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The USD fell on Friday as a drop in US consumer confidence
Mon, May 19 2008, 07:45 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team
Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG
Good morning from wonderful Hamburg and welcome to Varengold’s Daily FX Report. Today the newstrader could switch of the alarm and roll over to the other bed side. In Canada there is market holiday and the empty news calendar let expect a calm trading day.
Markets review
The USD fell on Friday as a drop in US consumer confidence raised concerns about an economic downturn in the second quarter. It was the lowest level since 1980. This development trimmed the chances the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. Although better than expected housing starts in April injected a positive tone into a fragile US economy the EUR/USD raised 0,95% at 1,5589.
Because of the weak of the US data the AUD climbed to a 24-year peak around 0,9570 earlier in the day. Firm commodity prices and higher regional stock markets offer support to the AUD. Additionally, Australia’s international merchandise imports raised from AUD 16.767 billion in March to AUD 17.458 in April.
This week traders put the focus on US and euro zone data, including a reading on US producer prices and the German ZEW institute economic sentiment index due on Tuesday. The Ifo economic index of German business sentiment due on Wednesday will be another important milestone. Withal the market expects that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates stabile at 0,50% at a two-day policy meeting that ends on Tuesday.
Technical analysis
GBP/USD
The down trend line in GBP/USD seems to be over. After touching the strong support level at 1,9354 the GBP could get new long power. At the end of the week it crossed even through the blue trend line. This development could be a sign for a trend change and let expect a recovery phase.
GBP/AUD
Since March the GBP/AUD trades in a down trend channel. The second cross through the support level at 2,1002 gave the currency pair a strong down push. This continuation made it reaching an all time low at 2,0459. The whole development could let expect an ongoing of trend channel.
| Currency | Support 2 | Support 1 | Pivotpoint | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| EUR / USD | 1,5372 | 1,5473 | 1,5537 | 1,5638 | 1,5702 |
| USD / JPY | 102,62 | 103,33 | 104,20 | 104,91 | 105,78 |
| GBP / USD | 1,9373 | 1,9468 | 1,9533 | 1,9628 | 1,9693 |
| USD / CHF | 1,0339 | 1,0407 | 1,0497 | 1,0565 | 1,0655 |
| AUD / USD | 0,9331 | 0,9441 | 0,9500 | 0,9610 | 0,9669 |
| CAD / USD | 0,9905 | 0,9948 | 0,9984 | 1,0027 | 1,0063 |
| NZD / USD | 0,7570 | 0,7655 | 0,7699 | 0,7784 | 0,7828 |
| EUR / AUD | 1,6156 | 1,6231 | 1,6338 | 1,6413 | 1,6520 |
| EUR / CAD | 1,5322 | 1,5434 | 1,5517 | 1,5629 | 1,5712 |
| EUR / CHF | 1,6215 | 1,6267 | 1,6319 | 1,6371 | 1,6423 |
| EUR / GBP | 0,7902 | 0,7931 | 0,7954 | 0,7983 | 0,8006 |
| EUR / JPY | 160,70 | 161,39 | 161,94 | 162,63 | 163,18 |
| GBP / CHF | 2,0320 | 2,0408 | 2,0499 | 2,0587 | 2,0678 |
| GBP / JPY | 201,74 | 202,78 | 203,59 | 204,63 | 205,44 |
| Date | Time (GMT) | Economic Indicator | Last |
| 19.05.2008 | 14:00 | US Lead indicators: change | 0,10 |
| 19.05.2008 2 | 3:50 | JP Tertiary sector index mm | -1,7 |
| 19.05.2008 | |||
| 19.05.2008 | |||
| 19.05.2008 | |||
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| 19.05.2008 |
Published on Mon, May 19 2008, 08:12 GMT
Archive
- The GBP dropped to the lowest level against the USD in almost 5 years
Published On Fri, Oct 10 2008, 08:22 GMT - Central banks around the globe cutting interest rates to stabilize the world wide economy
Published On Thu, Oct 9 2008, 09:21 GMT - The financial crisis has reached the economy of Germany
Published On Wed, Oct 8 2008, 12:21 GMT - Japan's Nikkei Stock falls over 5% to a 5-year low under 10,000
Published On Tue, Oct 7 2008, 09:23 GMT - Analysts expect that the BoE cut rates to 4.75%
Published On Mon, Oct 6 2008, 08:51 GMT
Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG
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