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The AUD rose 0,4% to 0,9430 USD and rebound the previous day's losses

Fri, May 16 2008, 08:16 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team

Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG


Good morning to the world of FX Traders. Yes we know you can’t read it but it is sunny again in the City at the Elbe and after the work we can follow our second favourite activity after Forex trading, sitting in a park and watching all the beautiful people.

Markets review

The AUD rose 0,4% to 0,9430 USD and rebound the previous day’s losses, as higher stock markets keep alive demand for carry trades and high yielding currencies. The Aussi rose on a high at 0,9443 after stops were triggered around 0,9420. The AUD/JPY climbs 0,3% to 98,65.

The NZD edges up 0,1% on the day at 0,7633 USD, and staying well above a 4mth low of 0,7537 that was hit last day as investors snap up NZD on a weaker USD and increasing risk appetite. Another reason for the tumbled NZD yesterday were further expectations about a earlier interest rate cut of the RBNZ caused by weak Q1 retail sales

The USD struggles to sustain gains versus JPY near the 2mth high as weak data cast doubts about US growth the JPY slips 0,1% at 104,59. The EUR backed by solid Q1 growth data in Germany and France and edges up 0,2% to 1,5480. The GBP is still pressured with EUR heading backed up towards 80 pence level as investors gloom on a slowing down of the UK economy.

Technical analysis

AUD/JPY

In spite of the strong up trend since the middle of March the AUD/JPY stopped the positive trend at the resistance line. The rebound from the 100,00 level gave the currency a negative impulse and let it break through the trend line. In the last trading days we could noticed a recovery, a good sign that the AUD could come close to the resistance a second time.

Chart 1

NZD/USD

Since the beginning of March the NZD/USD trades in a down trend channel. We could see a choppy movement with a general down direction. The repeated cross through the 0,7800 level gave the kiwi an intensive push and let it trade at the bottom trend line of the channel. It could follow a recovery and another jag with trading potential.

Chart 2


Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels
Currency Support 2 Support 1 Pivotpoint Resistance 1 Resistance 2
EUR / USD 1,5340 1,5392 1,5469 1,5521 1,5598
USD / JPY 103,90 104,29 104,79 105,18 105,68
GBP / USD 1,9360 1,9418 1,9459 1,9517 1,9558
USD / CHF 1,0436 1,0502 1,0547 1,0613 1,0658
AUD / USD 0,9237 0,9316 0,9369 0,9448 0,9501
CAD / USD 0,9944 0,9969 1,0015 1,0040 1,0086
NZD / USD 0,7493 0,7561 0,7601 0,7669 0,7709
EUR / AUD 1,6262 1,6344 1,6489 1,6571 1,6716
EUR / CAD 1,5327 1,5380 1,5481 1,5534 1,5635
EUR / CHF 1,6251 1,6282 1,6317 1,6348 1,6383
EUR / GBP 0,7883 0,7905 0,7947 0,7969 0,8011
EUR / JPY 160,58 161,10 162,03 162,55 163,48
GBP / CHF 2,0330 2,0456 2,0525 2,0651 2,0720
GBP / JPY 202,10 203,00 203,91 204,81 205,72

Daily Calendar & Key FX Events
Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last
16.05.2008 07:15 CH Retail sales 7,60
16.05.2008 09:00 EZ Eurostat trade, EUR 0,8
16.05.2008 12:30 USHousing starts: number 0,947
16.05.2008 12:30 USBuilding permits: number 0,928
16.05.2008 13:55 USU.Mich sentiment prel 62,6
16.05.2008 13:55 USU.Mich conditions prel 77,0
16.05.2008 14:30 USECRI weekly annualized -8.0

Published on  Fri, May 16 2008, 08:37 GMT


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