Durable goods orders declines by 13.2% in August. August figures are the largest decline since January 2009 and the worst drop since January 2007. US GDP has been revised down to 1.3% in the Q2 from the 1.7% previously estimated. Pending home sales have fallen 2.6% between July and August. Yearly data has slowdown to 10.7% YoY in August from 15.2% YoY in July.
"consumers do not appear worried yet," points the Rabobank team speaking as contrast with the fundamental situation and fiscal cliff risk. "At the turn of the year, the US economy will face the fiscal cliff. Democrats and Republicans are expected to shrink its size, but the negotiations will not start before the November 6 elections."
"There is evidence that businesses have become more concerned about the fiscal cliff during the summer. In contrast, consumers do not appear worried yet," Rabobank points. "The divergence between business and consumer alertness regarding the fiscal cliff is reflected in the rapid decline in capital goods orders, while personal consumption spending is still growing at a decent pace."
As far as businesses are concerned on this, they will "intend to slow down hiring in the coming months." And this "should undermine consumer confidence and lead to a slowdown in consumer spending," comments Rabobank.
"Therefore," the bank concludes, "we expect to see a sharp slowdown in the US economy in 2012Q4."