They suspect that NZD (and perhaps AUD in sympathy) could get another boost when we hear from the RNBZ near the end of today´s North American session. The bank is universally expected to hold the cash rate steady at 2.5%, but there is also widespread anticipation that they will have a more dovish sounding statement. Given the new Governor´s comments recently though, they feel that there is a better likelihood that we will see a re-iteration of the ´wait-and-see´ stance which should keep the bid under the NZD.
Elsewhere amongst majors, they note that EUR managed to make another marginal new high overnight, but has sold off in recent hours and continues to be better sold heading into the North American session. It is off it´s highs, not just against USD, but also several of its key crosses, notably GBP, JPY and CHF.
The team notes that European PMIs were mixed but a somewhat weak Spanish debt auction has been credited with a certain degree of the weight on the Euro. The biggest concern for the currency, in their opinion, is the upcoming ECB meeting tomorrow, which they think could be more dovish than the market is expecting, with even the off-chance of a rate cut.
Positioning in the meantime could continue to see the EUR under pressure with 1.3050 near yesterdays low the nearest foothold on the downside ahead of more significant support at 1.3010-15. Elsewhere, they note that USD/JPY did not manage to push below the recently mentioned key support at 81.69. They finish by writing, “That is constructive, but we will need further evidence that an extension higher is in the cards in the near term. For now, we could be left with a range trade.”