FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to Julian Jessop, Head of Commodities Research at Capital Economics, “The outcome of the US Presidential election is unlikely to have a major impact on commodity markets, however there may still be some fall-out if Romney wins – Romney’s plan to accelerate energy independence might depress oil prices. Furthermore, more aggressive policies towards Iran and China could raise geopolitical risks. Finally, speculation of a premature end to QE3 also has the potential to worry the markets.”
Some stipulations to these finalities naturally exist however, as neither Obama nor Romney have provided a detailed manifesto explaining what they would actually do if they won on November 6. Most of their policy statements are of the “motherhood and apple pie” variety – hard to disagree with but lacking any real substance.
What’s more, any commitments made during the heat of a campaign always need to be taken with a pinch of salt, and the elections for Congress may also be important (a third of Senate seats and all those in the House will be contested). The Republicans have a large majority in the House while the Democrats control the Senate. “A Republican clean-sweep is possible but it is more likely that Congress will remain divided, which would limit any President’s room for maneuver. The bigger the margin of victory for either candidate, though, the greater his authority – including in negotiating a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff.” Jessop warns.
Some stipulations to these finalities naturally exist however, as neither Obama nor Romney have provided a detailed manifesto explaining what they would actually do if they won on November 6. Most of their policy statements are of the “motherhood and apple pie” variety – hard to disagree with but lacking any real substance.
What’s more, any commitments made during the heat of a campaign always need to be taken with a pinch of salt, and the elections for Congress may also be important (a third of Senate seats and all those in the House will be contested). The Republicans have a large majority in the House while the Democrats control the Senate. “A Republican clean-sweep is possible but it is more likely that Congress will remain divided, which would limit any President’s room for maneuver. The bigger the margin of victory for either candidate, though, the greater his authority – including in negotiating a deal to avoid the fiscal cliff.” Jessop warns.
