In their analysis, HSBC notes that the combination of four factors should drag the AUD lower in coming months. Those factors are 1 The Eurozone is far from being out of the woods. 2 US growth remains sluggish. 3 China continues to cool. 4 Commodity prices have peaked.
"With global growth below trend, China's growth shifting, albeit slowly, from being investment to consumption led and the global supply of commodities expected to grow in coming years, the commodity currency argument points to a weaker AUD in the medium- to longer term", they say.