After both the US Senate and the US House of Representatives approved the bill, UBS strategist Gareth Berry, notes: "Tax hikes will still happen, but these will be diluted. Unemployment benefits are to be extended until end-2013. Planned spending cuts (which were due to take effect in January) will be postponed for two months."
Along the road, however, further unresolved issues remain, with the deadline to raise the federal borrowing limit being just 2 month away. As Mr. Berry adds, "there will be another showdown within weeks which has the potential to be even more disruptive (given the US debt ceiling must be raised at the same time if technical default is to be avoided)." However, for now, "the conditions seem right for a moderate celebratory brief rally in risk assets, and we would be reluctant to fight this just yet."
The natural behaviour on the market post the fiscal cliff final deal through the House during the Asian session on Tuesday was to engage on a textbook sharp sell-off of the US Dollar, with the unload of the greenback sending the Euro as high as $1.3290, where heavy sell orders have been reported. The strong upmove threatens the 1.33/1.3305 limits, with a clear break higher raising the potential for further upside acceleration ahead towards 1.3375, March highs.
The sustainability of Euros above $1.3250 will now be key to understand the possibility of a clean break higher, a scenario awaited by committed longs. Traders should note that since the first test of 1.33 on Dec 19, the price has visited levels above 1.3250 in 4 occasions from a H4 perspective, where rejections were quite abrupt, suggesting an uncomfortably high Euro/US Dollar exchange without a cliff deal. Now the bill has been cleared, an accumulation of H1 candles /2x or more H4 candles above 1.3250 will hint buyers are setting the ground for a possible impulsive move up aiming to trip vulnerable stop loss orders.