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Currency Technical Report

Wed, Oct 8 2008, 10:11 GMT
by George Antonakos

FXGreece

EUR/USD

Reistance: 1,3600/ 1,3640-50/ 1,3690/ 1,3740/ 1,3810/ 1,3855/ 1,3900
Support : 1,3540/ 1,3510/ 1,3440-50/ 1,3400/ 1,3370/ 1,3330

Comment : Euro reacted after its sharp decline in the beginning of the week, which is still within the ranges of the downtrend that is formed. First important long-term support, according to price movements and technical signs in the long-term charts, is found at 1,3330-70, as we have mentioned in our previous analysis and is also shown in the monthly chart below.
If this area cannot limit dollar’s rally, then a reach of 1,3000-50 or 1,2850-00 would even be possible, where our next target area is found.
A base formation and a reaction from current levels is possible, as the price is in an oversold area with clear buy signs from the oscillators in the 4hour chart.
We will wait for the first trend reversal signs and the first sign of the buyers appearance in the hourly chart. The move above yesterday tops and its turn into a support would be a good sign, which indicates the area of 1,3900-10 as first target, followed by the area of 1,4000.
The move today should be held above 1,3510-15 in terms of our upward expectations... In case of a break we will set up our “hopes” for euro at 1,3300-70 area...



TRADING EUR/USD
SWING TRADING : Nobody has unlimited equity in order to buy continuously, and the decline below 1,3750 canceled our upward scenario. Euro’s price is too low for sell positions and not reliable, despite the big decline, for buy positions unless there is much equity and a long term strategy that could hold out to a possible move to the extreme levels of 1,2900-3000 (which are considered as extreme unless we see a reaction first). We are in an oversold situation and we could only try buy orders with the intention to build positions, as we mentioned above. A break of previous highs could be used for adding positions, with basic target at 1,4000-20...
INTRADAY TRADING : An attempt of a base formation is possible. We try buy orders at 1,3520-50, with stops below 1,3500 and targets at 1,3680-00 area. A break of 1,3750, will be used for small buy orders (stop below 1,3680) with target at 1,3900-20. A possible move until these levels, will be used for sell positions...
Sell orders could also be tried in a clear break of 1,3510, with target at 1,3440 or even at a move until 1,3330-70 targets.





GBP/USD

Resistance :1,7530/ 1,7585/ 1,7630/ 1,7660/ 1,7710/ 1,7750/ 1,7785/ 1,7730-40
Support : 1,7420-30/ 1,7380/ 1,7330/ 1,7300/ 1,7270/ 1,7230/ 1,7170…

Comment : The double bottom scenario is still valid and a break of 1,7650 area today would give strength signs. A possible break should allow a move at least 200 pips higher.
A downward break of 1,7400-20, would be a negative sign that should turn the consolidation to a base for the decline resumption. The area of 1,7300 would be tested first, but a resumption to 1,7100-50 , where an important long term support is found, is also possible...Let’s not forget the interest rate decision tomorrow...


TRADING GBP/USD : A consolidation is formed and positions could be tried at its ranges. Sell positions could be tried at 1,7630-50 and buy orders at 1,7430 area. A possible break of the ranges will be used for buy and sell positions accordingly. (We buy above 1,7650 for 1,7830 area and we sell below 1,7420 for 1,7230-50...)






USD/JPY

• fxgreece_currency Technical Report_081008

Published on  Wed, Oct 8 2008, 10:20 GMT