FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Commerzbank analysts point to an important inter-year pivot at 78.46/77.92 (1992 low, the 61.8% retracement of the move from 2008 and the 50% retracement of the move from 2011), also the 2012 low and they expect a reversal there. “This is our favoured scenario, the market is currently showing signs of recovery from the 78.60 level”, wrote analyst Axel Rudolph, adding that resumption of upside pressure can only be confirmed after closing above 81.05 (2-month downtrend), where attention would move to 84.10 high.

“However at this stage should 77.92 be eroded, we are unable to rule out a slide all the way back to the 2008-2012 support line, located at 73.46”, Rudolph added, expecting there a major reversal as it's the base of the 4 year converging range.