Euro sentiment regressed as both current account and trade surpluses widened in June against market consensus.
From €10.9B (revised from €10.3B), the seasonally adjusted current account surplus rose to €12.7B, instead of narrowing to €7.8B. The non-seasonally adjusted moved from €-2.5B deficit (revised from €-3.2B) to €15.7B surplus.
The non-seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose from €6.9B (revised from €7.1B) to €14.9B, while the seasonally adjusted data also surprised on the upside by widening from €6.8B (revised from €6.3B) to €10.5B, instead of narrowing to €5.4B.
The EUR/JPY has reached 98.39 high so far. Commerzbank analysts are still bearish on the EUR/JPY while the cross doesn’t close a day above the 55-day MA, at 97.99: “As long as no daily New York close above the latter level is being made, we will retain our bearish outlook. Should this not be the case, the 98.335 late June low will be targeted before our still anticipated medium term decline takes shape”, wrote analyst Axel Rudolph.