FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The established EUR up-trend remains intact but will still have to prove its sustainability, says JP Morgan FX Strategist Thomas Anthonj, noting that the intermediate up-trend of EUR/USD had survived its first test after holding on the key-T-zone between 1.2825/17 and 1.2786/75 (200 DMA/int. 38.2 %/daily trend/38.2 % on higher scale) on October 1st.
According to the Analyst, "The market could clearly be missing a 5th wave advance to 1.3202/52 (daily weekly trend) with the option to extend to the main T-junction on big scale at 1.3487/93 (2012 high/50 %)." Only a break above the 1.32, "would classically confirm a game change on big scale whereas a decisive break below 1.2775 on hourly close (using an 0.5 % filter) would classify the 1.3172 high as an overshooting wave 4 only" Mr. Anthonj adds.
Such a break, according to the trader, "would at least call for a broader 2nd.-or Bwave countertrend decline to 1.2607 (int. 50 %) and to 1.2309 (int. 76.4 %) at a later stage whereas a decisive break below the latter would get former lows from 2010 and 2005 at 1.1876 and at 1.1641 back into focus."
According to the Analyst, "The market could clearly be missing a 5th wave advance to 1.3202/52 (daily weekly trend) with the option to extend to the main T-junction on big scale at 1.3487/93 (2012 high/50 %)." Only a break above the 1.32, "would classically confirm a game change on big scale whereas a decisive break below 1.2775 on hourly close (using an 0.5 % filter) would classify the 1.3172 high as an overshooting wave 4 only" Mr. Anthonj adds.
Such a break, according to the trader, "would at least call for a broader 2nd.-or Bwave countertrend decline to 1.2607 (int. 50 %) and to 1.2309 (int. 76.4 %) at a later stage whereas a decisive break below the latter would get former lows from 2010 and 2005 at 1.1876 and at 1.1641 back into focus."
