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Currency Technical Report

Mon, Jul 14 2008, 09:50 GMT
by George Antonakos

FXGreece


EUR/USD

Resistance :1,5925/ 1,5950-55/ 1,5975/ 1,6020/ 1,6050/ 1,6080
Support : 1,5675-80/ 1,5635/ 1,5580/ 1,5525

Comment: After oil reaching new all time highs, and market’s fears that US banking sector may collapse due to Freddie Mac’s and Fannie Mae’s liquidity problems, euro rallied during Friday’s US Session, within a panic environment.
The way and the time that the move was formed may have had this purpose; to cause panic and hit stops set above the technical resistance of 1.5900-10. Let’s not forget that stops above 1.5900 protect sell positions, so they are buy orders. Probably buy positions close to all time highs were important for "some people", and if this is the reason for Friday’s extensive move, it will be confirmed in the near future.



First support level for today is found at 1.5850-60, followed by 1.5780-00 and 1.5825-35 will be an interim support. A move below 1.5850 will give the first signs that Friday’s move was extensive on purpose, while below 1.5825-30, we will have many reversal signs.If the decline that started in Asia’s session does not breach the area of 1.5850-60 and bulls lead euro above 1.5930, a sideways consolidation may be formed and lead us back to previous tops.
Bears may appear in the first resistance level at 1.5950-70, followed by the area of 1.6020 and 1.6050.
A clear break of the last one would indicate that bulls dominate and 1.6500-6700 scenarios will be back in the game. The area of 1,6130 is the first target, followed by 1.6250. We will now see the week's start and the market’s intentions...

TRADING GBP/USD
SWING TRADING : The upward break of 1,5835 led us to a reduction in the positions that were opened again at 1.5910 and 1.5950-70 area, according to our basic scenario. We keep our stops above 1.6080 area. If resistance levels are breached and the move reaches new tops, we will change our view completely ...
INTRADAY TRADING : Sell positions for the short term could be tried at the retracements of 1.5940-60, with stops above yesterday’s tops. The area of 1.6050-60 could give this opportunity...
Buy positions could be tried at 1.5825-35 and 1.5795-00, with stops below 1.5780.
Support that would be difficult to be breached today should be at 1.5760 and 1.5700-10 area...



GBP/USD

Resistance :1,9850/ 1,9880/ 1,9900-10/ 1,9950
Support : 1,9810/ 1,9790-00/ 1,9750/ 1,9690

Comment : The pound profited from market’s panic and rose until the area of 1,9960-70. Resistance at 1.9850 and 1.9900 were easily breached but bulls were not able to keep their positions above these levels.
This reaction seems extensive on purpose to take advantage of the panic and hit stops.
First important support for today is found at 1.9790-9810, followed by the area of 1.9750-70. Below those levels a reversal would be confirmed and a retracement to 1.9650-00 is possible.
If support at 1.9830 holds and move continues above 1.9880, the area of 1.9920-30 may be tested again.
Next resistance is found at 1,9980-00. The area of 2,0000 is a strong resistance and will be not easily breached...


TRADING GBP/USD
SWING TRADING: Friday's upward move closed open positions at the opening price (1,9830-50), according to our scenario. We will use retracements towards 1,9930-50 and 1,9990-2,0020 for new sell positions, with stops above 2,0060. Our target will be at 1,9730-20.

INTRADAY TRADING : Sell positions could be tried at 1,9920-30 (stop 1,9970, target 1,9870). Quick sell positions could be tried at 1.9700-10 area...
Buy opportunities would emerge at 1.9790-9810 (target 1,9850 and stop 1,9770).
The area of 1.9700-10 is offered for quick buy positions...





USD/JPY




USD/CHF




Published on  Mon, Jul 14 2008, 09:52 GMT


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