trading session. Some traders said these moves came from Japanese exporters and their active USD sells. USD/JPY edges down 0,2 % on the session to 104,34.
British consumer confidence fell to -29 in May. This is the lowest level since 1990. Also separate data from pay consultant IDS shows that median UK pay deals eased about 3,2 % in 3 months to April. GBP/USD slips to a day´s low of 1,9740 down, from around 1,9760 before the data.
EUR/JPY
In EUR/JPY was a strong bullish trend from the middle of March till the middle of April. With its abortive try to break the 165 mark the market recovered after his up rally. Since the middle of May the market moves slowly in the direction of 165 again. If it would break through this mark it could come up a new strong support at this level with more bullish potential.
GBP/CHF
With the beginning of February GBP/CHF started a bearish trend with its lowest level in the middle of April. With a following recovery the market gave hope to the traders for bullish markets. A side move period started in May, which ended with the break of its upper channel line. When this break is effective the market could come back to bullish moves.
| Currency | Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivotpoint | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| EUR / USD | 1,5375 | 1,5445 | 1,5554 | 1,5624 | 1,5733 |
| USD / JPY | 104,03 | 104,76 | 105,32 | 106,05 | 106,61 |
| GBP / USD | 1,9605 | 1,9686 | 1,9752 | 1,9833 | 1,9899 |
| USD / CHF | 1,0296 | 1,0392 | 1,0457 | 1,0553 | 1,0618 |
| AUD / USD | 0,9468 | 0,9510 | 0,9577 | 0,9619 | 0,9686 |
| CAD / USD | 0,9776 | 0,9828 | 0,9875 | 0,9927 | 0,9974 |
| NZD / USD | 1,6120 | 1,6178 | 1,6238 | 1,6296 | 1,6356 |
| EUR / CAD | 1,5147 | 1,5244 | 1,5371 | 1,5468 | 1,5595 |
| EUR / CHF | 1,6192 | 1,6236 | 1,6269 | 1,6313 | 1,6346 |
| EUR / GBP | 0,7793 | 0,7820 | 0,7869 | 0,7896 | 0,7945 |
| EUR / JPY | 162,82 | 163,29 | 163,76 | 164,23 | 164,70 |
| GBP / CHF | 2,0428 | 2,0581 | 2,0673 | 2,0826 | 2,0918 |
| GBP / JPY | 205,92 | 207,29 | 208,12 | 209,49 | 210,32 |
| Date | Time (GMT) | Economic Indicator | Last |
| 30.05.2008 | 09:00 | EZ Unemployment rate | 7,1 |
| 30.05.2008 | 09:00 | EZ Inflation, flash yy | 3,3 |
| 30.05.2008 | 12:30 | CAGDP qq Q1 | 0,2 |
| 30.05.2008 | 12:30 | USPersonal income | 0,3 |
| 30.05.2008 | 12:30 | USPCE price index mm | 0,30 |
| 30.05.2008 | 12:30 | USConsumption, adjusted | 0,40 |
| 30.05.2008 | 14:30 | USECRI weekly annualized | -6,6 |
