It seems that both the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand one are ready for a new showing of strength of the oceanic currencies, or weakness of the dollar when viewed from the opposite side. Obviously with the premise that this analysis has to exclude a scenario of financial meltdown as in 2008, the ultimate technical indicator we use to evaluate the best timing of entry of long NzdUsd, that is the difference between spot price and average at 200 days, has reached an optimal levels. As we can see by the vertical bars dotted black, every time the difference between spot and the 200 day average drops below the threshold of -5%, NzdUsd finds a minimum primary market intended to last a few months. In late May again this event has occurred and promptly NzdUsd has reached a bottom in area 0.74 and has then bounced at the end of last week. At this point we can expect a bit of quietness on the commodity currencies and NzdUsd should converge again to area 0.80 (Chart Source: Bloomberg).

Nzd/Usd