FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “We expect US growth of 2.2% in 2012 and 1.9% in 2013. On a sequential basis, growth should settle at 1.7% in 2012 Q4 after adjusting for the effects of Hurricane Sandy, and fall to 1.5% in 2013 Q1. We then expect a pick-up to 2.5% sequential growth in the second half of 2013. Despite weak growth, we expect the unemployment rate to fall to 7.7% by end-2013 as long-term unemployment continues to depress labour force participation.”
“Our forecast of around 2.0% growth over the coming quarters is supported by factors that should prevent growth from falling further from here. These include strong real disposable income, a gradual housing recovery, easier financial conditions and an end to the inventory drag on manufacturing. However, we worry that the ‘fiscal cliff’ at year-end could potentially weigh more heavily on financial markets and the real economy.” the team asserts.
“Our forecast of around 2.0% growth over the coming quarters is supported by factors that should prevent growth from falling further from here. These include strong real disposable income, a gradual housing recovery, easier financial conditions and an end to the inventory drag on manufacturing. However, we worry that the ‘fiscal cliff’ at year-end could potentially weigh more heavily on financial markets and the real economy.” the team asserts.
