The EUR/USD closed the Monday session at intra-day highs around 1.2940, extending its recovery from the 1.2885 level reached in the European session and posting 0.40% daily gains. As for the short term, the EUR/USD is yet stalled around 1.2940, immediate resistance level. "Indicators in the mentioned time frame surged to positive territory, yet remain flat, showing not enough upward momentum," comments Valeria Bednarik, FXstreet.com Chief Analyst. "The rally may extend near 1.2970 if dollar remains under pressure, yet more gains seem unlikely at the time being."
U.S. stocks finished Monday with gains amid fiscal cliff developments and leaving behind the effervescence out of the political arena in Italy. The Dow recorded its four positive day in row. The Dollar Index grinded lower on Monday as risk appetite has prevailed among investors, although it keeps trading above the psychological mark at 80.00
Against the Greenback, FXstreet.com's analyst Richard Lee states that Monti’s resignation is no doubt a blow for the Euro. "The prime minister was seen as working alongside fellow EU leaders" while "the scandal riddled politician is likely to entertain the idea of pulling back on European austerity and questioning the necessity of EU membership."
"The fundamental outlook will likely reinforce technical resistance at 1.2965 in the short term," Lee adds. "Lending to continued bearish declines towards the 1.2800 round figure support."
On a wider picture, the Rabobank analyst team believes that the EUR/USD will range bound between 1.28-1.30 on 1m view. According to Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, the Bank expects "that the FOMC will step up its QE policy soon and maintain pressure on the USD."
In this line, the Fxstreet.con banks, experts and brokers forecast expects the 1.2800 as 1-month target and as low as 1.2674 in the 3-month horizon. Current reaction in EUR/USD is not seen as an opportunity to buy if we take Friday's target at 1.2928.
Meanwhile, in a technical point of view, City Index's analyst Ashraf Laidi expects the "EURUSD to rebound towards 1.32, followed by $1.33-34 nearing December." Laidi states that "the ensuing reverse Head & Shoulder formation appearing in EURUSD is a classic (and rare) bullish formation, with clear delineation of: i) required preceding selloff; ii) isolated low creating a left shoulder; iii) renewed sell off to create a bottom or a head; iv) subsequent peak creating a right shoulder; and v) a straight neckline coinciding with trendline resistance."
"The theoretical target interpolated from the reverse H&S suggests $1.38-40 is viable in by end of Q1 2013," adds Laidi.
The day ahead
As for tomorrow, investors must pay attention to the German November ZEW Economic Sentiment, the US October Trade Balance among others. Specially the ZEW survey could pressure the EUR/USD to the upside and to move higher off of 1.2900 support.
Better than expected results will bolster the EURUSD pair higher, "and should be above current estimates of a -11.4 reading," commented Richard Lee in a recent preview. "The improvement would stand as the third improvement in the last four months and bolster notions of a recovery."
"Expect the 1.2900 support to be the springboard to a test of 1.3070 October 5th session high if this happens," Lee concluded.
And off course, keep on mind that FOMC will hold its monthly monetary policy on Wednesday, the last interest rate and policy decision before Christmas.