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Gold Weekly Technical Outlook

Sat, Jan 10 2009, 21:02 GMT
by Oil N' Gold Team

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Comex Gold (GC)

Gold retreated from 892 last week. Daily MACD's cross below signal line is dampening the immediate bullish even though Gold is still holding above mentioned 829.80 support. Short term outlook is turned neutral for the moment. On the upside, above 892 resistance will revive the short term bullish case and bring rally resumption to 936.3 resistance first. On the downside, however, below 829.80 support will serve as an alert that whole rebound from 681 has completed. Further break of 741.2 will confirm the bearish case and bring retest of 681 instead.

In the bigger picture, as discussed before, the preferred case is still that consolidation from 1033.9 has completed at 681, in form of an expanding triangle. Further break of 936.3 resistance will confirm this case and bring retest of 1033.9 high. However, note that recent loss of upside momentum is starting to dampen this view. A break below 829.8 will argue that such consolidation is still in progress and break of 741.2 will bring deeper fall to 681 and below to completion this consolidation. Though, downside is expected to be contained by 61.8% retracement of 371.3 to 1033.9 at 624.41 in such case.

In the long term picture, the corrective structure of price actions from 1033.9 so far is consistent with the view that it's merely consolidation in the larger up trend. With Gold still trading well above 55 months EMA (now at 676.87) as well as trend line support (semi-log chart) at 630.38, it's believed that such long term up trend is still in progress. On resumption Gold should target 1100 psychological resistance next and possibly further to 61.8% projection of 260 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1159. On the downside, however, sustained trading below the mentioned support levels will argue that the long term up trend has completed at 1033.9 and much deeper fall should then be seen.

Comex Gold Continuous Contract Charts

Published on  Sat, Jan 10 2009, 21:03 GMT

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