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Currency Majors Technical Perspective

Wed, Nov 4 2009, 23:55 GMT
by Valeria Bednarik

FXstreet.com Independent Analyst Team

EUR/USD Current price: 1.4866

After FED decision to keep rates unchanged and lows for an extended period yet optimistic about economic recovery, stocks run to the upside, taking the pair to the 1.4910 area, where hourly indicators reached extreme overbought conditions. Current downside corrective movement remains above key 1.4850 area; with local shares expected to follow Wall Street, and ahead of early Europe ECB and BOE monetary policy, pair likely to remain around current levels. Clear break of the mentioned zone, could send the pair to test the 1.4800 area, where 200 EMA and 20 SMA converge to offer support. Another attempt above 1.4900, likely to sent the pair closer to 1.4925 first resistance for today, ahead of stronger 1.4970 area.

Support levels: 1.4850 1.4800 1.4770

Resistance levels:  1.4890 1.4925 1.4970

GBP/USD Current price: 1.6552

Upside rally in Pound has been again halted around 1.6600, where the pair retreated to current zone. With hourly indicators supporting further rises in the pair after the break above the daily descendant trend line coming from 1.6694, and 20 SMA with a bullish slope, pair is technically set to extend the upside rally. However, considering the possibility of an extension in QE early Europe, pair likely to remain in a tight range during current session. Under 1.6520, next support comes at the 1.6480 area; if this last gives up, pair likely to extend the fall. 

Support levels:  1.6520 1.6480 1.6420

Resistance levels:  1.6600 1.6640 1.6690

USD/JPY Current price: 90.66

Back under 91.00, pair continues having a hard time to clearly overcome the level; hourly charts indicators had turned to the downside, suggesting more falls to come in current session. If 90.50 gives up, pair can attempt a retest of 90.20 area; watch for a candle opening under 20 SMA that will support the downside bias. Also bigger time frames look bearish, so only a clear confirmation above 91.30 could change the pair bias for the next hours.

Support levels:  90.50 90.20 89.80 

Resistance levels: 91.10 91.40 91.80

USD/CHF Current price: 1.0158

Downside momentum finally breached the 1.0200 level, sending the pair to the 1.0125 area; looking a bit exhausted to the downside, above 1.0650 pair could attempt some upside correction, with next resistance around 1.0200 that has been acting as quite strong support, and should offer same strength as resistance. 4 hours charts remain strongly bearish, so as long as under mentioned 1.0200 chances are to the downside.

Support levels: 1.0125 1.0090 1.0060

Resistance levels: 1.0165 1.0200 1.0240

Published on  Wed, Nov 4 2009, 23:57 GMT