Daily FX Report

House prices in Britain suffer the sharpest fall since 30 years in April

Tue, May 13 2008, 08:35 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team

Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG


Good morning from wonderful sunny and warm Hamburg. Today is the first day after a long weekend here in Germany so relax and enjoy your report for Tuesday

Markets review

A busy US data calendar this week includes reports on retail sales, CPI, manufacturing and consumer sentiment. It will be a big test of whether USD´s more positive tone is rooted in a tangible improvement in the US outlook or is simply a reaction to gloomier news from Euro zone and interim pullbacks in the price of oil. But mixed signals from recent US data and ECB´s unambiguous stance of inflation mean USD probably will need more than just better expected economic reports this week.

House prices in Britain suffer the sharpest fall since 30 years in April, the Royal institute of Chartered Surveyors reports, providing another sign of slowing growth. Surveyors house price balance falls to -95,1 in three month to April , the lowest in the survey history since 1987.

The USD/JPY selling last week after AIG/Citi reports stirred risk aversion has left the market with deep short positions, with an risk that short covering triggers stops around JPY 104,20/30. But USD/JPY also faces Japanese exporters selling in the upper JPY 104 zone while importers show little interest to buy after having seen JPY at 102.

Technical analysis

AUD/USD

Since the beginning of the year there is a positive long-dated up development in the AUD/USD. After a short period with falling prices in March they followed a recovery along a cliffier trend channel. Despite of a lot tops the currency pair couldn’t cross the strong resistance at 0,9501. The pointed triangle let expect a new trend impulse if it will cross the trend line or the resistance level.

Chart 1

EUR/CHF

Since the middle of March the EUR/CHF trades on a positive trend line. The cross through the resistance gave an accessorily push and changed the level to a support at 1,6204. The broke through in the last week was only for a short time. The fast recovery is a confirmation of the support and could let expect a continuation of the long trend.

Chart 2


Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels
Currency Support 2 Support 1 Pivotpoint Resistance 1 Resistance 2
EUR / USD 1,5287 1,5417 1,5493 1,5623 1,5699
USD / JPY 101,96 102,89 103,45 104,35 104,94
GBP / USD 1,9358 1,9467 1,9549 1,9658 1,9740
USD / CHF 1,0343 1,0389 1,0450 1,0496 1,0557
AUD / USD 0,9310 0,9392 0,9435 0,9517 0,9560
CAD / USD 0,9974 1,0012 1,0059 1,0097 1,0144
NZD / USD 0,7585 0,7646 0,7687 0,7748 0,7789
EUR / AUD 1,6264 1,6332 1,6403 1,6471 1,6542
EUR / CAD 1,5454 1,5539 1,5583 1,5668 1,5712
EUR / CHF 1,6055 1,6141 1,6187 1,6273 1,6319
EUR / GBP 0,7845 0,7893 0,7924 0,7972 0,8003
EUR / JPY 157,55 159,42 160,48 162,35 163,41
GBP / CHF 2,0175 2,0302 2,0434 2,0561 2,0693
GBP / JPY 198,77 200,95 202,34 204,52 205,91

Daily Calendar & Key FX Events
Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last
13.05.2008 08:30 GB CPI M/M 0,40
13.05.2008 08:30 GB RPI-X (retai prices) mm 0,50
13.05.2008 12:30 USExport prices 1,50
13.05.2008 12:30 USImport prices 2,80
13.05.2008 12:30 USRetail sales mm 0,20
13.05.2008 14:00 USBusiness Inventories 0,60
13.05.2008 14:00 USIBD economic optimism 39,2

Published on  Tue, May 13 2008, 08:52 GMT

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