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Daily FX Report
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The oil price through the $100 level
Mon, Sep 15 2008, 09:14 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team
Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG
Good morning from Hamburg and welcome to the next week. Normally the oil price should grow up in the hurricane season but now we got the other way around. In those times we lose the faith in the rules of the market. The oil price took the other direction and broke through the $100 level. With the high correlation to the EUR we can expect some more surprises in the currencies.
Market review
The USD fell on Friday, posting its worst one-day decline against the EUR in six month. The uncertainty about the future of the troubled investment bank Lehman Brothers and the second straight month of decline in retail sale data’s pressures the currency. Worries about Washington Mutual Inc also added a selling pressure on the USD after the largest US saving and loan institution projected further write downs. That’s why the EUR/USD increased 1.3 % at 1.4212., The USD rose 0.7 % to 107.87 against the JPY, supported by a modest rebound in US stocks. The EUR/JPY jumped 2.0 % and bounced back from a two-year low of 147.47 on Thursday. It was the best one-day gain for the EUR in a year against the JPY.
The GBP posted its biggest gain versus the USD on Friday since the 1st September in 2005. With an increase of 2.5 % it could rise back to 1.8110. The GBP could increase also against other majors. So it rose 2.2 % against the JPY, 1.5 % against the CHF and 0.6 % against the strong EUR.
The USD/MXN firmed on Friday after unexpected weak US consumer spending data which led investors to bet that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates further to prop up the economy in the United States. The same trend was visible in the CAD. It rose on Friday 1.5 % and marked its highest increase in three weeks.
EUR/JPY
The EUR lost in August and September more than 13 percent versus the JPY. This was the biggest realized loss in more than 10 Years. Last weeks development with two Dojis with an adjoining spike might be a sign for a trend turnaround. If the impulse is strong enough, we will expect a recovery phase.
USD/CHF
In the USD/CHF we can see the same movement, but on the other side. After the big comeback of the USD since July, the CHF became stronger and the currency pair turned with a gap today downward. If the pair breaks through the support level at 1.11, we will estimate a further decrease.
Published on Mon, Sep 15 2008, 09:25 GMT
Archive
- The USD/JPY trades near flat of around 88.82 after opening at 88.84
Published On Mon, Nov 23 2009, 10:10 GMT - Investors and economists don't expect an interest rate change by the Federal Reserve
Published On Fri, Nov 20 2009, 10:32 GMT - The EUR fell also against the JPY as it reached the low at 132.80
Published On Thu, Nov 19 2009, 10:13 GMT - During November, the GBPUSD has been moving along the Andrws' Pitchfork
Published On Wed, Nov 18 2009, 10:01 GMT - The USD/CAD has established a support level of around 1.0430
Published On Tue, Nov 17 2009, 10:27 GMT
Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG
| Große Elbstraße 27, 22767 Hamburg
http://www.varengold.de/ | info@varengold.de
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
This document is issued and approved by Varengold WPH Bank AG. The document is only intended for market counterparties and intermediate customers who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on the information set out within the document. It may not be reproduced or further distributed, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Due to international laws/regulations not all financial instruments/services may be available to all clients. You should have informed yourself about and observe any such restrictions when considering a potential investment decision. This electronic communication and its contents are intended for the recipient only and may contain confidential, non public and/or privileged information. If you have received this electronic communication in error, please advise the sender immediately, and delete it from your system (if permitted by law). Varengold does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial product. This communication is for informational purposes only. Any market or other views expressed herein are those of the sender only as of the date indicated and not of Varengold. Varengold reserves the right to consider any order sent electronically as not received unless it is confirmed verbally or through other means.Related reports
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