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Daily FX Report

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Fed's Engineering

Fri, Sep 12 2008, 09:51 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team

Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG

Good morning from wonderful Hamburg. Regarding the strong Hurricane “Ike” 95% of the offshore platform were shut down. Until now it didn’t influence the price of WTI oil. Anyway we wish you a nice weekend and a successful trading at the last week-session.

Market review

The Washington Post report that US Treasury and Fed are engineering trough a consortium of private firms for a sale of Lehman Brothers, while a lot of traders became nervous about more volatile price actions before Japan’s long weekend. EUR/JPY is little down to 150.00 after touching its lowest level since Aug 2006 yesterday at 147.52. The EUR/USD is back to 1.4003 after its 1-year low at 1.3882 yesterday. The USD/JPY is nearly unchanged trading at 107.15. Against the expectations the July retail sales of New Zealand was going down 0.8%. But July actual retail sales are up 2.5% yr/yr, while the market expected a 1.9% increase. The NZD/USD is up to 0.6531 after touching its 2-year low of 0.6433 yesterday. Bad dept charges for top banks of Australia are expected to rise above A$7 billion this year, as more borrowers try to repay loans and asset values fall as the economy slows. Big banks of Australia have been mostly unscathed by the first year of the global credit crisis unlike others. But as the slump enters its second year, they advise against profits could slide on mounting credit-related losses. Anyway the AUD/USD has been trading little down with a day low of 0.8006 after touching its 13-month low at 0.7896 yesterday.

USD/JPY

As the USD/JPY began to trade out of its horizontal trend channel there was a lot of expectations for more rising movements, but now the currency pair has shown a comeback after breaking trough the 108.49 level. If the old resistance level is strong enough we could assume more short potential with a support level at 103.93.

GBP/USD

Since the middle of July the GBP/USD has been trading in a strong bearish phase with three Fibonacci support and resistance lines. There are two touches with the upper channel in August and two with the lower in September. If the market breaks trough the lower support level we might expect more bearish movements.

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Published on  Fri, Sep 12 2008, 09:55 GMT