Good morning from wonderful Hamburg and welcome to Varengold’s Daily FX Report. We have got interesting data this week starting with the ISM on Tuesday via the speech of Bernanke on Wednesday to the US unemployment rate on Friday. We wish you a tot of profits in your positions.
Markets review
The USD rose against the JPY in choppy trading as demand from Japanese importers and institutional investors offset selling from exports on the last day of Japan’s business year. The USD climbed also 0,26 % against a basket of currencies.
The NZD fell 0,4 % to 0,7920 USD after business sentiment caused by building data pointing to a rapidly slowing economy and investors wariness about risky investment positions. Another reason could be the 17 years low of the New Zealand business confidence. The National Bank published New Zealand’s monthly business outlook. 6,4 % of companies expect their own business to deteriorate in the next 12 months.
The AUD edges also down. Against the USD the AUD lost 0,1% down to 0,9166 as risk aversion prompts investors to bail out of higher yielding currencies and leveraged trades. The Australian inflation remains high at 4% in March, well above the top of RBA´s (Reserve Bank of Australia) 2 – 3 % target band.
Technical analysis
GBP/USD
The GBP trades actual a little bit under the 2 USD mark after touching the resistance at 2,02. We see the next support at near 1,97 where a good side trading range could be developed.
NZD/USD
The NZD is still in its trading range between 0,79 and 0,82 since the end of Febuary. But the side trend seems to slow down and the NZD might turning downside.
| Currency | Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivotpoint | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| EUR / USD | 1,5739 | 1,5775 | 1,5795 | 1,5831 | 1,5851 |
| USD / JPY | 97,95 | 98,43 | 99,31 | 99,79 | 100,67 |
| GBP / USD | 1,9851 | 1,9907 | 1,9943 | 1,9999 | 2,0035 |
| USD / CHF | 0,9888 | 0,9908 | 0,9950 | 0,9970 | 1,0012 |
| AUD / USD | 0,9119 | 0,9141 | 0,9161 | 0,9183 | 0,9203 |
| USD / CAD | 1,0203 | 1,0212 | 1,0224 | 1,0233 | 1,0245 |
| NZD / USD | 0,7874 | 0,7914 | 0,7934 | 0,7974 | 0,7994 |
| EUR / AUD | 1,7188 | 1,7218 | 1,7214 | 1,7270 | 1,7292 |
| EUR / CAD | 1,6103 | 1,6133 | 1,6149 | 1,6179 | 1,6195 |
| EUR / CHF | 1,5642 | 1,5671 | 1,5714 | 1,5743 | 1,5786 |
| EUR / GBP | 0,7884 | 0,7902 | 0,7917 | 0,7935 | 0,7950 |
| EUR / JPY | 154,80 | 155,60 | 156,86 | 157,66 | 158,92 |
| GBP / CHF | 1,9714 | 1,9764 | 1,9848 | 1,9898 | 1,9982 |
| GBP / JPY | 195,01 | 196,29 | 198,18 | 199,46 | 201,35 |
| Date | Time (GMT) | Economic Indicator | Last |
| 31.03.2008 | 08:00 | EZ Money - Private loans | 11,1 |
| 31.03.2008 | 08:00 | EZ Money-M3 annual grwth | 11,5 |
| 31.03.2008 | 09:00 | EZ Business climate | 0,72 |
| 31.03.2008 | 09:00 | EZ Economic sentiment | 100,1 |
| 31.03.2008 | 09:00 | EZ Inflation, flash yy | 3,3 |
| 31.03.2008 | 09:00 | IT CPI (EU norm) prelim mm | 0,1 |
| 31.03.2008 | 13:00 | US New York NAPM index | 427,7 |
