Ahead of the aforementioned events, Strategist Axel Rudolph at Commerzbank argues that rallies in the cross should be well contained in the boundaries of the key level at 1.2900, where the 55-day moving average sits. He adds “the cross is revisiting the 200-day moving average at 1.2806 and could reach the 1.2825 11th October low and also the resistance line at 1.2853 before coming off again… to 1.2661 and the area around 1.2480”.
… Which ‘fiscal cliff’?
The specter of the so-called ‘fiscal-cliff’ in the US economy has lost part of its gloomy presence among investors since Friday, when an optimistic mood was evident between the US President B.Obama and the Congressional leaders. Positive comments that followed have extended the upbeat tone in risk appetite to the markets, markedly improving the risk-associated currencies/assets, in detriment of further inflows to safe havens, characteristic that prevailed in past sessions. However, there is still a fairly long way before we can see a solution to this matter, and although the path would surely meander around many unexpected obstacles, it is always better to face it with a more determined attitude.
The implications and back-and-forths in this matter would surely weight on the cross via the USD flows, although its preponderance has somehow waned recently.
… Ahead in the day, and Wednesday’s docket
Spanish auction of 12m and 18m Letras would test once more the investors’ confidence ahead of US Building Permits and Housing Starts, trying to follow the path after yesterday’s big improvement out of the Existing Home Sales. Chief B.Bernanke will give a speech later on during the North American session, carrying weight per se, as usual.
Ahead of the Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, an empty docket awaits for the euro zone, while the weekly report on the labor market and the preliminary manufacturing PMI prints will be released in the US.