Forex Strategist
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The answers coming from the crucial moments of the market are used to set new strategies with optimal risk-return relationships. Sentiment and oscillators have easily allowed us to intercept the current rebound of EUR / USD. At this point we can find the two standard deviations of the linear regression line, but in this same point the spread between U.S. and German CDS offers a remarkable resistance and equal to -15 basis points. Let’s dwell on this.
As we can see, before the outbreak of the crisis in the Euro zone, the spread between CDS has always remained between +10 bp and -15 bp. The upper part intercepted the primary maximum, the lowest one the minimum. The rupture in area -15 bp marked the screwing of the crisis, with the American CDS who came to be 60 basis points lower than the German ones on several occasions, last time in June 2012. Now the market is back to -15 bp and lingers on EUR / USD, waiting for more confirmations from Europe.
In conclusion we can say that a return over - 15 bp would bring back the German risk in line with the U.S., but also allow Euro to reverse its bearish trend started in the first months of 2011 (Graphic source: Bloomberg).
As we can see, before the outbreak of the crisis in the Euro zone, the spread between CDS has always remained between +10 bp and -15 bp. The upper part intercepted the primary maximum, the lowest one the minimum. The rupture in area -15 bp marked the screwing of the crisis, with the American CDS who came to be 60 basis points lower than the German ones on several occasions, last time in June 2012. Now the market is back to -15 bp and lingers on EUR / USD, waiting for more confirmations from Europe.
In conclusion we can say that a return over - 15 bp would bring back the German risk in line with the U.S., but also allow Euro to reverse its bearish trend started in the first months of 2011 (Graphic source: Bloomberg).
