FXstreet.com

3

0

A Perfect Setup for a Stock Market Correction

Wed, Oct 28 2009, 14:33 GMT
by Claus Vogt

Money and Markets


Since there's no holy grail to analyze financial markets, the best approach is an eclectic one. So I incorporate as many tools as possible in my analysis, including: Fundamental valuations, macroeconomic models, monetary and fiscal policies, interest rate developments, sentiment and momentum indicators, and chart analysis.

Major market turning points are usually characterized by many of these tools. That was clearly the case in 2007 when everything fell neatly into place to call the end of a bull market that had started in 2003.

To a somewhat lesser degree that has also been the case starting this June, signaling a medium-term up trend. And that's why I still expect it to continue during the coming months.

But even the strongest bull markets aren't one-way affairs. They're often interrupted by short-term corrections typically lasting six to eight weeks with prices falling 10 percent to 15 percent. And right now I think such a correction has just begun.

Here's why ...

All Major U.S. Stock Market Indexes Are Bumping Against Important Resistance

These technical resistance points are important enough to warrant the beginning of the first large correction since this medium-term rally began in March 2009.

Let's start with the S&P 500 ...

As you can see on my first chart, this index hit the resistance line going back all the way to its October 2007 high.

chart 1

This trend line is very significant, because it defines the bear market of 2007 to 2009 when the S&P 500 lost 57 percent. And I think it's highly unlikely that this resistance line will be broken through on the very first try.

It's much more likely that the market — which is already tired after the huge runup of the past months — will have to retreat from here to gather enough strength to overcome this technical hurdle.

Next, have a look at chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ...

On a first glance you may think there isn't any resistance below 11,000, especially if you only look back two or three years. But if you go back a bit further, to 2005 and 2004, you can see the massive resistance around the 10,000 area. This marks the lower boundary of a very massive trading range.

chart 2

Next, the Nasdaq Composite ...

The Nasdaq has already reached the equivalent of 1,200 in the S&P or 11,000 in the Dow ... the short-term bottom of 2008, before all hell broke loose. This is a very obvious resistance point.

chart 3

Now, take a look at the Dow Jones Transportation Average ...

The Transports are showing a huge topping formation that began to form at the end of 2005 and lasted until fall 2008. When it broke to the down side, a crash wave ensued.

As you can see on the chart below, this index is now back to the lower boundary of that huge formation, a classic resistance area that's not easily broken.

chart 4

Finally, let's examine the Dow Jones Utility Average ...

The Utilities have been relatively weak since their March low. But they, too, are bumping against resistance now. This index formed a very nice topping formation from 2006 to 2008, thus a bit shorter than its cousin, the Transportation Average. But the result when it was broken was the same: A market crash in 2008.

chart 5

Even though this index has risen much less than the others, it has still entered a massive resistance area stemming from its trading range last fall.

Five Different Resistance Patterns

So here you have it. Five indexes showing very different chart patterns. But they're all hitting major technical resistance areas at the same time! This makes for a very strong picture of a market that'll have difficulties rising any further without a correction first.

In Fact, Other Technical Indicators Are Equally Weak ...

The whole technical picture has become very fragile during the past weeks:

  • Volumes have been dismal: Declining when the market rose and rising when it retreated.
  • Momentum indicators show multiple negative divergences: They did not rise to new relative highs during the past three up-waves in the market.
  • Market breadth shows a similar picture: The ratio of advancing to declining stocks was lower at each of the past up-moves in the market.
  • Put-call-ratios were back to frothy levels: The equity only put-call-ratio fell to 0.52 a few days ago, a level often associated with short-term exhaustion.

All in all I get the impression that the first big correction of this medium-term up trend is already underway. I expect it to last until late November and bring prices back 10 percent to 15 percent.

However, I don't expect this correction to herald a major trend change. Hence, I suggest you consider using it as a buying opportunity.

This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.

Weiss Research, Inc  | 15430 Endeavour Drive. Jupiter, FL 33478-6400 - USA
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com | eletter@moneyandmarkets.com

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

Money and Markets e-newsletter is published by Weiss Research, Inc. Weiss Research, Inc. is strictly a research publishing firm and does not provide individual investment advice to its subscribers. The information we publish is based on our opinions plus our statistical and financial data and independent research. Although we make every effort to provide the most accurate and updated information possible, our information cannot take into consideration your personal finances and goals, and therefore is not intended to be used as customized recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities, or engage in any trading strategy. Such recommendations may only be made by a personal advisor or the broker you select. Most investments involve risk of loss. Although this service makes every effort to protect your principal, you can lose money. Therefore, it is not for all of your funds. If your goal for a certain portion of your funds is strictly capital preservation, we believe you should invest those funds in conservative investments such as short-term U.S. Treasury securities or equivalent. For more information on prudent investing, see also the information available at the websites of the Securities and Exchange Commission at www.sec.gov and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority at www.finra.org. Most of the information we publish is derived from primary sources, including the U.S. government agencies as well as the financial institutions or publicly traded companies we cover. We believe our data sources are accurate, but we do not verify their accuracy independently. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. Nor do we guarantee the success of any investment decision you may make using our data, information, or recommendations. To help us track the performance of this service, subscribers are asked to give their brokers’ permission to share statements with us strictly for the purpose of substantiating the results of the trading. If broker documents are available on a particular trade, we use them to calculate the net, after-commission profits on the trade. Naturally, the results of each subscriber may differ depending on the actual prices achieved and the commissions paid. If broker documents are not available on a trade, we estimate the pre-commission gains based on the market prices following the publication of each recommendation. In addition, examples of potential performance returns may sometimes be based on simulated — not actual — trades, assuming entry and exit prices that could have been obtained during regular market conditions. These entry and exit prices calculated do not reflect or include costs of spreads, market delays, or fees and commissions. Similar returns may or may not be actually achieved by subscribers. While every effort is made to evaluate the actual experience of subscribers, most performance figures must be considered hypothetical, and past results are no guarantee of future performance. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. References to examples of past performance are not intended to provide a total picture of portfolio results. Your results may vary considerably depending on a series of factors, including: (a) when you begin or cease investing, (b) which recommendations you choose to act on, (c) how much money you choose to invest in each recommendation, (d) the specific prices you get, (e) the broker commissions you pay, (f) the interest income you earn on uninvested funds, and (g) the number and magnitude of losing or winning trades you experience. With the exception of exempt securities such as government securities and mutual funds, all Weiss Group, Inc. and Weiss Research, Inc. personnel are prohibited from purchasing any security or investment that is recommended in its publications, per the company’s Personal Securities Transaction (PST) policy. LIMITATION ON WEISS RESEARCH’S LIABILITY Weiss Research’s liability, whether in contract, tort, negligence, or otherwise, shall be limited in the aggregate to direct and actual damages not to exceed the fees received by Weiss from Subscriber. Weiss will not be liable for consequential, incidental, punitive, special, exemplary, or indirect damages resulting directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance upon any material provided by Weiss. Without limitation, Weiss shall not be responsible or liable for any loss or damages related to, either directly or indirectly, (1) any decline in market value or loss of any investment; (2) a subscriber’s inability to use or any delay in accessing the Weiss website or any other source of material provided by Weiss; (3) any absence of material on the Weiss website; (4) Weiss’ failure to deliver or delay in delivering any material or (5) any kind of error in transmission of material; or (6) the use by a subscriber of any research to invest in any way which may be deemed unsuitable in accordance with certain industry standards. Weiss and Subscriber acknowledge that, without limitation, the above-enumerated conditions cannot be the probable cause of any breach of any agreement between Weiss and Subscriber. "No-risk" and "risk-free" refer solely to the subscription price refund policy. DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY ANY AND ALL MATERIAL PROVIDED BY WEISS IS PROVIDED "AS IS" AND WEISS MAKES NO WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING, WITHOUT LIMITATION, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANT ABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.

Related reports

Daily Forex Strategy Briefing - Greenback Gains as Equities Consolidate by CMS Forex
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 01:45 GMT

Forex Market Alerts - Flows - USD/SGD weighed at open; USD/MYR sees pressure from positive GDP by FXMarketAlerts
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 01:41 GMT

Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 00:07 GMT

Currency Majors Technical Perspective by FXstreet.com Independent Analyst Team
Mon, Nov 23 2009, 00:03 GMT

Daily Global Commentary - Partisan Bickering is not the Solution for Fostering Economic Growth by Northern Trust
Sun, Nov 22 2009, 22:24 GMT

indicator, highlighted, stocks

View All

Related content


Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!


FX Solutions LLC
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
Alpari (US), LLC
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
Deutsche Bank
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account
MF Global FXA Securities Ltd.
Contact the broker/FDM
Open a demo account

GET CASH BACK FOR YOUR TRADES!   Learn more about the Pip Rebate Program

Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer.

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.

©2009 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.