"The break out from the sideways range trade (a double top) targets a drop to the upper 1.24 area. A second weekly close below the 40-day MA supports the negative outlook now. Early week gains next week should be contained to the 1.2780 area. Only a move back above 1.2806 takes the EUR to firmer technical ground" Mr. Osborne notes.
From a broader perspective, Shaun adds. "Failure to sustain medium-term gains through 1.30/1.31 looks the most costly development for the EUR bull case on the weekly charts. The 1.3096 trend line remains a potential bull trigger (neckline of a potential weekly inverse Head & Shoulders) but we are a long way from there at the moment. Weekly support in the low 1.26 area would give the H&S formation a bit of symmetry and bolster its credentials but we are not holding our breath."