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Currency Technical Report

Tue, Oct 28 2008, 11:18 GMT
by George Antonakos

FXGreece

Resistance: 1,2580-90/ 1,2645-50/ 1,2675-80/ 1,2710/ 1,2750-60/ 1,2800/ 1,2850/ 1,2930

Support : 1,2480-00/ 1,2430/ 1,2370/ 1,2330/ 1,2280/ 1,2210/ 1,2150/ 1,2100



Comment: Euro moved again to new lows until 1,2320 area, where our targets were set. Reactions remained within the ranges of the downtrend and we have no technical sign of reversal.
However, after yesterday’s lows, important technical support has been reached, regarding channels and wave extensions (they are clear in the daily and 4hour chart) , which give a positive sign that bulls may appear. Don’t forget that tomorrow is the interest rate decision from US and we expect a rate cut, which should be negative for the dollar.
Technically, last tops should be breached (1,2585-90) as a first sign, followed by the break of 1,2620-40 resistance in the upper part of the first short term channel (hourly chart). A clear break of these resistance levels gives hope for the move resumption to 1,3000, with interim resistance at 1,2760.
If 1,2600 area cannot be breached or we see a false break and a quick retracement, it would indicate that the downtrend is still strong and any upward expectations will be canceled.
A move to new lows could lead to 1,2200, or even 1,2070-00. For now, our upward expectations will be confirmed after a clear break of the first resistance levels.





STRATEGY
Buy: We keep our positions small and be very cautious at current levels or at retracements towards 1,2450, with stops below 1,2390. Alternatively, we can buy at a break of 1,2590, with target at 1,2670-80 or 1,2740-50.

Sell : We will allow a small reaction today before we try sell orders. First level that offers sell opportunities is 1,2670-80 area. Stops could be set above 1,2715 or adding more positions at 1,2750-60, with stops above 1,2810. A possible false break of the resistance and quick retracement would be followed with new sell orders, as false breaks have given good sell signs during this decline…

Published on  Tue, Oct 28 2008, 11:23 GMT