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Fed's Engineering

Fri, Sep 12 2008, 09:51 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team

Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG


Good morning from wonderful Hamburg. Regarding the strong Hurricane “Ike” 95% of the offshore platform were shut down. Until now it didn’t influence the price of WTI oil. Anyway we wish you a nice weekend and a successful trading at the last week-session.


Market review

The Washington Post report that US Treasury and Fed are engineering trough a consortium of private firms for a sale of Lehman Brothers, while a lot of traders became nervous about more volatile price actions before Japan’s long weekend. EUR/JPY is little down to 150.00 after touching its lowest level since Aug 2006 yesterday at 147.52. The EUR/USD is back to 1.4003 after its 1-year low at 1.3882 yesterday. The USD/JPY is nearly unchanged trading at 107.15. Against the expectations the July retail sales of New Zealand was going down 0.8%. But July actual retail sales are up 2.5% yr/yr, while the market expected a 1.9% increase. The NZD/USD is up to 0.6531 after touching its 2-year low of 0.6433 yesterday. Bad dept charges for top banks of Australia are expected to rise above A$7 billion this year, as more borrowers try to repay loans and asset values fall as the economy slows. Big banks of Australia have been mostly unscathed by the first year of the global credit crisis unlike others. But as the slump enters its second year, they advise against profits could slide on mounting credit-related losses. Anyway the AUD/USD has been trading little down with a day low of 0.8006 after touching its 13-month low at 0.7896 yesterday.


USD/JPY

As the USD/JPY began to trade out of its horizontal trend channel there was a lot of expectations for more rising movements, but now the currency pair has shown a comeback after breaking trough the 108.49 level. If the old resistance level is strong enough we could assume more short potential with a support level at 103.93.


GBP/USD

Since the middle of July the GBP/USD has been trading in a strong bearish phase with three Fibonacci support and resistance lines. There are two touches with the upper channel in August and two with the lower in September. If the market breaks trough the lower support level we might expect more bearish movements.


Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG  | Große Elbstraße 27, 22767 Hamburg
http://www.varengold.de/ | info@varengold.de

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

This document is issued and approved by Varengold WPH Bank AG. The document is only intended for market counterparties and intermediate customers who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on the information set out within the document. It may not be reproduced or further distributed, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Due to international laws/regulations not all financial instruments/services may be available to all clients. You should have informed yourself about and observe any such restrictions when considering a potential investment decision. This electronic communication and its contents are intended for the recipient only and may contain confidential, non public and/or privileged information. If you have received this electronic communication in error, please advise the sender immediately, and delete it from your system (if permitted by law). Varengold does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial product. This communication is for informational purposes only. Any market or other views expressed herein are those of the sender only as of the date indicated and not of Varengold. Varengold reserves the right to consider any order sent electronically as not received unless it is confirmed verbally or through other means.

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