EUR/USD Current price: 1.2441
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The day one of the EU summit is done, and the board has been all about risk aversion most of the past two sessions, and everything about market talks ahead of Asian opening: despite Angela Merkel canceled the post summit press conference earlier on the day, authorities are sharing with medias most of what took place today. In one hand, officials said that the summit was focused in growth and employment, and that they made a 120B euro pact to promote both. But Italy and Spain are in no rush to sign in: an Italian officer stated that they won’t sign the package unless they get a bond buying deal. News agencies are also reporting that Spain will likely lose its preferred creditor status on the ESM. And to add to it all, late US session saw an impressive come back from stocks, that erased most of their intraday loses in 20 minutes, in what many suspect was just a fat finger in the S&P futures contract. The EUR/USD fell as low as 1.2406 early European morning, to end the day right around yesterday’s one at 1.2440. The intraday recoveries, had failed to break above the 61.8% retracement of the latest bullish run from 1.2288 to 1.2745 at 1.2460 and immediate resistance. The hourly chart shows price below a bearish 20 SMA, while momentum aims higher still below its midline and far from suggesting a recovery. In the 4 hours chart indicators turned are also aiming slightly higher below their midlines, while 20 SMA stands above current price. The bears are still in control, as long as price remains capped by the 1.2460 level. Stops expected above if triggered, may see a recovery towards the 1.2500/20 price zone.
Support levels: 1.2400 1.2360 1.2330
Resistance levels: 1.2460 1.2490 1.2530
GBP/USD Current price: 1.5517
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The GBP/USD fell strongly on risk sentiment reaching 1.5484 before late US recovery favored a bounce back above the 1.5500 mark. The upside however, remains limited as the hourly chart shows price developing below a strongly bearish 20 SMA, while indicators hold in negative territory far from their midlines. In the 4 hours chart the downside is also favored, although some consolidation make take place ahead of next move: 1.5470/1.5550 are the short term risk extremes for the pair, with a break below the base pointing for a midterm continuation towards the 1.5260 area for the upcoming sessions.
Support levels: 1.5505 1.5470 1.5440
Resistance levels: 1.5520 1.5550 1.5590
USD/JPY Current price: 79.40
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The USD/JPY was little changed this Thursday, posting a fresh weekly low of 79.21, yet trading in a tight 50 pips range despite the general madness. The hourly chart shows indicators flat around their midlines, lacking direction early Asia, while price holds below 100 and 200 SMA’s. In bigger time frames, the pair lost the upward potential seen early week, with price now capped below 20 and 100 SMA’s and indicators heading slightly lower although with not enough momentum at the time being: price needs to break below the 79.20 lows to be able to extend its slide towards 78.80 strong static support.
Support levels: 79.20 78.80 78.40
Resistance levels: 79.50 79.80 80.10
AUD/USD: Current price: 1.0034
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The AUD/USD tested parity, reaching a daily low of 0.9994 from where the pair bounced above 50 pips following US indexes late spike higher. Market talks of strong buying interest around 1.0000 are still present, and will take another panic run to discourage buyers. For now, the hourly chart shows indicators bouncing higher form extreme oversold levels, yet RSI already turned south below 50, as price retreats from US session high. 20 SMA nears 200 EMA both around 1.0050 acting as immediate resistance for the short term, while the 4 hours chart shows price still above a flat 200 EMA and indicators losing bearish momentum right around their midlines. Not much definitions from the technical side, the pair will likely trade on sentiment over current Asian session, fulfilled with fundamental news coming from Japan, China and New Zealand.
Support levels: 1.0000 0.9970 0.9930
Resistance levels: 1.0050 1.0080 1.0130
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