EUR/USD Current price: 1.2904
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The EUR/USD did little or nothing over the past 3 days, stuck in a 100 pips range; anxiety among where the pair may go may find its first answer in the upcoming European session, with the ECB economic policy meeting. The Central Bank, is largely expected to maintain its policy unchanged but Draghi’s words may bring some light to the future of the common currency. Will the ECB President stand with a hawkish “anything it takes”, or will he the Committee is not that happy with non standard measures? Anyway, and despite the tone, is all about technical levels and where stops are today, rather than trying to understand what are on politicians minds. With 1.2880/1.2970 area dominating the week, some stops are below 1.2880 but bigger ones come around the 1.2830 area: if below, the pair may attempt to test 1.2745, 38.2% retracement of the latest bullish run and past June monthly high. To the upside, buyers will surge above 1.2970, aiming to push price towards 1.3030 first, and even near 1.3100 if the pair gathers enough momentum.
Support levels: 1.2880 1.2840 1.2800
Resistance levels: 1.2930 1.2970 1.3010
GBP/USD Current price: 1.6073
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Pound was among the bigger losers falling against the greenback to the 1.6060 area, and consolidating right above early Asia, still looking overall heavy. While the BOE will also announce its economic policy decision tomorrow, it’s expected to be a non-event, unless they surprise markets with an extension of their assets purchase program, pretty unlikely. The GBP/USD hourly chart shows price holding below a strongly bearish 20 SMA, while RSI turned flat around 30, with no aims of heading higher, and momentum also below the 100 level. In the 4 hours chart, picture turns more interesting, as the bearish momentum accelerated over the past couple of days, and technical readings point for more: if spikes find sellers defending the 1.6120/30 area, the downside will be exposed towards 1.6000. Further falls seem unlikely for this Thursday, with US NFP on Friday, and market turning thing after central banks ahead of that news.
Support levels: 1.6060 1.6010 1.5970
Resistance levels: 1.6090 1.6125 1.6150
USD/JPY Current price: 78.49
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The USD/JPY woke up from it lethargy and moved twice its average daily pips, surging to 78.57 on strong dollar demand. Japanese jawboning added to the bullish case, with the pair now resting above the 78.40 area. Hard to predict it will actually move more than 20 pips a day from now on, I’m mostly inclined for more range movements until Friday US news. In the hourly chart, indicators reached overbought levels, while price consolidates near the high; more interesting, the 100 SMA come above 200 one, first time since September 25th. If price manages to hold current levels and dollar continues advancing on risk aversion, the pair may extend towards 78.80 where next hurdle of sellers will surge. The downside seems now protected by buying interest around the 78.00/10 price zone.
Support levels: 78.40 78.10 77.80
Resistance levels: 78.80 79.05 79.30
AUD/USD: Current price: 1.0213
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The AUD/USD finally stopped the bleeding triggered by RBA two days ago, reaching a temporal floor around 1.0200; bounces from the level had been unable to extend beyond 1.0240, leaving a the bearish side exposed. With some big headlines in Australia today that include Retail Sales and Building approvals both expected to have improved, readings in line with expectation may trigger an upward corrective movement towards the 1.0300 price zone, where the pair will face strong static resistance. Disappoint readings however, will only exacerbate the bearish mood, and send the pair to test September low of 1.0160. Despite oversold, both 1 and 4 hours charts indicators maintain the negative stance, far from suggesting an upward correction at the time being.
Support levels: 1.0190 1.0160 1.0125
Resistance levels: 1.0240 1.0270 1.0300
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