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This week starting with the ISM on Tuesday via the speech of Bernanke on Wednesday to the US unemployment rate on Friday

Mon, Mar 31 2008, 08:32 GMT
by Varengold Bank Research Team

Varengold Wertpapierhandelsbank AG


Good morning from wonderful Hamburg and welcome to Varengold’s Daily FX Report. We have got interesting data this week starting with the ISM on Tuesday via the speech of Bernanke on Wednesday to the US unemployment rate on Friday. We wish you a tot of profits in your positions.

Markets review

The USD rose against the JPY in choppy trading as demand from Japanese importers and institutional investors offset selling from exports on the last day of Japan’s business year. The USD climbed also 0,26 % against a basket of currencies.

The NZD fell 0,4 % to 0,7920 USD after business sentiment caused by building data pointing to a rapidly slowing economy and investors wariness about risky investment positions. Another reason could be the 17 years low of the New Zealand business confidence. The National Bank published New Zealand’s monthly business outlook. 6,4 % of companies expect their own business to deteriorate in the next 12 months.

The AUD edges also down. Against the USD the AUD lost 0,1% down to 0,9166 as risk aversion prompts investors to bail out of higher yielding currencies and leveraged trades. The Australian inflation remains high at 4% in March, well above the top of RBA´s (Reserve Bank of Australia) 2 – 3 % target band.

Technical analysis

GBP/USD

The GBP trades actual a little bit under the 2 USD mark after touching the resistance at 2,02. We see the next support at near 1,97 where a good side trading range could be developed.

Chart 1

NZD/USD

The NZD is still in its trading range between 0,79 and 0,82 since the end of Febuary. But the side trend seems to slow down and the NZD might turning downside.

Chart 2



Pivot Points - Daily FX Support and Resistance Levels
Currency Support 2 Support 1 Pivotpoint Resistance 1 Resistance 2
EUR / USD 1,5739 1,5775 1,5795 1,5831 1,5851
USD / JPY 97,95 98,43 99,31 99,79 100,67
GBP / USD 1,9851 1,9907 1,9943 1,9999 2,0035
USD / CHF 0,9888 0,9908 0,9950 0,9970 1,0012
AUD / USD 0,9119 0,9141 0,9161 0,9183 0,9203
USD / CAD 1,0203 1,0212 1,0224 1,0233 1,0245
NZD / USD 0,7874 0,7914 0,7934 0,7974 0,7994
EUR / AUD 1,7188 1,7218 1,7214 1,7270 1,7292
EUR / CAD 1,6103 1,6133 1,6149 1,6179 1,6195
EUR / CHF 1,5642 1,5671 1,5714 1,5743 1,5786
EUR / GBP 0,7884 0,7902 0,7917 0,7935 0,7950
EUR / JPY 154,80 155,60 156,86 157,66 158,92
GBP / CHF 1,9714 1,9764 1,9848 1,9898 1,9982
GBP / JPY 195,01 196,29 198,18 199,46 201,35

Daily Calendar & Key FX Events
Date Time (GMT) Economic Indicator Last
31.03.2008 08:00 EZ Money - Private loans 11,1
31.03.2008 08:00 EZ Money-M3 annual grwth 11,5
31.03.2008 09:00 EZ Business climate 0,72
31.03.2008 09:00 EZ Economic sentiment 100,1
31.03.2008 09:00 EZ Inflation, flash yy 3,3
31.03.2008 09:00 IT CPI (EU norm) prelim mm 0,1
31.03.2008 13:00 US New York NAPM index 427,7


Archive

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http://www.varengold.de/ | info@varengold.de

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