The Italian general elections, upon final confirmation, will likely be celebrated in February. Former primer minister Silvio Berlusconi is to run as centre-right candidate, and with the threat of an 'Il Cavaliere'-led anti-euro campaign looming, traders have logically turned cautious. The leading centre-left PD party is still in control, with Berlusconi's centre-right PDL behind by over 16 points.
According to NAB: "Prospects of Italian bond yields spiking higher when Europe opens is driving the euro lower. EUR bears would though do well to note that the People of Liberty party currently trails the centre-left Democratic party by 20% points. Plus, the re-appearance of Mr Berlusconi to the centre of the Italian political stage may well prompt Mr Monti to make him himself available for re-selection as PM after elections now seen likely to occur next February, three months earlier than originally intended."
At this stage, reservations to bid the Euro are high as the mere thought of a Berlusconi comeback would be destructive for the austeritarian path taken by Italy under Monti's technocrat supervision, posing a real threat in worsening the country's finances. The possible electoral results remain uncertain, although most early comments are anticipating a divided parliament, which may inevitable lead to a coalition government lacking determination to implement key structural reforms.