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Currency Technical Report
Mon, Sep 1 2008, 09:15 GMT
by George Antonakos
EUR/USD
Resistance: 1,4640/ 1,4670/ 1,4700-10/ 1,4745-50/ 1,4770/ 1,4810
Support : 1,4700-10/ 1,4760-70/ 1,4630/ 1,4600/ 1,4570
Comment : Many important news releases are expected this week as euro is moving below 1.4650-70 support. This move will bring lower targets back in the game, but we should be cautious regarding the formation of a base, we had mentioned in our previous analysis. The ranges for the reversal of the short term decline are set at 1,4760-70 and first important resistance is found at 1,4710-20 area today. A move above 1,4710-20 and stabilization at those levels, combined with an upward break of 1,4770, would be signs of bull strength.
If euro fails to breach the area of 1,4700 and the move is limited below 1,4600, next target will be at 1,4560-70, at the previous lows, and basic target from the double top formation will be at 1,4500-30 area. The area of 1,4400 (+-30) will be the next area where we will focus technically, as important long term support (clear in the weekly chart- MA, 38.2% retracement from 2005 lows, trend line that links previous lows, last base before the rise to 1.6000) is found at this level and it will not be easily breached...
A downward break of 1,4300 will cancel euros long term uptrend.
TRADING EUR/USD
SWING TRADING : A move below 1.4450 until 1.4370-00 is still considered possible, and buy opportunities will emerge, as it is an important support level and euros basic trend would be reversed after a confirmation of 1.5000 resistance
We will use any downward move to build buy positions (per 50/70 pips), setting our stops below 1.4300.
INTRADAY TRADING : For short term positions, the best strategy would be sell at the reactions towards 1.4700-10, with stops 1,4740 and target at a retracement to 1,4630-40.. Next area that offers good sell opportunities is found at 1,4760-70
A possible decline to 1,4530-50 will be used for buy positions with stops below 1.4500...
GBP/USD
Resistance :1,8070-80/ 1,8130-40/ 1,8190/ 1,8230-40
Support : 1,8000-10/ 1,7970/ 1,7950/ 1,7920/ 1,7890-00
Comment : The pounds decline continues rapidly and important support of 1,8000 is tested. From the level of 1,8030 until 1,7900-30, important support is found as you can see in the weekly chart, while next important target regarding the longer term is found at 1,7650 (+-40). The lower part of the upward channel (weekly chart) is found at those levels, forming a parallel line from the tops.
Important intraday resistance is found at 1,8150-70, levels were the gap from yesterdays open will be closed, with interim resistance at 1,8070-80. The trend line that sets the decline ranges, is found at 1,8230-40, while the stabilization levels are much higher at 1,8350-00 area.
TRADING GBP/USD : The pound formed an upward reaction after 1.8000 low. We will use the first reactions for sell orders and 1,8150-70 and 1,8220-30 could offer good sell opportunities.
Short term buy positions for the gap closing should be small and have stops below 1,8000.
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
Published on Mon, Sep 1 2008, 09:22 GMT
Archive
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Published On Mon, Dec 1 2008, 11:15 GMT - Currency Technical Report
Published On Fri, Nov 28 2008, 09:05 GMT - Currency Technical Report
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