Daily FX Report

Focus on Europe with ECB and BoE policy meetings

Mon, May 5 2008, 09:08 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team

Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG


Markets review

On Friday the USD scaled two-month highs against the JPY and a basket of currencies after an unexpectedly small drop in US payrolls. News that the struggling economy shed only 20.000 jobs in April and the jobless rate dipped to 5,0% from 5,1% in March supported views that the Federal Reserve would stop further interest rate cuts because economic data and financial markets did not deteriorate further. The EUR/USD fell to 1,5362, the lowest level since March 24 and traded back up at 1,5425 at midday, down 0,3% on the day. For the week the EUR lost 1,3% against the USD, declining the second week in row.

The AUD extends gains after a private sector survey shows inflation accelerating, raising risk that the next interest rate move by RBA could be a hike rather than a cut. AUD/USD was at 0,9390 up from 0,9315 late on Friday.

Bank of Canada has not joined other central banks in injecting cash into markets to boost liquidity because the country’s funding markets are in better shape than elsewhere, the spokeswoman said on Friday. The USD/CAD lost 0,16% and quotes at 1,0180.


Technical analysis

USD/CHF
After the side movement during middle of March until middle of April with a support at 0,9855 and a resistance at 1,0217 the market broke through the resistance at the end of April. Since this cross we could cognize a development of a strong up trend channel.

Daily Chart



USD/JPY
With beginning of the new year the USD/JPY changed its direction and came down from over 110,00 to less than 100,00. After touching the low the currency pair started a recovery. This constant up movement endures for more than one and a half month.

Daily Chart

Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels
Currency Support 2 Support 1 Pivotpoint Resistance 1 Resistance 2
EUR / USD 1,5288 1,5358 1,5429 1,5499 1,5570
USD / JPY 103,74 104,54 105,12 105,92 106,50
GBP / USD 1,9576 1,9643 1,9770 1,9837 1,9964
USD / CHF 1,0402 1,0489 1,0547 1,0634 1,0692
AUD / USD 0,9228 0,9293 0,9339 0,9404 0,9450
CAD / USD 1,0097 1,0146 1,0193 1,0242 1,0289
NZD / USD 0,7708 0,7756 0,7799 0,7847 0,7890
EUR / AUD 1,6290 1,6389 1,6520 1,6619 1,6750
EUR / CAD 1,5543 1,5634 1,5722 1,5813 1,5901
EUR / CHF 1,6151 1,6230 1,6275 1,6354 1,6399
EUR / GBP 0,7732 0,7776 0,7807 0,7851 0,7882
EUR / JPY 160,96 161,75162,18 162,97 163,40
GBP / CHF 2,0531 2,0674 2,0818 2,0961 2,1105
GBP / JPY 204,76 206,17 207,59 209,00 210,42

Daily Calendar & Key FX Events
Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last
05.05.2008 09:30 EZ Sentix Index 4,10
05.05.2008 15:00 USISM Non mfg PMI 49,6
05.05.2008 15:00 USISM Non-mfg Business Act 52,2

Published on  Mon, May 5 2008, 09:20 GMT

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http://www.varengold.de/ | info@varengold.de

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