Good morning from again sunny Hamburg. It is Thursday and the week is in his end phase. In our offices Thursday is called “small Friday” because the weekend is coming. Today we still have some interesting economic data in euro zone. Let´s have a look what the day has prepared for us.

Markets review

JPY fell broadly on Wednesday as a benign US consumer inflation report for April raised investors´ appetite for risk and was seen giving the Federal reserve bank flexibility to deal with an economic downturn. The slower increase in consumer price index caused traders to sell the dollar. USD/JPY was up 0,3 % at 105,03 late in New York. EUR/JPY was also up 0,3 % at 162,45.

NZD/USD fell on a 4-month low of 0,7554 after NZ Q1 retail sales data fell by more than expected 1,2 % vs Q4. Some market expectations had been for a fall of 0,3 %. When this news came out market was around 0,7605. So there was a loss of a half US cent in a short time frame.

In EUR/USD was reached a session high at 1,5514 this morning. This move was caused by German GDP. It rose 1,5 % in Q1 and so it topped forecasts around 0,7 % increase. The annual pace of growth accelerates to 3,4 % from 1,6 % in Q4 2007. Germany’s Stats Office says the economy remained robust despite mounting headwinds, and that Q1 growth was powered by both domestic demand and exporters.

Technical analysis

EUR/GBP

The strong up trend in EUR/GBP, which started at the beginning of February, stopped abrupt at the resistance level at 0,8099. The afterwards drop down touched once the support line at 0,7762 and rebounded from it. Attention should be paid if it will cross the resistance with further long or rebound again with further short potential.

Chart 1

USD/CAD

During April the USD/CAD trades in a horizontal trend channel. Also in May the resistance at 1,0199 endures and the USD came close to the support level at 1,000. Yesterday it crossed this physiological important level but it recovered and came back in the former range. Should it quotes a second time under the level could linger a short trend.

Chart 2


Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels
Currency Support 2 Support 1 Pivotpoint Resistance 1 Resistance 2
EUR / USD 1,5360 1,5417 1,5452 1,5509 1,5544
USD / JPY 104,12 104,58 105,01 105,47 105,90
GBP / USD 1,9324 1,9394 1,9434 1,9504 1,9544
USD / CHF 1,0461 1,0502 1,0551 1,0592 1,0641
AUD / USD 0,9230 0,9285 0,9355 0,9410 0,9480
CAD / USD 0,9912 0,9971 1,0019 1,0078 1,0126
NZD / USD 0,7557 0,7581 0,7613 0,7637 0,7669
EUR / AUD 1,6339 1,6451 1,6512 1,6624 1,6685
EUR / CAD 1,5311 1,5415 1,5479 1,5583 1,5647
EUR / CHF 1,6232 1,6276 1,6307 1,6351 1,6382
EUR / GBP 0,7901 0,7925 0,7946 0,7970 0,7991
EUR / JPY 161,14 161,86 162,40 163,12 163,66
GBP / CHF 2,0381 2,0452 2,0515 2,0586 2,0649
GBP / JPY 202,66 203,59 204,28 205,21 205,90

Daily Calendar & Key FX Events
Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last
15.05.2008 09:00 EZ GDP flash estimate qq Q1 0,40
15.05.2008 09:00 EZ Infl ex food & energy mm 0,90
15.05.2008 09:00 EZ inflation, final yy 3,60
15.05.2008 12:30 US jobless contin claims 3.020
15.05.2008 12:30 CA Manufacturing sales 1,6
15.05.2008 13:15 US Industrial output mm 0,30
15.05.2008 17:00 USNAHB housing market index 20